The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,312 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 43 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tan: Intel Foundry turnaround will begin surfacing around 2031 or 2032
“So those are the things will take longer time, but I think by 32,032, 31, 32, I think I was starting to surface up.”
Tan: Setting goal of 10x shareholder return at Intel within a decade
“So it's hard to do that at Intel because the base is bigger. So I kind of said, okay, let's do it at 10 X, you know, and then, and five years, 10 years, we can Do Xx. I think it's a good return. Being a venture capital at heart. That's kind of my goal.”
Zuckerberg: Building complex biology tools requires a 10-15 year non-profit horizon
“If you're building tools that are this complicated, you kind of want to have a 10 to 15 year time horizon on, on building out these efforts. And then the scale of capital required. I mean, I guess there's no rule that said that you couldn't do it as like an in…”
Zuckerberg: A Centralized Superintelligence Will Not Solve Science
“Our vision is not that there's going to be like some central super intelligence that solves all of science.”
Zuckerberg: AI progress requires only a couple dozen researchers, not hundreds
“In order to make progress in AI, you don't need like many, many hundreds of AI researchers or thousands or anything like that. I think you can really make progress with you know, a very strong group of a dozen or a couple dozen people.”
Nadella: Many open-weight models look good on benchmarks but fail in practice
“In fact, that's one of the challenges of a lot of the open-weight models is they look great on one benchmark or two, but they're not great on practice.”
Nadella: Public AI benchmarks are gamed; companies need private evaluations
“Most importantly, you'll have private evals because we know all the evals out there are good, interesting, But they're not really that critical at this point because they're all can be maxed. And so the point is each company will have its own private eval.”
Nadella: Within six months, AI autopilots will routinely work overnight for users
“I'm positive that six months from now, we'll all be saying, oh, wow, like, all through night, the night, there was a bunch of stuff that all these autopilots that I have working on my behalf with my delegated authority, so to speak, right? I can, sort of, give…”
Nadella: Multimodal agent harnesses achieve higher real-world performance
“I would claim that you can have a multimodal harness that can in fact be more performant in the real world.”
Nadella: Private AI evals may be an enterprise's biggest IP
“Every company having private evals may be the biggest IP, right? I think about it, like what's that private eval that you can then use even a frontier model to hill climb on and not leak the traces. Maybe one of the biggest drivers of IP.”
Nadella: Platforms must enable custom intelligence layers, not single-model worship
“That idea that you can build a platform layer that someone else can then extend out and build their own intelligence layer in this case, I think is everything right without it. Why have a developer conference? I can just come and have you all sort of just wors…”
Nadella: AI agents capturing tacit knowledge belong on corporate balance sheets
“So if you have a, like if you take in teams, I have a bunch of agents doing work and a bunch of humans doing work and the traces between those, that is really important context of how that enterprise is creating value. Then that goes back to train, not a gener…”
Nadella: AI agent usage of Microsoft 365 could exceed human end users
“So the value creation opportunity now in the agent world is in fact, 10 X more, but it does require us to have, for example, there's going to be usage around M. Three, six, five, right? Which is going to be perhaps more than even the end users.”
Nadella: Per-user subscriptions will persist alongside consumption pricing
“So subscriptions, I think, are going to be there, per user is going to be there. Then the next big thing will be consumption.”
Nadella: Enterprise customers reject outcome pricing once results materialize
“Most people love outcomes until they have an outcome, because once you have an outcome, it's like giving away royalty, right? I mean, I've talked to customers who love, you know, outcome based pricing, and I say, I'm all in until they, oh my God, like, what ar…”
Nadella: AI leverage will produce maximum returns for generalist roles
“I think the generalist role is going to be the most exciting, right? Because the leverage of a generalist is where we are going to see the maximum returns, right?”
Human-in-the-loop oversight will fail as AI agent actions scale exponentially
“Things that we thought might be useful in the past, like A human in the loop. Now that you're going to have a hundred X, a thousand X, a million X of these actions, that's not going to work.”
Independent AI oversight will become a $100 billion market opportunity
“So I think it will be crucially important if you have AI companies that are 10 trillion dollar companies, we think you want a company that is not the vendor of the AI itself to oversee and help you control what AI is doing. And we think that's an opening that'…”
Smarter AI models will make mechanistic interpretability and tracking more effective
“But as we're starting to have models that are much smarter than us, at least in some important ways, we think that we'll be able to start tracking mechanistic capability much more effectively.”
Feldman: Cerebras is 15 to 20 times faster than GPUs at inference
“And right now we're the fastest at inference, not by a little bit, but by a lot. 1518, 20 X faster than GPUs.”
Feldman: The market for slow AI inference will become zero
“How big is the market for slow search? It's zero. How big is the market for dial-up internet? It's zero. That's how big the market for slow inference will be.”
Feldman: Cerebras is the only pure-play public AI company
“We would be the first and only, for a period of time, AI pure play. We are the only company that, that you can, a hundred percent of the revenue, this exact market. There's no gaming, there's no graphics, there's no PC, that, this is it.”
Feldman: Cerebras signed a $20B+ OpenAI deal in 4.5 weeks
“For a, 20 plus billion dollar deal to do it in four and a half weeks was exceptional.”
Helberg: Philippines is granting 4,000 acres for forward-deployed industrial base
“We made this arrangement with them where they are granting us 4000 acres, which is obviously very substantial. It's a third of the size of Manhattan. To do a very large industrial build out that's one of a kind that, that helps combine the predictability and c…”
Helberg: Pax Silica's private-sector model is more ethical than state-led alliances
“And because we're approaching it by putting our companies in the driver's seat it's actually, you know, in, in a lot of ways, it's much more ethical because the deal is structured in a way that's really meant to be you know, a true joint venture and one that w…”
Helberg: AI is driving over a third of US GDP growth
“You know, the American economy has been proven incredibly resilient, and a big part of that is AI being this incredible, you know, incredibly strong economic force that is already fueling over a third of our economic GDP growth right here in the US.”
Helberg: Replicating Semiconductor Fabs Abroad Makes No Sense Before US Completion
“There's a whole host of reasons why it wouldn't necessarily make sense to try to replicate that elsewhere because it's highly technical. The global talent supply of talent available in that area is very finite and limited. And it's also extremely capital inten…”
Helberg: US will resolve minerals pricing issue before term ends
“And I'm incredibly confident that we actually will resolve the pricing issue For the minerals market before the end of this administration.”
Helberg: State Department will use VC investments to guide government capital
“We actually would really love for the venture capital ecosystem to help be part of the solution because I think, you know, you guys are better positioned to assess, you know, who are the best players in the space. And we can take that, you know, as an importan…”
Helberg: Regulating model distillation is critical to protecting AI investments
“The whole model distillation debate, which is super important to actually protect the economic value of these hundreds of billions of dollars in investments in AI companies.”
Taubman: 30-40% AI efficiency gives service businesses software-like incremental margins
“What we've done with AI is when you make your existing teams 30, 40% more efficient and they can handle more customers it changes the whole mindset of the organization. Now you're growing, you look like a software company now where you're now growing with High…”
Srivastava: AI Defensibility Comes from Workflow Integration, Not Models Alone
“To the extent that that is encoded in a model, I think a lot of their business will be at risk, but to the extent that it is encoded in workflows that is where they will be able to develop mode.”
Srivastava: Frontier Labs Lack the User Signal to Displace Vertical Apps
“My argument would be here is that actually, you know, it's very, very hard for a frontier model company to go to either way at that, because they just don't have access to that user signal, and what will happen over time is the folks who have access to that us…”
Srivastava: AI-Native Startups Represent 99% of Total Inference Call Volume
“I think if you look by inference count, it'd be 99% the full.”
Srivastava: Startups should not do post-training before achieving product-market fit
“Hey, go find, go prove to yourself with the best in class model that you have something worth optimizing. And I think, you know, A lot of, you know, if a customer comes to us, was that meme, which was like, it was like two years ago, it feels like there's no G…”
Srivastava: Global Compute Supply Will Fall Short of LLM Demand for Decade
“I think, like, there's no world in which there's enough compute to, you know, get the amount of value that we want to get out of our limbs in the next five to 10 years.”
Srivastava: AI will lead to more software rather than fewer software engineers
“There's all this stuff about there being less software engineers, and I think we just build more software. I think we just build a ton more software”
McDermott: Replicating a ServiceNow app with LLMs costs 10x more
“We've actually done the math on this. And so for a simple application on our platform, it would be 10 times greater in cost to try to replicate it with a language model.”
McDermott: Cybercrime is a $1 trillion per month global problem
“U.S. Is the world's largest economy, China's number two, and cybercrime is number three. It's a one trillion dollar a month problem.”
McDermott: Single-function SaaS faces high AI risk; platforms remain safe
“So if you think about companies that do something that span multiple departments or are a serious system of record,
That is very hard to replicate.
They're safe, and they'll, they'll be a part of the future.
If you're serving one function, and what you do is n…”
McDermott: 2.2 billion AI agents will enter the workforce within years
“There'll be 2.2 billion of these agents entering the workforce in the next couple of years. And so, you know, there's going to be a lot more agents than there will be people.”
Allaire: Global economy will depend on the US dollar for 30 to 50 years
“Our existing economic system, like, it does depend on really major reserve currencies like the dollar, and my view is, like, that's going to continue for a while maybe 30, 4050 years.”
Allaire: AI agents will conduct and transact white-collar work with each other
“More and more of the actual work that is done in the real economy especially in in, in, you know, kind of the, what we call the white collar economy, but in, in many, many areas of service and delivery and so on, like so much of that is going to be conducted B…”
Allaire: USDC is the world's most transacted digital currency
“So now today, like you know, you actually can look at like transaction volumes of USDC, which is by far the most transacted digital currency in the world, way more than anything else.”
Allaire: Arc blockchain uses a known validator set of financial infrastructure firms
“It's actually a known validator set, and so the infrastructure operators of AHRQ are major financial infrastructure companies, and so, and those are companies that are held to these very high standards for InfoSec compliance, reliability, availability, et cete…”
Allaire: Hybrid on-chain organizations may be most productive in economic history
“The formation of these kind of on-chain organizations that have different forms of governance and contracting and a mixture of human and agentic actors, like that seems like we're going to have a lot more of that. We're going to probably have huge proliferatio…”
Fedus: Physical sciences and engineering will follow machine learning scaling laws
“And I think the physical sciences, physical engineering, Will have a very similar property where we establish these scaling properties and Bring that mindset.”
Fedus: Intelligence is not scalar; AI shows extreme, non-intuitive spikiness
“I think one fallacy is thinking about intelligence as a scalar. We've consistently seen these systems have a very odd spikiness, and it's actually possible to architect a system that is world-class on some math domain, but then you could do some perturbations …”