The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 31 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Patel: Microsoft dropped Stargate for OpenAI due to slow execution
“Microsoft is not building
Stargate for OpenAI, right? It's because it would have just been too slow, and they're doing it the lame and old way.”
Prince: OpenAI and Anthropic Refer Traffic 750x and 30,000x Less Than Google
“In the case of someone like OpenAI, it's 750 times harder than it was with the Google of old. With the case of Anthropic, it's 30,000 times harder than the content of old”
OpenAI internal model reportedly disproved the Erdős unit distance conjecture
“We used an internal model at OpenAI a few weeks ago to disprove the unit Erdos unit distance conjecture.”
Feldman: Cerebras signed a $20B+ OpenAI deal in 4.5 weeks
“For a, 20 plus billion dollar deal to do it in four and a half weeks was exceptional.”
Brown: GPT-5.5 is far more compute-efficient than GPT-5.4
“It turned out that 5.5 is just much more efficient with its thinking. If you run it at max settings, 5.4 is thinking for a lot longer. It takes longer to get back a response than 5.5. And once you control for the amount of thinking time, actually you can see t…”
Brown: Modern AI Models Can Run Scaffolded Experiments for Months
“We're seeing now with the most recent models that you can actually scaffold, for example, 5.5 into doing a series of experiments that can run for weeks, for months.”
Mann: OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft are betting big on Anthropic's MCP
“OpenAI, Google, Microsoft all these companies are betting really big on MCP.”
McKinzie: Reinforcement learning is the key differentiator behind o3 reasoning
“I guess the short answer is reinforcement learning is, is the biggest one. So yeah, rather than just having to predict the next token and some large pre-training corpus from, you know you know, everywhere essentially now we have a more focused goal of the mode…”
McKinzie: Tool use improves test-time scaling slopes for visual reasoning
“And we've seen exactly that, like the test time scaling slopes for without tool use and with tool use for visual reasoning specifically are very noticeably different.”
Davis: OpenAI Had 400 Employees and $13B of Compute When Launching ChatGPT
“In OpenAI's case, you know, there were only 400 people, but had thirteen billion dollars worth of compute, you know, which is quite a bit of computational scale there.”
Gil: Klarna's AI assistant performed the equivalent work of 700 human agents
“One of the folks from Klarna posted today that they built an AI assistant that's powered by OpenAI that in its first four weeks handled 2.3 million customer service chats for them. And so it ended up handling two thirds of all their customer service inquiries.…”
Masad: Commercial AI providers will not release completion models going forward
“Now all the models are chat models. You know, they're not going to be releasing any completion model going forward. And so if you want to build a completion based product, it's actually fairly difficult to do it using commercial APIs.”
ChatGPT launched as a 10-month-old model with RLHF as a practice test
“ChatGPT was a 10 month old model with a little bit of RLHF on top of it. And, you know, like by, you know, admission, like You know, not a beautiful user interface. It was just sort of a way to get something out there because you know, you needed some practice…”
Scott: OpenAI will release GPT-4 Vision to wide distribution soon
“OpenAI doesn't have GPTV and wide distribution, but, like, it'll get to wide distribution at some point in the not too distant future, and so, like, you'll have these, like, very powerful multimodal models”
Tiwari: CoreWeave Began Training OpenAI Models in Early 2023
“And as we entered twenty-twenty-three CoreWeave started to train models for OpenAI.”
Gil: OpenAI tried to acquire Windsurf to enter the AI coding market
“OpenAI famously tried to buy Windsurf and sort of enter coding more directly.”
Patel: OpenAI Releases Custom Inference Kernels Alongside Open Model Weights
“OpenAI is, like, actually, like, dropping the model weights and, like, all these custom kernels for people to implement in inference, so everyone has a very optimized inference stack day one.”
Mitchell: o3 autonomously executes multi-step tasks using integrated tools
“Not only is the model it's on its own smarter than our previous O series models, which is great, but it's also able to use all these tools that like further enhance its abilities and whether that's doing like research on something where you want up-to-date inf…”
Guo: Sam Altman stated OpenAI will support Model Context Protocol
“And Sam from OpenAI said, like, they're going to support it as well”
Guo: Harvey has raised over $500M from OpenAI, Sequoia, Kleiner, and others
“They've now raised more than five hundred million dollars from investors such as OpenAI, Sequoia, Kleiner Perkins, GV, Bloodgill, and me.”
Alexandr Wang: Scale partnered with OpenAI on the first GPT-2 RLHF experiments.
“So we partnered with OpenAI at that time to do the very first experiments on RLHF on top of GPT-II.”
Gil: Mistral reached near GPT-4 capability within one year of founding
“They went from basically starting the company to almost GPT-IV level in less than a year.”
Khan: OpenAI approached Khan Academy before finishing GPT-4's first training run
“They hadn't even finished the first training run of GPT-IV, but they said, you know, we think it's going to be done in about two weeks, and we think This is going to be the model that really wakes up people to the power of generative AI. We want two reasons wh…”
Khan: OpenAI does not use Khanmigo student interactions for model training
“None of the interactions, and this is to credit to open AI, none of the interactions are being used to train the AI.”
Pomel: No Competitor Has Caught Up to OpenAI's Frontier Model Performance
“Nobody has quite caught up to open AI yet in terms of what the frontier model is and the maximum level of performance you can get.”
Guo: No open-source model matches GPT-3.5, GPT-4, or Claude quality
“So there's nothing out there today in open source that is like GPT four, three, five or anthropic cloud quality, right? So there is a, there's one player out in front and that's open AI”
Gil: Five years ago, Anthropic barely existed and OpenAI was early
“Anthropic basically didn't exist five years ago. OpenAI was still quite early. I think GPT-III just came out and SpaceX was trading at 80, a hundred, something like that.”