why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Dohmke: Copilot yields 25-28% end-to-end developer productivity gains
“And then we're talking about, you know, 25, 28% productivity gains on, on the end to end 55% or higher on, on the coding task.”
Prediction Held up
Dohmke: Copilot will resolve GitHub issues via draft PRs in 2025
“But we think, you know in 20, 25, we get into a place where you can assign a GitHub issue, a well-defined GitHub issue to a co-pilot and then it starts creating a draft pull request and it outlines the plan and then it works through its plan and you can, simil…”
Assertion Supported
Scott: Microsoft Copilots use a portfolio of AI models
“If you look at things like Bing chat or Microsoft three 65 copilot or GitHub copilot, you end up using a portfolio of models to do the work and like you use it for performance and cost optimization reasons, and you use it for you know, just sort of precision a…”
Assertion Contradicted
Guo: GitHub Copilot operates by inspecting only five recent files
“Today, you know, you have Copilot looking at your five open files, your five most recent files and doing Function completion. And like that already has such a massive impact on productivity, but I think we're really early in figuring out how to deliver more co…”
Assertion Supported
Dohmke: Copilot reached 77,000 organizations and 1.8M paid users
“I think the last number we shared was a few quarters ago, 77,000 organizations using Copilot and back then the number of paid users was 1.8 million paid users.”
Assertion Supported
Dohmke: GitHub Copilot preview generated 25% of code early on
“Soon after we launched Copilot Preview it already wrote like, 25% of the code.”