why aren't all 48 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Tandon: US antitrust targeting Google and Facebook ignores healthcare monopolies
“The fact that they're coming after like Facebook and Google makes no sense. Like it's so easy to switch between Google and some other search engine if you want. It's almost impossible to change the hospital that you visit because it is quite literally a region…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Infamous 'Wolf Gupta' ads were just 8 of 1,200 WhiteHat Jr creatives
“We are talking about, like, 1200 creatives on Facebook. Out of which six or eight creatives out of 1200, or maybe like, you know, creatives You know, Vish our social media creatives that somebody thinks is, it's not that there's a claim that this kid has made …”
What-if
Sharma: Antitrust Action Against Internet Explorer Enabled Google And Facebook
“So about 23 years ago, had they not challenged the monopoly of Internet Explorer,
I can tell you Google would not be an important company it is today.
You know, you won't have had Facebook as an independent company that you have today.
You know, even the curre…”
Assertion Partly supported
Sharma: Facebook Used Indian Policy To Defend US Net Neutrality
“And the same Facebook, which had insisted on removing net neutrality here was now defending net neutrality here using the three page policy that we had created to basically preserve our net neutrality.”
Opinion
There Is No 'Twitter of India' Because Twitter Owns the Network
“Koo is a great product, great founders, ok. I would love to see them succeed, but there is no Twitter of India. Twitter of India is Twitter. Same thing with Facebook.”
Insight
Outlier seed bets like ShareChat cannot happen via committee consensus
“You can't invest in a company like share chat by getting into a consensus, right? So it's impossible, right? Because there was hardly anything there, right? To say that you will basically create a social media company when you have a Facebook, when you have a …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lunia: Indian founders will inevitably build a homegrown Facebook
“Indian founders have to, just by the sheer number of probability, just because we are so many Indians ourselves, right? We will build our own Facebook.”
Opinion
Sankar: India lacks the Bay Area's generational legacy of enterprise learning
“I think the challenge that India has is that India doesn't have the ecosystem that the Bay Area has, right? In the Bay Area, you had Adobe that passed to Google, who passed to Facebook, who passed to, you know, like, there's just this, like, legacy of learning…”
Insight
Gupta says Silicon Valley enterprise early adopters' risk tolerance drives startup success
“And then also for enterprise space, you know, if you look at Google, Facebook, Intel, all of these were startup at some day in the Valley. So the risk taking capacity of the enterprises or the customers, early adopter customers is also high. So that's where it…”
Opinion
Sidana: Facebook never regained its pre-Cambridge Analytica product-market fit
“And then one day, someone published a blog post in the UK about Cambridge Analytica, and in 1:02, the product market fit of Facebook changed to the point that even today, it has never achieved that same level of product market fit.”
Opinion
Garg: Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI lead the consumer AI battle
“Ah, but really when you think about the players today, I think the three contenders today are really Anthropic, Google, And OpenAI, and I think Microsoft and Meta are sort of fast followers, ah, and Apple is the dark horse.”
Opinion
Namasivayam: Zuckerberg's Town Hall Transparency Was Crucial to Meta's Success
“Final thing which I would also love to point out about Meta was we had this concept of town hogs, and I think the founder's willingness to be extremely transparent and answer all the hard questions you know, it was really good. In a lot of organizations, leade…”
Insight
Entry valuations matter far less for category-creating tech platforms
“Valuations in the world of technology are not as important as you think you might, which is a fairly fundamental learning for anyone who comes out of business school and is fixated on on you know, discounted cashflow and hardcore, never lose out of the fact th…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sachdeva: Facebook generates roughly $6 per user annually in India
“Facebook in India makes about six dollars per year per day in terms of ads revenue. So that is, you can probably say that's the ceiling of the market because they're the most scaled out ads business.”
Insight
Singh: Copy-paste Facebook advertising fails to build enduring brands
“I think that the copy-paste thing happens in Facebook ads, that I think doesn't help in building a brand anyways.”
Opinion
Consumer Brands Succeed by Outperforming Competitors on Paid Ads
“I think today, according to me, if you ask me, most of consumer brands will succeed if they're able to crack Facebook and Google and LinkedIn ads. Better than others, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Singhal: Tomorrow's Google, Facebook, and Microsoft will originate on blockchain
“Tomorrow's Google, Facebook, Microsoft, we believe would originate on blockchain, right? And hopefully would come from India, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wakefit reached 21 crore INR in revenue with zero paid marketing
“Till we were doing this 21 close-up business, we had spent zero marketing. Like, there was no money involved. No Facebook, no Google, no Amazon, nothing. Like, it was going autopilot.”
Insight
Lunia: In social media, startups either become Facebook or die
“You know, the thing is that in social media, there is no mediocre outcome. You can only die creating a Facebook, right?”
Prediction Held up
Garg: Meta will spend $50B to $70B on AI GPUs
“Look there, Meta will spend well north of fifty billion, I think some number between 50 and seventy billion dollars on the underlying data set, on GPUs, essentially.”
Insight
Chopra: Indexing startup strategy on outlier successes like Google is highly risky
“I think indexing on these outliers is, is also very risky for entrepreneurs. In our head, the stories of Google, Facebook dominates, but in reality, what would happen is you will end up making the median B to C app or the median SAS company.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Namasivayam: Zuckerberg Personally Drove Meta's Entire Metaverse and VR Pivot
“When I think about the time they shifted from Facebook to Meta, the entire VR, the entire Metaverse was a lot of his driving force behind it. It's incredible how much, you know, energy this person has to kind of make those kind of company-wide chains.”
Insight
Khare: Post-COVID Indian Startups Favor Organic Growth Over Paid Ads
“I think post COVID, post sort of the air coming out of the growth sort of investing market in India, a lot of companies not only right size their models, but the new companies starting have started with a whole different mindset. For example, a lot of the cons…”
Assertion Supported
Sasi: Indian researchers rank in top ten on Google and Meta bounties
“In fact, if you look at Facebook or Google's bug bounty is where companies pay security folks money to find a security incident. So they, Google typically pays 10,000 dollars, which is what, seven lakh for a good security bug. Now, in the top three list of eac…”
Insight
Sasi: Privacy regulations hamper ad giants while driving cybersecurity business growth
“And if you look at the, if you look at this space, the last 10 regulations that came is a headwind for marketing companies, Google, Facebook. Their business is hampered by this. But cybersecurity market is booming because of these same regulations. This is a h…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Radhakrishna: No Indian company exists among global consumer tech giants
“So when you say global tech, it's Google, Facebook, Twitter, you know, Microsoft, everybody else. There is no Indian name there.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Vikas Nahar says e-commerce customer acquisition cost typically runs 500 rupees
“For example, when you want to promote your own website, acquiring a customer on an Instagram or a Facebook or even on Google, it's like, you know, typically the CAC, the acquisition of, the customer acquisition cost is typically, you know, 500 hundred rupees.”
Insight
Online marketplaces can scale early D2C brands to 1 crore monthly revenue
“I think online platforms, Facebook ads, Google ads, Amazon, Flipkart, they are more than capable. Could take you a crore rupees a month also without, without actually thinking about distribution.”
Assertion Partly supported
Gupshup reached 70M Indian users when Facebook and Twitter had 1M
“And it actually grew to seventy million users in India at a time where Facebook and Twitter had only like one million users in India, right?”
Insight
Chandrasekaran: Company values must be genuine trade-offs, not platitudes
“One thing that I learned was how values have to be trade-offs, right? So, if you have a value like, oh, you gotta be honest, and you shouldn't cheat people, or something like that, everyone will agree with that, right? There is no Other side of that that is eq…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chandrasekaran: Customer care beat commerce and content on Facebook Messenger
“Of all the use cases that we started working on, ranging from content to commerce to customer care, ah, the customer care focus, ah, had the most traction”
Assertion Contradicted
Meesho initially thrived as the only tool for WhatsApp and Facebook sales
“They were using our app because we were the only tool to manage sales on WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram.”
Opinion
Many Young Women View the Internet Exclusively as WhatsApp or Facebook
“Most young girls today don't know that they can use the internet to learn, to upgrade their skills, and to access opportunities that can really get them closer to their dreams. Most young women think it's, think the internet is for WhatsApp or Facebook.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
One of Facebook India's first seven hires was for Learning & Development
“The first seven hires of Facebook was someone from L&D, which was a learning that came from a lot of our leaders coming from Google, and what is it that they thought was important from building a company and an organization.”
Assertion Partly supported
Reddy: Facebook Was Hiring 10,000+ Employees Annually by 2017
“Because by that time, Facebook was hiring 10,000 plus people every single year.”
Assertion Supported
Meta's campus sign keeps the old Sun Microsystems logo on the back
“Even today, if you go to the Facebook office you will see one hack away, a big sign that has the Meta logo and behind the Meta sign is the original Sun Microsystems sign, because Mark wants to have that as a constant reminder about how it is so important to ke…”
Disclosure
Facebook India's initial vision: 100M users, 100M revenue, 100M people touched
“Our first vision for the India market was articulated as a hundred, hundred, hundred, where we wanted to have a hundred million people on the platform, a hundred million in revenue, and a hundred million people that we touched through our community efforts.”
Assertion Contradicted
Batchu: Google and Meta boomerang policies preserve equity within six months
“Both Google and Facebook have boomerang policies. I don't know if you know about this, but basically if you come back within four to six months, To Facebook or Google, they will just restart the clock on your equity package. So you won't lose your vested equit…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sachdeva: Facebook post for cricket WhatsApp group drew 50,000 phone numbers
“In one of those groups, I saw there was a post which was Sachin ka photo with a WhatsApp logo. And the guy is saying, agar apko Sachin ka content chahiye if you want content around Sachin, put your phone number, and I, I'll add you to a WhatsApp group. And bel…”
Assertion Supported
Jagannathan: Facebook's top 50 advertisers contribute under 4% of revenue
“The top 50 advertisers of Facebook contributed less than four percent of Facebook's revenues.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jain: FamPay ran zero Facebook or Instagram ads until 50,000 users
“When we reached our first, for first 40, 50,000 Consumers. We did not do any advertising on Facebook or Instagram. And after that, we actually started with performance.”
Insight
Pratilipi: Happy authors sharing on social drove reader and writer acquisition
“Two of the biggest growth channels for us essentially were just keeping our authors happy because authors were going to share these stories on their own timelines, mostly on Facebook. And this not only helped us with readers, but it also helped us with writers…”
Insight
Facebook Lacks Data to Effectively Target Pregnant Women in India
“Finding pregnant women in India online is very hard because women don't share their pregnancy status.
So even Facebook doesn't know that it's very hard.”
Assertion Supported
Pai: General Atlantic and Facebook Led Unacademy's $110M Round at $510M Post
“The last round was the general Atlantic and Facebook led a hundred and ten million dollar round, which valued them at five hundred and ten million post.”
Assertion Partly supported
Google and Facebook capture over 80% of India's $3B digital ad market
“So it's like about, I think two and a half, 3,000,000,080 percent sitting with Google, Facebook, maybe slightly even more.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Toshniwal: His early Facebook app business died overnight after platform policy changes
“Third idea was around Facebook apps. And my co-founder, he did a course in Facebook apps and he did his masters in Stanford. So, you know, he became an expert in Facebook apps. And that actually did well for some time until Facebook changed its policy and you …”
Disclosure
Reddy co-founded F-Seven seed fund with six female Facebook executives
“In that time, I actually started a seed fund with six other female Facebook executives. It was called F-Seven. And just like you have hashtag angels, this was our equivalent where we were seeing the dearth of women in investing and wanted to so we pulled toget…”
Assertion Supported
Reddy: Orkut was the dominant social network prior to Facebook's India expansion
“It wasn't a public company, and by the way, Orkut was the dominant social media network at that time as well. It was not Facebook”