why aren't all 30 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kuruvilla: Next-gen commerce platforms cannot be incremental improvements on Shopify
“And it's not going to be an incremental improvement of Shopify's template, you know, like e-commerce architecture or Salesforce e-commerce platform. It is something you ought to go back and build from the ground up where you have a brain, it understands everyt…”
Insight
Stevenson: Legal storefronts failed because lawyers cannot drive web traffic
“Lawyers could get this thing up and running, but they had no idea how to drive traffic to it. You know, they're kind of chasing this mirage of, and I'm sure Shopify has this issue too. They probably have tons of people setting up stores and no traffic going to…”
Insight
Delivering customer value matters more than market size for startup success
“And the thing you got to prioritize about all else, it's kind of like value is bigger than market size, like prioritize delivering value. And that tends to take care of itself”
Insight
Nike, Microsoft, and Shopify prove steady growth beats massive early funding
“The, probably the most proven way of building a great company is sustainable, consistent growth. You look at Nike, you look at Microsoft, you look at Shopify. These were businesses that what they actually did was they doubled and they doubled and they doubled …”
Assertion Supported
Srugo: Shopify risked its entire $100,000 cash balance on a 2010 contest
“And so a 100,000 dollars back then was all of the money that they had in their balance sheet. That was all the cash that they had. And they put it all on the line to launch this, build a business competition.”
Insight
Khazzam: Longtime big-company top performers rarely fit early-stage startups
“Most people who are eight players at really big companies and have been there for a long time are probably not a fit.”
Insight
Abbott: Matching Amazon Prime requires pooling inventory across thousands of merchants
“The only way is you have to pool thousands of merchants of inventory To then be able to forward deploy it and distribute it and offer every single one of them a service comparable to what Amazon offers, right?”
Opinion
Abbott: Shopify is the most merchant-obsessed company I've met
“Shopify is a very merchant-obsessed company. I actually never met a company as obsessed with customers and merchants specifically as Shopify is.”
Insight
Joseph Lee: Seafood e-commerce requires complex variable poundage tracking unlike Shopify
“The way you transact, the way you sell products when it comes to fish, seafood is fundamentally different when it comes to when you compare it to, like, selling t-shirts, right? So you sell things by the poundage. You need to be able to factor in perishability…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lutsky: All of Shopify's engineers rely on Graphite daily
“Having like All of Shopify's engineers, like, relying on, on Graphite Daily is, ah, it's really exciting to see.”
Assertion Supported
Robinson: Klaviyo succeeded by attaching to Shopify early as Shopify 1,000x'd
“Klaviyo decided to be the go-to tool for Shopify when Shopify was eighty-five million in value, right? They were like a Series B or something, or Series A. It's probably Series B at the time. Maybe a Series A company. Shopify, as Klaviyo grew to IPO, grew to a…”
Insight
Reeves: Essential SMB software can build $100B+ companies
“Companies like Shopify, Square, Intuit have proven that you can build, like, hundred billion dollar plus companies if the numbers are working right, if you're medicine, not vitamin for a small business customer”
Insight
Viral startup ads must highlight pain points over product solutions
“All of these ads, They actually don't really focus on the solution. They don't focus on why their product is so great. They focus on the pain point”
Assertion Contradicted
Srugo: Shopify burned only $3 million of net cash before its IPO
“From the time that they started to the time they went public, they raised a hundred million dollars in total. And when they went public, They had ninety seven million dollars on their balance sheet. So the net cash to use in all that time was just three millio…”
Assertion Supported
Srugo: Bessemer’s 2010 memo gave Shopify 3% odds of a $400M exit
“The absolute peak that Bessemer thought of at the time of the investment was that Shopify might, in the best of cases, become a four hundred million dollar company. And they assigned a three percent probability to that outcome.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Senkut: Early Shopify dedicated two top engineers to an internal data warehouse
“When I showed up in Ottawa, Toby told me that, hey, they had these amazing engineers and the team was by the way, like less than 50 people or barely 50 people. And he said, I took two of my best engineers and we're building a real time data warehouse.”
Disclosure
Lütke: My original goal for Shopify was a 20-person company
“My intention was to build twenty-people company. That's what I wanted to do.”
Assertion Supported
Abbott: Shopify merchants account for about 12% of all U.S. e-commerce
“Shopify itself now is, I believe, 12% of all U.S. E-commerce, you know, just all the merchants on Shopify. It might be more or less, I don't remember the last number yet.”
Assertion Supported
Lutsky: Shopify, Snowflake, and Figma run code reviews on Graphite
“Today we have companies like Shopify, Snowflake, Figma, many of the largest and fastest moving teams out there that that run their code review process and their outer loop on Graphite.”
Assertion Supported
Pablo: Tobi Lütke's initial Shopify goal was just a 20-person business
“You look at, you know, Shopify and Toby, and he actually is quoted Saying that his goal, like we're looking back at, you know, let's say 2005 ish, when he was starting, his goal was to build a 20 person super profitable business.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robinson: GetEmails Generated $10K MRR in Week One from $5K Facebook Ads
“Put it on Facebook, ran it to a Shopify audience, spent 5000 dollars and got 10 K monthly recurring revenue in week one.”
Disclosure
Fullscript was built as Shopify with pre-integrated healthcare products
“Why don't we solve that problem by rebuilding Shopify with the products and the distribution already built in? Because we already know the product set that a practitioner requires. And that's basically what we did.”
Assertion Supported
Shopify bet its entire bank balance on a $100K 2010 contest
“This was all of the money that Shopify had in their bank balance and Toby goes for it.”
Assertion Supported
Shopify's $100K contest yielded 1,350 businesses and a one-month payback
“1350 new businesses come on Shopify as a result. If you know their business model, they charge about a hundred dollars a month. Let's just round it out. A hundred dollars a month times 1350 new businesses means that they make 130,500 dollars on month one. That…”
Assertion Supported
Srugo: Shopify's 2010 contest yielded 1,350 businesses and $3.5M in sales
“It actually, he got a 1350 new businesses created on Shopify through this build a business competition. And that generated 3.5 million dollars in gross sales.”
Opinion
Srugo: Early Yahoo and eBay stores lacked vision to be e-commerce platforms
“Yahoo stores first and foremost is like a search engine. EBay first and foremost is an auctions marketplace. They were both doing stores, but neither of them had the vision to become platform for commerce.”
Assertion Supported
Srugo: Shopify reached $2.5 million in revenue and profitability by late 2009
“So now we're like end of 2009, they're doing 2.5 million dollars in revenue up from a million dollars the year before. And you know, they're a cashflow positive company.”
Assertion Supported
Srugo: Shopify fueled growth by offering web agencies 20% lifetime revenue share
“Kind of agency that would help you with your website and say, look, if you build on Shopify, we'll give you 20% of the lifetime revenue of that account.”
Disclosure
Koho Hired Shopify's First Coach Who Scaled Company to 3,000 Staff
“Coach number four that we worked with. We hired him because he had been the coach at Shopify and the first coach at Shopify from when they went from 60 to 3000 people.”
Assertion Partly supported
Srugo: Shopify raised $250,000 from angel investor John Phillips around 2007
“And about at this point, this is like 2007 or so they raise 250,000 dollars from an angel investor in Ottawa called John Phillips.”