The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 797 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 10 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Parr: Gen Z is the first generation since 1800 with declining IQ
“Starting in 2010, They noticed a decline, and this isn't just in America. It's in Norway. They noticed there's a bunch of different countries. I think 80 different countries have actually studied the same thing. This isn't just an American thing. But starting …”
Parr: Airbnb co-founder Joe Gebbia insisted to me that aliens are real
“Joe, look, You're worth, like, ten billion dollars. Like, if there's Illuminati, like, you are either in it, or you're friends with the people in it. Tell me one thing that, like, you guys talk about, and he looked at me, he goes, aliens are real.”
Parr: Traba explicitly promotes a 996 work culture
“And they basically, I think they explicitly said this on their website. We have a nine, nine, six culture, which means working nine AM to nine PM, six days a week.”
Parr: Sports betting apps assign account managers to encourage losing gamblers
“DraftKings or whatever? They have account managers. So if you become, I read about this one woman who was making like, a 150 grand a year, so whatever that puts her at in terms of class, but not like crazy wealthy, and she's, and she lost all of her money, and…”
Chief reached $100M revenue in five years by accepting all applicants
“They grew to a hundred million in revenue in four or five years. They let in 100% of the people who apply in the interview.”
Parr predicts there will eventually be more humanoid robots than humans
“I think this is so big that there's going to be more of these robots than there are humans.”
Sam Parr: Elon Musk will face severe cancellation and Tesla will tank
“One, Elon Musk either dies or he or he gets canceled or he gets canceled in an incredibly like serious way. And Tesla stock completely tanks.”
Parr: Children born today will have more AI friends than humans
“Children born today are likely to have more AI friends than human friends. AI friends are going to be more reliable. I don't even know what that word, conciliatory. What's that mean? Agreeable and considerate. What does this mean? What does this mean for child…”
Parr: Lambda School will likely go out of business by 2023
“I think my prediction if I had to bet money on it is that it won't work.”
Parr: Swedish twin study found 45% of investing behavior is genetic
“And the results that he found Was basically, and concluded, was that 45% of savings and investing patterns and behaviors was genetic, which I find to be astounding.”
Sam Parr: OpenAI will be the biggest company on Earth within five years
“Because how is this company not going to take over the world and be the biggest company on earth?”
Sam Parr: OpenAI will combine Meta, Google, and the news media
“I just think that OpenAI is going to be, like, the combination of Facebook, Google, every news company ever, and then, like, five other companies combined into one.”
Parr: Surge AI did $1B in revenue with zero outside capital
“So this company is only five years old. And it's it was leaked that they did one billion dollars in revenue in the last 12 months. And this guy, Edwin Chen, he's only 37 years old, and he owns 100% of the company. They have not taken any outside funding.”
James Altucher publicly claimed his premium newsletter generates $120M in annual revenue
“He said he made a hundred, he said it on stage.
He said a hundred and twenty million dollars a year in revenue.”
Parr: Elon Musk will become a trillionaire within 3-5 years
“A person worth one trillion dollars, which is what Elon will be in three or four or five years.”
Parr: Harvard's operating margin is -40% without its endowment distributions
“He says, the operating margin would be a -40% without distributions from its endowment.”
Sam Parr: Blue Zones longevity claims are driven by age fraud
“The commonality between the five blue zones is that they have a huge amount of like age fraud.”
James Patterson has solely written only 20% of his credited books.
“He actually has only written about 20%, like solely written 20% of the books that his name is, is credited with as writing.”
Parr: OpenAI will crush startups building on its API
“I'm nervous about people building businesses right now on top of open AI because I'm like, they're just going to crush everyone and just do it themselves.”
Parr: Vice inflated ad reach by aggregating third-party clickbait sites
“What they did was they did, ah, they partnered with omgfacts.com, distractified.com, and all these other clickbait websites, and they would roll that up, and so they would call them part of the vice network, and so they would tell people, ah, you know, like In…”
Parr: Admit Yogi founder should reject VC and bootstrap to an exit
“I think if I'm in your position, I wouldn't raise money. And I think that by the time you're 30 years old, you can be worth hundreds of millions of dollars because you own a business that makes 30 or forty million bucks that potentially you could sell for a hu…”
Parr: Native Deodorant Copied Its Brand Identity From an SF Cafe
“He, 100%, Stole the entire branding, the name, everything from this company. I don't know if stealing is the right word, but kinda.”
Parr: Andrew Tate's Discord community brings in over $100M in revenue
“It's, like, tens of thousands of members. Yeah. No, no, no, no, no, no. Like, a million members. Oh, wow. Like, we're talking nine figures in revenue, and CoffeeZilla, like, did it. He's like, look, here's all the members. If you multiply that by 50, and then …”
Sam Parr: OpenAI will face government regulation in 2023
“The second thing is so open, I open AI. Something involving regulation is going to happen.”
Parr: Hopin founder took $100 million in secondary share sales
“And by the way, the founder took a hundred million dollars in secondary.”
Tech equity granted in 2022 could reach eight figures in a decade
“I think now's the time where you can get some of these offers where you're getting paid a 102 103 100,000 dollars a year in equity, and that could be worth potentially eight figures in 10 years.”
Gary Vaynerchuk achieved publishing history's largest pre-order with one million books
“And so far as of today, it is the largest pre-order ever. In, in publishing history. He has I think as of yesterday, he has sold one million copies of his book before it's even gone live.”
Parr: Lack of screen time will become the ultimate status symbol
“My opinion is what it's going to be is a lack of screen time. So not like it's gonna be like, oh, you use a computer? No, I don't know. I don't use it.”
Parr: 90% of chiropractic claims are nonsense and school acceptance is 100%
“Now, some chiropractor can help very little, like, but 90%, like, 90% of what chiropractors, what we think they do, you can't adjust your spine and, like, your headache stop. Like, that's just not how your body works. But it's nonsense, right? Also, the accept…”
Parr: Eight Sleep will end up worth less than capital raised
“I think that for eight sleep, I, and I think that that is a good valuation for Casper. I'm on board with that. Because it's really hard to do. I think that that is what's going to happen to Eight Sleep.”
Parr: Happiness Increases With Income Up to $500K-$700K Per Year
“What this study found is, like, Up until like 506 107 100,000 dollars a year. It was definitely still going, going up.”
Parr: Live Courses Cannot Be Maven's Long-Term Core Business
“I don't think it's gonna work to do live courses. I don't think are gonna have, it can't be their bread and butter. It's just gotta be how they get into the market. That's my prediction, but we'll see.”
Sam Parr: Clubhouse Likely Will Not Pan Out
“Clubhouse likely won't pan out, but that was definitely an opportunity to have one.”
Parr predicts presentation startup Pitch.com will fail
“Pitch.com. I changed my opinion. They're going to fail. I went to their about page and they have nine employees and they're all founders.”
Parr: Living to ages 110 to 120 won't be uncommon in 50 years
“They don't think it's going to be particularly uncommon to have, ah, one 10, one 15, one 20 in the next, ah, 50 or so years.”
Parr: Small businesses will not build custom CRMs to replace HubSpot
“Like everyone talks about like all the nerds on Twitter, which I'm one of them are talking about like building their own CRMs. Maybe, maybe the nerds are doing that, but a roofing company with 20 employees in Tennessee, they ain't gonna be doing it anytime soo…”
Parr: Society will treat digital distraction as an environmental crisis like obesity
“So my prediction is that we are going to look at this problem the same way we look at obesity. We're gonna, like, look at this stuff, and we're gonna say, there are some people who can just put it down and just walk away. You know, there are some people like, …”
John D. Rockefeller was twice as rich as Elon Musk is today
“John Rockefeller, he was a tycoon, In the early 1900, and he was the richest man to ever live. He was two times richer than Elon Musk is today.”
Sam Parr: Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke logged 15 years of keystrokes and screenshots
“He goes, I created this program that looks at every single letter I've ever typed on my keyboard. And then every 10 minutes it automatically takes a picture Of my screen, and there's a screenshot, and I have an archive now of roughly 15 years of every single l…”
Parr: David Protein on Track for ~$200M in Year-Two Sales
“So this year they're going to do close to two hundred million dollars in sales and roughly the second year of business.”
Parr: Young adults will trust AI over doctors within five years
“I bet that the 18 year old today in five years, they're going to go to the doctor. And when they go to the doctor, they're going to tell their doctor, this is the illness that I have. And I think it's this because what you and I would have said five years ago,…”
Parr: Handshake data annotation will hit $100M revenue soon
“And so in a very short amount of time, they pivoted and that business that they have is going to be at a hundred million dollars a year in the next couple of months.”
Parr: Driving manually will take 20 to 25 years to become a hobby
“I don't think, I think it's going to be a lot longer. But like in 20, it could be 20 years, 25 years. It's not going to be in the next five years, but yeah, it's going to be a hobby.”
Parr: Dharmesh Shah sold Chat.com to OpenAI for ~$15M equity
“He owned chat.com, which he sold to OpenAI for what he paid for it, which I think was around fifteen million, and he got AI ChatGPT stock.”
A solo founder makes over $100,000 monthly running automated local newsletters
“It does six figures right now a month in revenue, and it's just him doing it, and so it's him, and it's Buying ads on Facebook, targeting local people to get subscribers.”
Parr: Untreated hearing loss increases dementia risk four to five times
“Is if you have a hearing loss and you don't address it, the increase of getting dementia jumps significantly. Like four or five times”