Noam Brown

18 statements across 2 episodes · 5 bullish · 4 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Apr 25, 2023 by Noam Brown · said 11 times in 5 episodes since 2023 · across every show →

On the record as a speaker too: Noam Brown's record, appearances and statements → this page counts the times other people say the name.

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Everything said about Noam Brown, oldest first

Apr 25, 2023 neutral
Prediction Didn’t hold up
A $500 million AI model will likely be trained by 2025
“You can probably easily 10 X that, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a five hundred million dollar model that's trained in the next year or two.”
Noam Brown Apr 25, 2023 ▶ 16:29 No Priors Ep. 1 | With Noam Brown, Research Scientist at Meta
Apr 25, 2023 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Inference-time search improved Noam Brown's poker AI performance by 100,000x
“If we were to add this search, this planning algorithm that would come up with a better strategy when it's actually in the hand, how much better could it do? And the answer was it improved the performance by about a 100,000 X. It was the equivalent of scaling …”
Noam Brown Apr 25, 2023 ▶ 53:31 No Priors Ep. 1 | With Noam Brown, Research Scientist at Meta
Apr 25, 2023 neutral
Opinion
Data availability is not the true bottleneck for AI scaling
“It's not clear that data really is the bottleneck on performance here. And I've talked to AI researchers about this, and I think there isn't as much of a worry about this as people might think. Probably that's because there's a lot more data that's out there t…”
Noam Brown Apr 25, 2023 ▶ 15:54 No Priors Ep. 1 | With Noam Brown, Research Scientist at Meta
Apr 25, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Noam Brown's six-player poker bot cost under $150 to train
“We did another competition that bought one and that bought Cost under a 150 dollars to train if you were to run it on like a cloud computing service.”
Noam Brown Apr 25, 2023 ▶ 55:18 No Priors Ep. 1 | With Noam Brown, Research Scientist at Meta
Apr 25, 2023 negative
Opinion
The Turing test is no longer a useful measure for AI
“I think the Turing test is no longer really a useful measure the way it was intended to be. Certainly Just because we have bots that can, I wouldn't say they can pass the Turing test, but I mean, like they're getting close enough that it's no longer that usefu…”
Noam Brown Apr 25, 2023 ▶ 12:18 No Priors Ep. 1 | With Noam Brown, Research Scientist at Meta
Apr 25, 2023
Opinion
A five-person team could solve Settlers of Catan in a year
“To then, like, go to a game like Sotos of Catan, it just felt, like, too easy. Like, you could just take a team of five people, spend a year on that, and you'd have it cracked.”
Noam Brown Apr 25, 2023 ▶ 7:42 No Priors Ep. 1 | With Noam Brown, Research Scientist at Meta
Apr 25, 2023 neutral
What-if
The multiplayer poker AI breakthrough was algorithms, not just scaling compute
“This wasn't just a matter of scaling compute. It really was an algorithmic breakthrough, and this kind of result would have been doable 20 years ago if people knew the approach to dig.”
Noam Brown Apr 25, 2023 ▶ 55:26 No Priors Ep. 1 | With Noam Brown, Research Scientist at Meta
Apr 25, 2023 bullish
Insight
Inference-time compute is the missing scaling dimension for AI reasoning
“This is why I'm interested in the reasoning direction, because I think there's this whole other dimension. That people are not scaling right now, which is the amount of compute at inference time.”
Noam Brown Apr 25, 2023 ▶ 17:12 No Priors Ep. 1 | With Noam Brown, Research Scientist at Meta
Jun 26, 2026 negative
Insight
Brown: Scaffolding Easily Inflates AI Benchmark Scores Without Real Gains
“It's really easy to show you can do much better than previous benchmarks or previous, previous models on benchmarks by just, for example, scaffolding a bunch of models together. So if you say, okay, well, we're going to, instead of just running this model once…”
Noam Brown Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 7:03 Really Big Test-Time Compute in AI Changes Benchmarks, Safety and Research with OpenAI's Noam Brown
Jun 26, 2026 negative
Insight
Current AI safety frameworks fail to account for test-time compute scaling
“The preparedness frameworks and responsible scaling policies, they don't really account for the amount of tests I'm computed. They just say, okay, well, what's the capability of the model? The problem is we're in a world now where the capability of the model i…”
Noam Brown Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 12:55 Really Big Test-Time Compute in AI Changes Benchmarks, Safety and Research with OpenAI's Noam Brown
Jun 26, 2026 negative
Insight
Noam Brown: AI community stuck in bad equilibrium publishing static benchmark grids
“I would talk to researchers about we, it makes sense to show the benchmarks with an x-axis, whether it's tokens or cost or time, there should be an x-axis, and everybody would say, like, yeah, that makes sense, we should do that, but. Well, really, their respo…”
Noam Brown Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 32:27 Really Big Test-Time Compute in AI Changes Benchmarks, Safety and Research with OpenAI's Noam Brown
Jun 26, 2026 positive
Insight
Brown: AI benchmarks must control for test-time compute
“And so I think the proper way to, and so my claim is the proper way to evaluate the models now is you either have some kind of budget for the benchmark, whether it's tokens or cost or time or whatever, or you plot the performance as a function of the amount of…”
Noam Brown Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 4:01 Really Big Test-Time Compute in AI Changes Benchmarks, Safety and Research with OpenAI's Noam Brown
Jun 26, 2026
Insight
Brown: Test-time AI performance scales along a continuous, projectable slope
“You also do see that like the performance is, is it's not just like a discontinuous jump. It's actually like, you can see the slope of improvement over those hundred million tokens. And so you could probably do some kind of evaluation up to a certain budget an…”
Noam Brown Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 4:56 Really Big Test-Time Compute in AI Changes Benchmarks, Safety and Research with OpenAI's Noam Brown
Jun 26, 2026 neutral
Insight
Brown: Benchmark Gains From Routing May Fail in Real-World Use
“One issue you could run into is that you could optimize for certain benchmarks with the routing and then show like, oh yeah, we see this big improvement on these benchmarks. But in real world use cases, it actually ends up not being a significant improvement.”
Noam Brown Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 35:28 Really Big Test-Time Compute in AI Changes Benchmarks, Safety and Research with OpenAI's Noam Brown
Jun 26, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Brown: GPT-3 Capabilities Could Not Scale With Test-Time Compute Budget
“Like, with GPT-III, you couldn't scale test time compute. Like, if you gave it a budget of ten million dollars and said, okay, well, let's see what GPT-III can do, it really can't do that much, more than what you could do with, like, 10 dollars or one dollar.”
Noam Brown Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 12:42 Really Big Test-Time Compute in AI Changes Benchmarks, Safety and Research with OpenAI's Noam Brown
Jun 26, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Brown: Modern AI Models Can Run Scaffolded Experiments for Months
“We're seeing now with the most recent models that you can actually scaffold, for example, 5.5 into doing a series of experiments that can run for weeks, for months.”
Noam Brown Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 15:03 Really Big Test-Time Compute in AI Changes Benchmarks, Safety and Research with OpenAI's Noam Brown
Jun 26, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brown says AI models optimized his PhD poker algorithms by 1,000x
“I was really impressed with the model's ability to optimize the algorithms that I had developed in my PhD. It was honestly, it was shocking to see how inefficient I was in retrospect, and they were able to make it like, you know, 1000 x faster.”
Noam Brown Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 24:00 Really Big Test-Time Compute in AI Changes Benchmarks, Safety and Research with OpenAI's Noam Brown
Jun 26, 2026 neutral
Insight
Brown: Rapid AI Release Cycles Obscure True Model Capability Ceilings
“The model release cycle is, look, we're releasing new models, like, every two or three months at this point, and so a model comes out, it takes two or three months to push it to its limits, and then you have another model come out, and so nobody actually knows…”
Noam Brown Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 16:10 Really Big Test-Time Compute in AI Changes Benchmarks, Safety and Research with OpenAI's Noam Brown
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