Aug 28, 2025 · 40m · no-priors
No Priors Ep. 129 | With U.S. Under Secretary of State (E) Designate Jacob Helberg
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Under Secretary of State Designate Jacob Helberg outlines America's strategic roadmap for economic renewal, focusing on reshoring critical supply chains, achieving energy abundance through nuclear power, and leveraging artificial superintelligence to secure technological dominance.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 21% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 4.8 Guest teaching 4.4 Guest disagreement 1.3 The hosts pushing back 1.7
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 23:12 Jacob rejects DeepSeek open source credentials
Jacob forcefully dismisses DeepSeek's achievements, alleging that they falsified compute specs and distilled ChatGPT weights rather than creating genuine open source innovation.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 12:05 Elad counters structural service economy inevitabilityElad rejects the narrative that advanced economies naturally become purely service-oriented, citing Germany's preserved manufacturing base as counterevidence.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 9:25 Jacob breaks down China predatory rare earth refining tacticsJacob educates the hosts on the mechanics of China's market manipulation, explaining that the issue is refining capacity and price depressing rather than raw extraction.
The host holds their own ▶ 29:34 Elad details compounding financing costs in nuclear delaysElad demonstrates financial and industry expertise by explaining how regulatory delays cause compounding interest and cost overruns on capital-intensive nuclear projects.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and America's Economic Transformation | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Sarah and Elad prompt Jacob to discuss his agenda around supply chain reshoring and changing macroeconomic structures. Jacob explains the historical shift from consumption/services to CapEx investment driven by recent policy reforms. | |
| Key Drivers of CapEx: AI, Energy, Industrials, and Defense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Elad interrupts to drill down into specific CapEx verticals like defense, space, and industrials. Jacob shares detailed figures regarding AI infrastructure contributions to GDP growth and rising global defense spending. | |
| Strategic Competition with China and Rare Earth Mineral Independence | 6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | Elad demonstrates knowledge of rare earth mineral geology and global deposits, challenging the notion of their rarity. Jacob explains China's refining dominance and advocates for DoD off-take agreements with price floors. | |
| Re-industrialization and AI-Powered Productivity Expansion | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Elad challenges the inevitability of deindustrialization by citing the German industrial base as a counterexample to service economy transition theories. Jacob agrees and cites historical industrialization metrics and Jevons Paradox. | |
| Supercharging Worker Output Through Agentic Artificial Intelligence | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | Sarah questions Jacob on why his productivity focus diverges from mainstream risk-centric AI policy narratives. Jacob frames agentic AI as an output-expanding tool that will fulfill unbounded human demand rather than cause mass unemployment. | |
| The Superintelligence Century and Global Geopolitical Realignment | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Jacob details his geopolitical framework regarding Europe's economic stagnation and the Middle East's technological emergence. Elad asks about specific policy causes behind Europe's decline. | |
| Open Source AI Competition and the DeepSeek Phenomenon | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | Elad inquires about the geopolitical stakes of open-source AI models supported by China. Jacob takes a combative stance against DeepSeek, asserting they stole OpenAI model weights and understated their compute cluster. | |
| Accelerating Nuclear Energy Deployment and Regulatory Reform | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | Elad and Sarah demonstrate domain expertise regarding nuclear power statistics, financing overrun mechanics, and South Korean reference design precedents. Jacob details how easing CFIUS scrutiny can unlock foreign capital for US nuclear infrastructure. | |
| Holistic Supply Chain Architecture and Autonomous Logistics | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Sarah asks Jacob to outline other vital strategic sectors beyond energy and compute. Jacob introduces his layered supply chain pyramid model and discusses modernizing transport logistics through autonomous systems. | |
| Empowering Builders and the Vision for American AI Leadership | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | Sarah asks about engagement advice for technology builders under the current administration. Jacob concludes with an optimistic, builder-focused summary of deregulatory policy and AI leadership goals. |
Statements from this episode (23)
Helberg: US relies 90% on Chinese minerals and Taiwanese semiconductors
“We have 90% reliance on critical minerals that are refined in China, on semiconductors that are manufactured in Taiwan.”
Helberg: US CapEx is over 2% of GDP and will probably double next year
“Massive CapEx investment, as you guys know that has really picked up in a statistically significant way. It's over two percent of GDP right now, and it's probably gonna double by next year.”
Helberg: AI infrastructure accounted for one point of US GDP growth
“I, I've seen analysis that has, ah, that basically says that it's added a full point of GDP just for AI in the last year which is a lot because the economy grew three percent, so if a third of that came from AI infrastructure, that's that, that's a lot.”
Helberg: US energy demand is rising for first time since 2008
“For the first time since 2008, we're actually seeing an uptick in, in national demand for energy. Our total electricity supply has remained, has flatlined since 2008, which is just an, Interesting statistic that I've recently come across, and now we're seeing …”
Helberg: DoD forged $750M deal with MP Materials for magnet production
“The DoD has forged a strategic partnership with a firm called MP Materials for seven hundred and fifty million dollars to reboot domestic rare earth magnet production.”
Helberg: Global defense spending reached a record $2.7 trillion this year
“A record high was reached this year with 2.7 trillion in global spending on defense. 60% of that came from, you know, countries that, very large countries like the US, China, Russia, India and Germany.”
Helberg: China emerged as a rare earth superpower around 2015
“China only emerged as a rare earth mining superpower about 10 years ago. It came out in twenty-fifteen with its Made in China twenty-twenty-five plan, and from that date onwards, we actually saw China's refining activity of rare earth materials skyrocket.”
Helberg: DoD off-take agreements and price floors can break China's rare earth monopoly
“The solution to help put the genie back in the bottle is, I think actually the DoD's deal with MP Materials offers a good template, which is you need an anchor buyer and an end customer, and you need a price floor. So you need to agree with the supplier, in th…”
Helberg: AI productivity will erode developing nations' labor cost advantage
“If we increase productivity, it will totally erode the competitive advantages in labor costs that developing countries have, and we have an opportunity to re-industrialize.”
Helberg: Israel has larger GDP and stronger military than Nigeria from tech
“Nigeria is a huge country from a population standpoint, and Israel, a tiny country that's smaller than New Jersey, has a bigger GDP and a stronger military, and it's all because of technology.”
Helberg: AI Will Drive Companies to Increase Output Rather Than Lay Off Workers
“And I actually think companies will choose, far from laying off workers, I think companies will choose to increase output. Because if they don't, their competitors will.”
Helberg: AI first-movers will drive a 'Second Great Divergence' over lagging economies
“I think we're going to, we're likely to see a second great divergence. So, for the first time since the first industrial revolution, I think we're gonna see the economies that are first movers in integrating AI into their economy reap massive productivity and …”
Helberg: Europe's share of global GDP collapsed from 65% to 15%
“Europe's economy went from being 65% of global GDP in the early 20th century To roughly a third in the eighties and nineties, and now it's down to 15% of global GDP.”
Helberg: EU AI Act ensures Europe will not be a first mover in AI
“I think the AI act is basically single-handedly ensuring that Europe will not be a first mover in AI, because it's now subject to these incredibly punitive set of rules”
Helberg: UAE and Israel have higher GDP per capita than France and South Korea
“When you consider that GDP per capita in the UAE and Israel is higher than in France today, which is wild. It's higher than in South Korea.”
Helberg: DeepSeek lied about compute capacity and distilled ChatGPT weights
“The main takeaways of how DeepSeq achieved the performance its performance was Incremental efficiency gains. They lied about their compute capacity because they have a billion dollar cluster, and they distilled ChatGPT's model weights.”
Helberg: Nuclear energy offers the best path for US power expansion
“I think we need nuclear energy. There's no doubt in my mind that nuclear energy is, offers the best path.”
Helberg: US electricity costs half as much as in Europe
“At the cost of electricity in the US is half of the cost of electricity in Europe.”
Helberg: US must signal CFIUS won't block trusted foreign energy investment
“Has to basically signal to the market that the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US, CFIUS, will not block foreign investment, you know, from trusted partners into this sector.”
Helberg: Meeting 2030s US data center power demand definitely runs through nuclear
“Some statistics say that our data center capacity will require us to double our overall electricity production in the 20 thirties. We could, I think it's possible to do that, and Sarah, you pointed out that if we want to re-industrialize, you know, the, those …”
Helberg: US CapEx Surge Could Lift GDP Growth to 3% to 5%
“We're moving to this new world where it's, we're gonna be a high investment economy that's basically gonna invest between Two and four percent of GDP in private capex investment, which is massive. The growth band could pretend, you know, a high productivity, a…”
Helberg: US Strategic Vulnerabilities Are Components, Chips, and Minerals
“Our biggest exposure points are component manufacturing, semiconductor manufacturing, and minerals”
Helberg: Administration Policies Are 'Shock Therapy' to Enable US Builders
“Fundamentally, the policies of the administration, I would argue, have really amounted to shock therapy to help facilitate building in America as much as possible, removing roadblocks through deregulation through lowering taxes and lowering the tax burden, pro…”