The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 83 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 83 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
MongoDB will reach a $50 billion valuation within 10 years
“So that's why it's so valuable is because it's an, it's just an incredible company growing quickly, enormous market share, and is going to grow for the next 10 years. It'll be a fifty billion dollar company.”
Puri: One-third of US Christian congregations will likely close by 2033
“Of the three, 350,000 Christian congregations in the United States, one-third are, like, vulnerable on the brink of collapse, basically. Like, one-third are, like, in the red zone, and over the next 10 years will likely close.”
Will Ahmed predicts Whoop will IPO before 2033
“I think we'll ultimately go public. I think that it'll probably be sooner than that timeframe that you gave.”
Wilkinson: Chamath stopped comparing Social Capital to Berkshire after underperforming
“In his annual shareholder letters, he would he would compare himself to Berkshire Hathaway. So he would track social capital's results versus Berkshire. And then one year he just stopped. And I think it was the one year that he didn't actually beat them. I thi…”
Puri: Stability AI founder Emad Mostaque will become a billionaire
“He's not a billionaire yet, but this guy's going to be a billionaire.”
Shaan Puri Fully Expects His Praxis Charter City Investment to Fail
“I totally fully expect this investment to go to zero. I put in a very small check, but I had to participate cause the founder was so convinced that like, yeah, of course people will do this.”
Brian Halligan predicts the United States will eventually implement a carbon tax
“Eventually the US is going to figure that out and tax carbon.”
Puri: Tele-operated machinery will replace construction drivers within 10 to 20 years
“And so I think what's going to happen is, if you just fast forward 1020 years from now, I think all of this gets replaced with this technology that's, it's not self-driving, it's more like self-operating which is basically like, Remote or what they call tele-o…”
Puri: Direct salaries for college athletes are coming following NIL rulings
“So that's lifted, but it's not yet salaries for athletes, but that's coming because they've also passed the, there's also been a rule passed around the athlete themselves being able to monetize their name and likeness, you know, like, I'm in a college town in …”
Puri: There will be 2-3 multi-billion dollar coworking companies by 2031
“Well, I would be shocked if 10 years from now, there wasn't at least two or three multi-billion dollar co-working companies out there.”
Wilkinson: Real estate agents probably won't exist in 50 years
“I think in the next 50 years, they probably won't exist.”
Shaan Puri: Andrew Chen and Marc Andreessen blocked me on Twitter
“So I was surprised when he blocked me, he, him and Mark Andreessen blocked me. So both of whom, you know, followed before and then went straight to block without like, you know, anything in between I'm cool with that.”
Puri: Peter Thiel walked away if PayPal staff discussed off-topic work
“And people were like, did he really do that? And Keith, you know, Keith Rabolli was like, yeah, he would literally do that. He would, if you tried to bring up anything else besides your problem, he would just turn around and he would just walk away.”
Sam Parr: Scott Belsky will probably become CEO of Adobe
“Scott Belsky currently is the chief product officer of Adobe, soon to be CEO, I think.”
Puri: Apple will eliminate Vision Pro battery cord within five years
“Five years from now, this thing is going to be incredible because they're going to solve all these annoying problems. It's going to become lighter weight. They're going to get rid of this cord. That's a battery that I have to put in my pocket while I'm using i…”
Puri: Warehouse robotics penetration will surge from 2% to near 100%
“Two percent of all warehouses use robotics, right? So two percent of all fulfillment warehouses are using robots today. That number's going very close to a hundred percent.”
Sam Parr: Internet Activism Founder Will Be on Forbes Cover Within 5 Years
“He is so impressive that I was, I, this guy's going to be on the cover of fortune or Forbes, I think in the next five years.”
Puri: One dominant platform will win college NIL marketplace liquidity
“There's going to be one company that just owns the, Here's the liquidity. It's like, we got all the athletes and then like, because of that, we got all the brands and we take care of all the transactions and you don't need to use Instagram DMS and like Venmo. …”
Shaan Puri: Campus Ink Has No Path To A $10 Billion Valuation
“There's basically no way this is a ten billion dollar company. Unlikely it's even a billion dollar company.”
Puri: Home saunas and cold plunges could become as common as pools
“And so maybe if you fast forward, 10 years down the road, sauna and cold plunge is going to be as common as swimming pool is in America. Like I could see a world where that's the case.”
Dharmesh Shah built the first HubSpot prototype with freelance Egyptian developers
“The first version of HubSpot was built by Dharmesh and these two guys in Egypt that he found through found online. Put a test out there. And Far Maui, and I forgot the other guy's name, and they built, like, the prototype of, those three built the prototype of…”
Sam Parr: Scott Belsky is next in line to become Adobe CEO
“And now he's next in line to become CEO at Adobe.”
Puri: The US and other countries will adopt GDPR-like privacy regulations
“U S is going to have their own version of this. Other countries are going to have their own version of this, and they're always going to evolve.”
Sam Parr predicts Scott Belsky will become the CEO of Adobe
“Two is Scott Belsky, who started Behance and is now probably going to be the CEO of Adobe.”
Puri predicts gift card resale platform Raise becomes a billion-dollar win
“Raise is going to be like a billion dollar plus win.”
Jack Butcher's unclaimed BitClout profile accumulated roughly $150,000 in creator coin
“About one 50, I think, last time I looked at it.”
Parr: Toucan founder Taylor Nieman will run a billion-dollar company
“I met with her and like within five minutes, I was like, oh, well, you're going to be the CEO of a billion dollar company. I hope it's this one, but like, she was just so put together.”
Hawk predicts portfolio company Events.com is about to go public
“Events.com I think is about to go public.”
Robinhood's founder ran a failed Kickstarter to document building the startup
“Vlad from Robin Hood, when Robin Hood was getting started, he put up a Kickstarter. Saying, hey, I'm going to try to build this company that's going to change the way the financial markets work. And if you guys fund 10,000 dollars, we'll film it. Because how c…”
Puri: Martha Stewart's company lost money almost every year from 2003-2015
“And then it says from 2003 to 2015, which is like three presidents.
It says consecutive annual losses every year, except for one year.”
Campbell: AI will accelerate cybercrime growth beyond 7x in five years
“Basically cybercrime's exploding. And it's probably gonna accelerate even further with AI beyond this, like, seven X five year magnitude that I have in the spreadsheet.”