The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,946 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 83 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Galloway: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are a bigger deal than GPT-4
“I think GLP-I is bigger than GPT-IV.”
Galloway: GLP-1 adoption could put entire hospital networks out of business
“Hospital networks, entire hospital networks could go out of business if they're really honest.”
Puri: An AI startup will beat legacy porn conglomerates
“Somebody's going to do, somebody's going to go after that market with AI. And I think they will win because again, way more powerful tool to satisfy demand, way lower cause and more ethical supply. That's a winning formula.”
Shkreli: Made his wealth in clinical drug development, not price hikes
“A lot of people think that I take medicines and raise prices. Well, this drug was barely in human beings. It had been in like 30 or 50 people. Helped up until that point. And, you know, I made most of my money in, in sort of developments in, in environment on …”
Shkreli: Every insurer covered Daraprim because it was cheaper than ICU stays
“There's not an insurer in the world that didn't cover Daraprim because If you don't pay the 50,000 dollars roughly what Daraprim costs for a whole course, forget per pill, about 50 grand if you end up needing Daraprim. If you don't pay that, you're gonna pay f…”
Shkreli: In the future, humans will marry AI and AI will vote
“You know, probably some of the craziest ones I've made, including include things like they'll, they'll be kind of interspecies marriage between AI and humans. There'll be AI fundamental rights for voting and things like that. That'll kind of reshape society. S…”
Ali: Bill Gurley yelled at founder over lost Andreessen Horowitz deal
“Friend of mine was raising money and got a term sheet from Andreessen Horowitz and Bill Gurley at Benchmark and went with the Andreessen Horowitz term sheet. And Bill Gurley was so mad that he called the founder up and like yelled at them for two hours. And se…”
Sam Parr: Elon Musk will face severe cancellation and Tesla will tank
“One, Elon Musk either dies or he or he gets canceled or he gets canceled in an incredibly like serious way. And Tesla stock completely tanks.”
Rose predicts generative AI will make Fiverr completely non-existent
“Whether it be creative writing or I believe Fiverr as a company, it will just be non-existent. It's going to destroy the low end of the creative market initially and then work its way up the chain.”
Luckey: The New York Times published a fabricated quote of mine
“The New York times posted a quote for me that I literally never said. And I told them like, Hey, you said that I said this, I never said that. They said, well, it's more or less what you said. We don't think the meeting is different.”
Luckey: The odds of a tactical nuclear weapon being used are high
“And so for that reason, I think this is a little contrarian and not everyone agrees, but I think that the odds of a tactical nuclear weapon are very high. It will not be used on the United States. It will not be used on a NATO ally. It'll probably be a tactica…”
Parr: Children born today will have more AI friends than humans
“Children born today are likely to have more AI friends than human friends. AI friends are going to be more reliable. I don't even know what that word, conciliatory. What's that mean? Agreeable and considerate. What does this mean? What does this mean for child…”
Enjeti: NIAID granted $600K to Peter Daszak in Anthony Fauci's final days
“Dr. Fauci on his waning days as the head of NIAID actually just granted a 600,000 dollar grant to the same individual for the same type of research, which possibly led to the escape of coronavirus from the Wuhan lab.”
Holiday: Shopify will become the biggest company in the world
“This is why I think Shopify is gonna be, like, the biggest company in the world, because they, like, let people do that.”
Tech salary inflation will reverse as remote hiring shifts overseas
“I think that this high salary inflation is not here to stay. I think what's happened is all these companies down in San Francisco are going, oh, crazy. We can hire cheap people in Canada, but they're not yet going, oh, hey, we can hire people in India and the …”
Puri: Chamath profited from poorly performing SPACs while retail investors suffered
“Chamath in reality had a bunch of really shitty SPACs where he made a bunch of money. And people who invested in his SPACs on the whole, like just got ripped to shreds this year.”
Puri: Lab-grown meat will make animal slaughter for food obsolete
“It's going to change because we're going to have a good substitute, which is lab grown meat. So people are going to be able to make, make the same steak you want without killing the animal. And then in that case, killing the animal is going to look absolutely …”
Helwani: Dana White tried to block my ESPN hiring before day one
“From the moment the news came out that I was signing, he was trying to get me to not even have day one at ESPN.”
Abraham: Zcash and Monero can be decrypted; Iron Fish is truly anonymous
“So you had, you know, coins like Zcash and Monero that were created, but it turns out Those actually can be decrypted and you can figure out where all of that went. So she's the first person that really figured out how to make truly anonymized crypto. And it's…”
Parr: Lambda School will likely go out of business by 2023
“I think my prediction if I had to bet money on it is that it won't work.”
Maples: Decentralized cloud societies will eventually function like future nation-states
“What I think happens at the limit is that all of these different cloud cultures are like their own societies.
And so right now the main, main organizing principle of society is the nation state, which is also an economies of scale centric model.
Right.
But if …”
Srinivasan: Very few pre-internet institutions will survive the internet
“I think very few institutions that predated the internet will survive the internet in the fullness of time.”
Balaji: On-chain skill badges will destroy the college diploma
“Now, why that kind of thing is important is it totally destroys the concept of a college diploma. The reason being college diploma is a very, very coarse grained you know, kind of illustration of somebody's skills.”
Balaji: Cryptography will displace corporate media as the font of truth
“And that is actually a very powerful thing where we start to actually displace a corporate media corporation as the font of truth with cryptography instead.”
Balaji: All finance will become crypto
“With CS and stats, by the way, you can understand finance, because it's crypto, or it'll all become crypto.”
Puri: Multinational oil companies used local intermediaries to bypass bribery laws
“Those companies couldn't get their hands dirty. They could not risk Bribing foreign like politicians. So what they did was they let this guy bribe the fallout foreign politicians, get the rights, and then they would cut a commercial deal with him.”
Shaan Puri: Clubhouse will ultimately fail despite its massive hype
“I wrote a thread about Clubhouse, and the thread starts basically saying, you know, everybody seems to think that Clubhouse is the next big thing, and I think it's gonna fail, and here's how I think it's gonna go down.”
Saylor: Bitcoin will become a $10T primary global treasury reserve asset
“You know, people that understand Bitcoin think it's going to grow to become the 10 trillion dollar asset that gold is, and then it's going to replace negative yielding sovereign debt and then corporate debt and ultimately it will become the primary treasury re…”
Puri: MrBeast trains key executives by having them shadow him continuously
“Like, from morning to night, like, the guy, I remember one guy he hired, he was also Jimmy's alarm clock. Like, he would go wake him up, and from the moment Jimmy woke up, they were together, till the moment Jimmy signed off to go to sleep, and he would do tha…”
Foster: Cheap software creation will make personality the main differentiator
“Like when it is so cheap to build software, I think you're going to see more software that has
Like a personality to it.”
Foster: Future worker value and pay will depend on managing AI agents
“Yes. I feel pretty confident that that is the direction we're heading to.”
Liemandt: Alpha School requires second graders to run a 5K
“Our second graders gotta run a five K. Our eighth graders have to do a tough mudder, or they also all have to cross the finish line at the same time.”
Alpha School outpaces 100k-student district in perfect STAAR scores
“And, you know, we have a building with a few hundred people in Austin, Who get more hundreds on the Texas car than a school district of a 100,000.”
Liemandt: 46% of Alpha School students prefer school over vacation
“Four weeks ago when we surveyed all our kids, 46% of our students said, I would rather go to school than go on vacation.”
Liemandt: In 20 years, 90% of parents will still use physical schools
“In 20 years, parents are going to drop their kids off at a building. 90% of parents, you have homeschool little stuff, but it's a niche. Nine percent of parents are going to drop their kids off at a building. And in that building are other kids and adults”
Twelve billionaire philanthropists warned Liemandt not to invest in education
“Before I did this and put my billion dollars in, I talked to a dozen billionaires who'd all spent over, had all spent over a billion dollars on education. And to a person, every single person said, don't do it.”
Liemandt: Software buyout firm saw $20B pipeline of distressed SaaS deals
“I saw twenty billion dollars of pipeline companies that were, they were looking at about splitting the cash flows buying for a dollar.”
Parr: Swedish twin study found 45% of investing behavior is genetic
“And the results that he found Was basically, and concluded, was that 45% of savings and investing patterns and behaviors was genetic, which I find to be astounding.”
Puri: AI will outperform financial analysts, forcing them into field data gathering
“It's not guys sitting at spreadsheets, because guess what? The AI is much better at sitting there looking at a spreadsheet, reading every earnings report, listening to every earnings call on earth simultaneously, and coming up with the right decision. It's gon…”
Puri: $20K humanoid robots will surpass the iPhone as biggest product ever
“Dude, these robots, When they work, it's going to be the biggest product ever invented in the history of mankind, bigger than the iPhone, bigger than anything. When you get a 20,000 dollar robot that can do, do work, it is the biggest product ever.”
Smith: US Longevity Gap with G7 Is Driven Primarily by Diseases of Despair
“America is falling behind some of the other, like, G-seven nations around longevity, but I thought it was because generally people were dying earlier but it's actually due to these things called diseases of despair. So just like alcoholism drugs, etc. But if y…”
Weaver: AI technology across many industries will become commoditized, not a differentiator
“I think the technology in many, many industries is going to be commoditized... I think ultimately, I think most people are gonna have access to the same technology. So it'll be a tool and it'll help everybody, but it's not gonna be the thing, you know, it's no…”
Weaver: VC-backed AI rollups in property management lack technological advantage
“I know there's been a bunch of AI native rollups launched by venture firms in property management. What tech, like what's their real advantage? Like, are they gonna have technology that's better than anyone else? I would say the answer is no.”
Puri: Zuru Tech's automated manufacturing cuts homebuilding costs by 10x
“It's basically like more than an order of magnitude. So it's more than 10 times cheaper to build the homes this way.”
Shaan Puri: DeepSeek outperformed OpenAI models without access to top-tier chips
“You ever heard of DeepSeek? They were in the news recently, created that big algorithm, didn't even have access to the best chips, and somehow outperformed all of the OpenAI models.”
Shaan Puri: Dominating AI will probably create the next global superpower
“And now with the AI thing, it's like, it's not just a symbolic victory. It's actual, like, total domination of the world's most powerful technology and will probably create the next global power.”
Galloway: $40B child tax credit was stripped while $120B Social Security COLA passed
“Forty billion dollar child tax credit that would benefit young families stripped out of the infrastructure bill, but the hundred and twenty billion dollar cost of living adjustment for Social Security flies right through.”