Opinion
Mehta: No global two-wheeler market matches India's EV tech standards
“Not a single country, not a single two-wheeler market competes with the technology standards of India today.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2027
Mehta: India's electric scooter volumes will catch up to China by 2027
“Volumes, they are ahead, but volumes will catch up in the next three, four years. But in terms of just sheer technology, and product quality, and product the feature list. No, I'm not just speaking for Aether. I'm just, I'm speaking actually about the entire e…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2033
Mehta: Electric scooters will decimate India's commuter motorcycle market within 10 years
“So my belief for the last several years has been electric scooters will decimate the
Commuter entry motorcycle market in India over the next 10 years.
What will be left as motorcycles is the premium and the high performance category, one 8200 cc and beyond, wh…”
Opinion
Mehta: Tesla open-sourcing its patents was mostly a PR stunt
“So I think, ah, open sourcing the patents was more, ultimately served more PR purpose than genuine accelerate the industry purpose.”
Opinion
Mehta: In 2013, auto OEMs dismissed EVs or imported from China
“We realized OEM signed two camps, Either they're very smart, and they know that we won't have EV. Ok. EV is still like a 10 year old story, later story. Or they're idiots, and they think importing from China is a brilliant strategy.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mehta: EVs cannot profit on servicing and must monetize software upgrades
“Long term, I do think that electric vehicles are not going to make money on servicing. They just can't. And as quality improves for each of, each one of us, their number will drop even further. I think long-term electric vehicles will have to make money on som…”
What-if
Tarun Mehta: Lithium-ion would not be affordable without Tesla's cell packaging
“In the absence of it, there's no way lithium-ion prices would have become affordable because it changed the underlying economics of the industry radically. The small form factor sales were very affordable, but the small form factor sales would have never, neve…”
Insight
Mehta: Stabilized hardware platforms create moats internet businesses cannot match
“Once you build hardware, once you've stabilized your platform, you've got a really powerful lead. You've got a really powerful moat that internet businesses can never deliver on. Almost never. SaaS maybe. Internet powered businesses, almost never.”
Insight
Tarun Mehta: Founders must build operational muscle before hiring senior leaders
“It's best to build a muscle in the company yourselves first and fail a little bit at it before you bring in the real leadership and before you bring in the big guns. Every time we've attempted something as a lazy approach, let's just hire a solid VP for this a…”
Insight
Mehta: Auto brands in India need mass marketing, not just Twitter
“We are not a country where you can sell stuff on Twitter to a meaningful audience. You can sell stuff to Twitter for like five crore people, but tool is about by like 30 crore people. So you have to, you should almost consider, which actually we've not been su…”
Insight
Tarun Mehta: Front-page newspaper ads deliver the best retail ROI
“I love newspapers. Front page ads. Nothing works better. Like the amount of football they bring in, I kid you not. They pay themselves back over a weekend. Like the best ROI.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mehta: Ather's Bangalore store beats Apple's global revenue per square foot
“Indranagar on many months beats Apple global averages quite, quite comfortably. I think on a regular month, I think it also beats, but on a good month, festive months, I think it's like double that of Apple global average.”
Assertion Supported
Tarun Mehta: Ather 450 was world's first scooter with touchscreen and Google Maps
“This was the world's first aluminum frame, bolted aluminum frame on a scooter in production. This was the first scooter anywhere in the world to deploy a touchscreen dashboard, and the first one to have Google Maps.”
Disclosure
Mehta: Software upgrades account for 15% of Ather's vehicle revenue
“So in a sense, our revenue is, I would say about 85% is hardware. 15% is already software.”
Insight
Mehta: India is a supply-constrained hardware market, not demand-constrained
“India has never been historically, actually, really, if you think about it, it's not really been a demand-constrained market. We've been a sub, genuinely, we've been a supply-constrained market. We don't get the good stuff. We get the good stuff at a ridiculou…”
Assertion Supported
Mehta: Ather's 14,000 monthly sales matches the Royal Enfield Bullet
“Bullet. It's a famous product. Yeah, we all know about it. It does, I think, 14,000 units a month. Pan India. Wow. We do 14,000 today.”
Insight
Tarun Mehta: Mass TV ads provide customer social air cover, not footfall
“TV, I don't think TV drives immediate footfalls. I think TV is more salient, more long-term salience. You kind of want to be that brand that, yes, I've seen TV on the TV. I mean, we'll have money. We'll have something to think about. Basically, setting up an e…”
Assertion Contradicted
Mehta: Ather 450 was India's fastest accelerating scooter at launch
“When we launched in 2018, Ather four 50 was the fastest accelerating scooter ever produced in the country. I mean, all scooters, all petrol scooters included.”
Disclosure
Mehta: Ather's first scooter had negative 300% gross margins
“It was minus -300% negative gross margin. Yeah, -300% gross margin. That was the cost.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mehta: Ather, Ola, and TVS captured 50% of EV sales in FY23
“So, last year, I think about six, seven lakh vehicles were sold, ah, electric.
us, Ola, TVS were about, I think, 50% of it.
I think we did one lakh, I think Ola did 1.5 lakhs, and TVS did, again, just under a lakh.
So about three, three and a half lakh betwee…”
Assertion Supported
Mehta: India's two-wheeler category leaders routinely capture over 50% market share
“In India, the market leader, In two wheelers. Always gets to 50% plus market share. Splendor. Dominating market share. More than 50%. Activa. Winner. 55% market share. Pulsar. Winner. In the commuter sports category. I think more than 50% market share. Royal E…”
Assertion Partly supported
Mehta: Ather's revenue grew from ₹75Cr in FY21 to ₹1,800Cr in FY23
“FI. 20, 21 was 75 crores. FI. 21, 22 was 410 crores. And 20 to 23 was 1800.”
Insight
Mehta: Building hardware in India is no longer an art
“There, I think is a pretty fast expanding hardware ecosystem in the country, and it's no longer an art to do hardware. I think there's an ecosystem of engineering talent coming out now that's kind of seen these systems built out.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mehta: EV Sector Will Build India's First Real Hardware Platform Talent
“In fact, I think electrification, electric vehicles, because of the amount of lead India has, Is going to create one of the first waves of genuine platform builders on hardware in India after a very long time.”
