Apr 27, 2023 · 33m · no-priors
No Priors Ep. 14 | With Sarah Guo and Elad Gil
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In this audience Q&A episode of No Priors, hosts Sarah Guo and Elad Gil analyze the rapid evolution of open-source AI models, the rise of autonomous agent architectures, the economic risks of premature regulation, and the best startup investment opportunities across the AI landscape.
Statements from this episode (13)
Guo: No open-source model matches GPT-3.5, GPT-4, or Claude quality
“So there's nothing out there today in open source that is like GPT four, three, five or anthropic cloud quality, right? So there is a, there's one player out in front and that's open AI”
Guo: Retraining the same size model is 5x cheaper on the second run
“It's going to be five X cheaper to train the same size model the second time around, like, once you've made your mistakes and know what you're doing.”
Guo: An open-source model matching GPT-3.5 will arrive within a year
“Like if I were a betting woman and I am, I bet there's a three, five level model in the open source ecosystem within a year.”
Guo: Autonomous agents orchestrate LLM loops without changing model architecture
“The basic idea is to orchestrate LMs in this like iterative loop towards some high level goal. Where they're doing planning, and if memory, and prioritization, reflection, and so you're not necessarily changing the architecture of the LLM itself, but this orch…”
Gil: 2024 election will be the pivotal moment driving AI regulation
“The big pivot point for regulation may actually come during the 20, 24 election. Because I think that's the moment that people will show examples of AI being used to influence the election or influence voting behavior, just like ads influence voting behavior, …”
Guo: AI alignment research cannot be separated from capability research
“Alignment research is very tied to capability research, right? And so it's sort of impossible to be like, we're going to stop making any progress on research. But figure out how to control this stuff.”
Gil: AI poses no existential threat to humanity within ten years
“So you need physical form for the AI in order for it to truly be an existential threat. And that's why if I were to focus on an area, it'd probably be robotics or something like that, because that's where you suddenly give physical form to something. And if yo…”
Guo: Midjourney has a completely investor-free cap table
“Like any investor that claims they knew image generation
From text was a killer use case, like, a year or two ago, besides you, is just empirically wrong, given David's completely investor-free cap table and amazing business, right, so.”
Gil: Elon Musk's AI moratorium call was self-serving given his LLM startup
“Musk was asking for a six month moratorium on progress, which seems to me very self-serving if you're simultaneously starting an LLM company, you know.”
Gil: AI value capture will likely be 80% incumbents, 20% startups
“And it feels like in this wave, it's probably eighty-twenty again, right? It's probably, Google will probably become a player, right? OpenAI is closely aligned with Microsoft. And then, you know Salesforce with AI is probably Salesforce, right? It probably isn…”
Gil: AI will be adopted fastest in healthcare operations and delivery
“Usually I think the places in healthcare where this will really get applied fast. Is on the more operational or services intensive related side. It's healthcare delivery. It's lowering the cost of a doctor visit or telemedicine. It's making payments easier and…”
Gil: No major drug-developing biotech founded since late 1980s hit $30B-$50B
“The last time a biotech company hit, I don't know what it is, 3040, fifty billion dollars in market cap, something like that. The last year such a thing was founded was in the late eighties. So it's been at this point, what is that? 35, 40 years without a new …”