The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2033
Mehta: Electric scooters will decimate India's commuter motorcycle market within 10 years
“So my belief for the last several years has been electric scooters will decimate the Commuter entry motorcycle market in India over the next 10 years. What will be left as motorcycles is the premium and the high performance category, one 8200 cc and beyond, wh…”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 19:23 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
Insight
Tarun Mehta: Front-page newspaper ads deliver the best retail ROI
“I love newspapers. Front page ads. Nothing works better. Like the amount of football they bring in, I kid you not. They pay themselves back over a weekend. Like the best ROI.”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 53:53 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mehta: Ather's Bangalore store beats Apple's global revenue per square foot
“Indranagar on many months beats Apple global averages quite, quite comfortably. I think on a regular month, I think it also beats, but on a good month, festive months, I think it's like double that of Apple global average.”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 1:00:19 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mehta: EVs cannot profit on servicing and must monetize software upgrades
“Long term, I do think that electric vehicles are not going to make money on servicing. They just can't. And as quality improves for each of, each one of us, their number will drop even further. I think long-term electric vehicles will have to make money on som…”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 24:52 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
Insight
Tarun Mehta: Founders must build operational muscle before hiring senior leaders
“It's best to build a muscle in the company yourselves first and fail a little bit at it before you bring in the real leadership and before you bring in the big guns. Every time we've attempted something as a lazy approach, let's just hire a solid VP for this a…”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 45:51 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
Insight
Mehta: Auto brands in India need mass marketing, not just Twitter
“We are not a country where you can sell stuff on Twitter to a meaningful audience. You can sell stuff to Twitter for like five crore people, but tool is about by like 30 crore people. So you have to, you should almost consider, which actually we've not been su…”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 51:29 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
Insight
Tarun Mehta: Mass TV ads provide customer social air cover, not footfall
“TV, I don't think TV drives immediate footfalls. I think TV is more salient, more long-term salience. You kind of want to be that brand that, yes, I've seen TV on the TV. I mean, we'll have money. We'll have something to think about. Basically, setting up an e…”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 54:47 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
Disclosure
Mehta: Software upgrades account for 15% of Ather's vehicle revenue
“So in a sense, our revenue is, I would say about 85% is hardware. 15% is already software.”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 25:52 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
Assertion Supported
Mehta: Ather's 14,000 monthly sales matches the Royal Enfield Bullet
“Bullet. It's a famous product. Yeah, we all know about it. It does, I think, 14,000 units a month. Pan India. Wow. We do 14,000 today.”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 53:21 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
Assertion Partly supported
Mehta: Ather's revenue grew from ₹75Cr in FY21 to ₹1,800Cr in FY23
“FI. 20, 21 was 75 crores. FI. 21, 22 was 410 crores. And 20 to 23 was 1800.”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 32:08 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
Disclosure
Mehta: Ather's first scooter had negative 300% gross margins
“It was minus -300% negative gross margin. Yeah, -300% gross margin. That was the cost.”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 12:50 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
Assertion Partly supported
Mehta: Ather, Ola, and TVS captured 50% of EV sales in FY23
“So, last year, I think about six, seven lakh vehicles were sold, ah, electric. us, Ola, TVS were about, I think, 50% of it. I think we did one lakh, I think Ola did 1.5 lakhs, and TVS did, again, just under a lakh. So about three, three and a half lakh betwee…”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 20:05 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
Assertion Contradicted
Mehta: Ather alumni have founded at least seven hardware startups
“There have been so many hardware startups that have come out of Aether. There's appliance in, in cooking. There is Exponent Energy. There is another one in the battery side. I'm blanking on the name right now. There are at least like seven, eight startups that…”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 37:10 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tarun Mehta: Early Indian EV buyers loved the concept but hated their vehicles
“Every customer that we used to meet would love electric. They believed this was the future. They were big supporters, believers, everything. Every single one of them hated the EV that they bought.”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 6:51 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
Assertion Supported
Mehta: Commuter bikes like Hero Splendor make up 90% of India's market
“The market of one 80 cc bikes and beyond in India is I think about six percent of the Indian doula market and about 10% of the bike market. 90% of the bike market in India is basically splendor. 9080, 90%.”
Tarun Mehta Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 16:49 ATHER FOUNDER: "Selling Over 11,000 Scooters Per Month & Creating India's Best EV Brand" | Tarun M
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