No Priors Ep. 59 | With Sarah Guo & Elad Gil

“I think it's very it's very likely at this point that you end this year with a handful of GPT-IV level models, and that some of those are open source, right?”

“Yeah, it definitely feels like you know, the most cutting edge, smartest models in some sense, you're going to end up with an oligopoly, at least in the next couple of years, just because of the scale of capital needed, but also Just how far ahead you start to…”

“And one could argue part of what that's going to do is just kind of flip some of the value capture, the revenue, the margin, the people, whatever metric you want to use over to the clouds, because they're going to be hosting all these things, right? So whether…”

“Despite all of the, you know, initial real traction around Copilot in the code domain I think we're still far short of what revenue Microsoft actually expects to drive in terms of across its productivity suite and in search, and they're ambitious to go after t…”

“Now, they're clearly still working with OpenAI, given, like, direct statements from both companies and the Stargate Data center effort, but it's also hard from the outside not to see this as somewhat of a hedge, right? Not in a criticism of OpenAI, but you kno…”

“The spend required at the perhaps not even this generation, but the next generation really requires a certain level of sponsorship that is challenging for most independent players, but it's a directly opposing view to the, for example, the Databricks narrative…”

“My sense of the market is that multiple players have this technology, but they've been holding it back. And in some cases they may have had it for a year or two now.”

“I think on the foundation model side, from a venture capital or angel investor perspective I think we're going to see fewer new language models But we should see models in a lot of other areas and, you know, we have new things happening in music. We talked a l…”

“In robotics, You know, most machine learning people will look at it as a data collection problem where your internet data, even video data of a bunch of actions just isn't enough. We need embodied action data, like, you know, controls data in some way.”

“I am inclined to believe that, you know, a lot of these domains are going to be solved, and it's just a question of, like, picking the product path through.”

“I feel like any set of startup waves always have these mimetic actions where there's almost these means of what to build that spread and that's happened in prior technology waves too. And the means are often correct. Not always, but often.”

“The ability to operate on financial or accounting data with these models seems like a very A very useful commercial capability and actually perhaps much more tenable and like a sort of linear path to commercial value than some of the things that we're describi…”

“One thing you learned from the last generation of video applications was like, if you take certain dimensions of creativity away, or you just control them, like, and you lower the required quality of different dimensions, you make it much, much easier for peop…”

“The way to think about agents today I feel is almost like a junior intern. They're very eager. They're trying really hard to please, but they still have a lot to learn or you kind of need to give some direction. And so this is a mechanism by which you kind of …”

“Eventually the entire UI will go away once agents get good enough, right? And so I think this is kind of the intermediary step of human in the loop. And eventually as agents get smarter and smarter, and that's going to be through breakthroughs in the base mode…”

“The argument for some of these prosumer companies is that you can often grow into a more professional set of use cases, and the increase in capabilities is creating huge markets where they didn't exist before, right? And you should see many more of these compa…”