The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Reid Hoffman: Calls for a Global Six-Month AI Pause Cannot Work
“You don't set up a flare and say, everyone should pause for six months. Oh, look, eight billion people paused. On your theory of the universe, the UN would be a highly functioning organization that we would all use for a whole bunch of things. It doesn't work.”
Hoffman: AI Improves Humanity's Overall Risk Portfolio Against Pandemics and Climate
“When you get to pandemic, maybe the only way to solve pandemic is AI. Well, a certain help for climate is AI. It's net, I think, strongly in the positive column. It doesn't to say that it might not add some existential risk characteristics to the overall portf…”
Hoffman: AI cannot be built by UN committees, academics lack building experience
“And you just can't have AI built by UN committee. It just doesn't exist. And it's one of the things that academics mostly don't understand because they've never, most of them, not all, of course, but most have never built anything, don't really understand how …”
Hoffman: Intense AI regulation enshrines the past and harms humanity
“Generally speaking, regulation is enshrining the past against the future, and if you look at every industry that goes really intense in regulation, it's, it slows down intensely on innovation, and if you say, well, that's what we should be doing in AI, it's li…”
Reid Hoffman: GPT-4 Is Superintelligent in Key Capabilities and Not Alarming
“GBD-IV is already super intelligent relative to a number of human capabilities, is actually not that alarming. Go play with GBD-IV. It's not alarming. It's actually enhancing and amplifying in various ways.”
Hoffman: I Refused to Sign the 22-Word AI Existential Risk Statement
“This is one of the reasons why I didn't sign the 22 word statement of, you know, AI should be treated as an existential risk along with climate change, pandemic, et cetera.”
Hoffman: AI Critics Trumpeting Negativity May Do More Harm Than Good
“The critics think they're virtuous because they go, oh, there's this danger that we should trumpet, and you're like, well, actually, in fact, you may be doing more harm than you're doing good in your attempt to be virtuous, because by trumpeting the negativity…”
Hoffman: Novel AI architectures replacing transformers are over two years away
“I think the new architectures, there's a bunch of stuff that I've been trying to work with, but I don't think new architectures will be one to two years. I'd be surprised if it was.”
Hoffman: English and Chinese will become the most significant programming languages
“The most significant programming language in the next few years is gonna turn into English, and then of course rapidly followed by Chinese, because the broad use of the language and being able to create things, computational artifacts, Code, et cetera.”
Hoffman: The EU AI Act is sacrificing the future for the past
“Maybe this is top of mind from the EU act stuff, which, you know, always makes me think that they're trying to hold onto the past so ferociously that they're just completely willing to sacrifice the future anyway.”
Hoffman: In 2019, I Told CAA Dystopian AI Stories Damage Humanity
“And one of the things in 2019, I went and talked to all the CA people saying, look, you're damaging humanity with all these stories. You should put the machine also on the positive category.”
Hoffman: Mid- and upper-level white-collar jobs will transform first from AI
“You know, mid-level white-collar jobs including some upper-level white-collar jobs, are one of the ones that are gonna get transformed first and most, most ferociously.”
Hoffman: Inflection is the only serious team building personal AI companions
“And as far as I can tell, I mean, you know, you guys are both highly active AI investors. I think, you know, on that path, we're the ones, you know, who are most like of the serious teams. We're the ones who are dedicated to that path versus other paths.”
Hoffman: AI is potentially the largest tech transformation in human history
“Well I mean, the obvious thing about AI that everyone probably listening to this podcast already agrees with is that it's somewhere between the largest, you know, tech transformation of our lifetime and perhaps the largest tech transformation of human history.”
Hoffman: AI will not transform everything next year
“And, you know, I think everyone tends to a little bit over predict, like how quickly things like everything will change next year and that's not going to happen. But then they tend to under predict, you know, 1020 years in some ways in terms of how the transit…”
Hoffman: AI creates path to medical assistants and tutors on 5B smartphones
“Well, actually, in fact, we have a line of sight to a medical assistant on every smartphone. That's five billion smartphones in the world. And, you know, much less than a billion people have access to doctors. You have a line of sight to a tutor on every subje…”
Hoffman: Fleet turnover limits autonomous trucks to under 50% for a decade
“Well, if every truck manufacturer in the world basically started manufacturing AV trucks tomorrow, right, it'll be 10 years before more than half of the trucks on the road are AV trucks.”
Hoffman: Every individual will have their own personal AI companion
“And so one of the things we came to was every individual will have a personal intelligence, a pie that's for them. Right? That's for Sarah, that's for Elad, that's for Reed, and helps you navigate whatever the particular version of your life is, right?”
Hoffman: Pre-release GPT-4 gave useless MBA-style advice on AI investing
“When I first got access to GBD-IV you know, months before it was publicly accessed, because I was on the OpenAI board, I sat down and said how can I, Reid Hoffman, make money through investing in artificial intelligence? Because I just wanted to try it. And it…”
Hoffman: AI cybersecurity and workforce transition tools are underdone startup areas
“There's areas that I think are underdone that I would really like to see. Cybersecurity with AI. You know, I think it would be very good to have that relative to society. I think that the notion of you know, how do we make these transitions for the white colla…”