Jul 1, 2024 · 1h 2m · my-first-million
The Simple Newsletter Making $20M+ A Year With 1 Employee
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of My First Million, hosts Sam Parr and Sean Puri interview former floor trader Kevin Van Trump to unpack the mechanics of his multimillion-dollar agricultural newsletter empire, explore investment opportunities in farmland and AgTech, and discuss strategic business frameworks rooted in patience and probabilistic thinking.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 40.6% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 4.6 Guest teaching 5.7 Guest disagreement 1.3 The hosts pushing back 1.3
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 47:35 Kevin pushes back on animal mistreatment stereotypes
Kevin directly refutes popular media narratives about farm cruelty, asserting that in all his years on farms he has never witnessed animal abuse.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 25:04 Shaan challenges the viability of trading versus investingShaan challenges Kevin on why anyone would choose active trading over long-term buy-and-hold investing given the widespread consensus among investing legends.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 17:25 Kevin explains customer margin degradationKevin breaks down the strategic trap of serving massive enterprise clients like John Deere, educating the hosts on how high volume compresses gross margin.
The host holds their own ▶ 31:03 Sam details produce brokerage economicsSam cites concrete gross margins and recession-proof dynamics from his family's onion brokerage business to substantiate the massive economic value of agriculture.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How Sam and Sean Met Kevin Van Trump | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Sam and Shaan reminisce about meeting Kevin at conferences and marvel at his low-overhead, high-revenue agricultural newsletter model. The dynamic is extremely warm and admiring as the hosts credit Kevin for inspiring them. | |
| The Van Trump Report Scale and Floor Trading Origins | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Kevin explains the mechanics and scale of the Van Trump Report before sharing his early career journey as a towering floor trader in Chicago. Shaan and Sam ask clarifying questions with full deference to his unique path. | |
| Sponsor Break: HubSpot Business Playbook Guide | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Following a brief ad read, Kevin details moving from floor trading to grain market analysis, starting his journal organically, and the origin of FarmCon. The hosts listen attentively to his transition into ag-focused content. | |
| Building AgSwag and Strategic Business Frameworks | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | Kevin delivers a masterclass on business frameworks, outlining a 2x2 uniqueness vs. value matrix and explaining how AgSwag avoids margin erosion by rejecting massive corporate contracts. The hosts let him steer the detailed conceptual breakdown. | |
| Poker Philosophy, Patience, and Big Market Swings | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | Shaan connects Kevin's poker framework to Warren Buffett's fat-pitch philosophy, demonstrating solid investing literacy. Kevin validates the point and reflects on the psychological discipline required to sit on hands and wait. | |
| Trading Strategy vs. Long-Term Real Estate and AgTech Investing | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | Shaan challenges the premise of active trading versus long-term investing, prompting Kevin to agree with Buffett's passive philosophy for the majority of people while detailing his personal allocation into real estate. | |
| Agricultural Macroeconomics, Tariffs, and Modern Land Utility | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | Kevin outlines grain gluts, China tariffs, and new utilities for rural land like data centers. Sam contributes substantial domain context by sharing details from his father's decades-long career as a produce broker. | |
| Generational Farm Succession, PBR Bucking Bulls, and Niche Ventures | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Sam shares in-depth firsthand knowledge about bucking bulls and the economics of the PBR circuit from his family ranch in Oklahoma. Kevin adds comedic and operational anecdotes about niche agricultural businesses. | |
| Farmland Investing via AcreTrader and Livestock AgTech | 5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | Kevin explains farmland valuation via AcreTrader and how institutional money targets distressed or peripheral land. Sam pitches an RFID livestock tracking startup, prompting Kevin to push back gently on public misconceptions of farm animal welfare. | |
| Future of Food: Lab Meat, Carbon Offsets, and Skilled Trades | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | The conversation shifts to cultured meat, carbon offset markets in ag, and the resurgence of skilled trades among younger generations. Sam and Shaan actively build on Kevin's thesis regarding blue-collar opportunities. | |
| Blue Collar Roll-ups, Uncomfortable Conferences, and Walking Through Doors | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Shaan shares a poignant analogy about doors versus windows when evaluating career risk and intentional discomfort, which Kevin strongly affirms. Both sides show high mutual respect. | |
| FarmCon Highlights, Memorable Encounters, and Final Thoughts | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Shaan shares a humorous story about a charismatic Midwestern dealmaker at a FarmCon dinner. The episode wraps on friendly plugs and plans for future attendance. |
Statements from this episode (20)
Van Trump: Older investors turn bearish because they fail to understand new trends
“You know, we just believe in, in trading and investing. It's all about perspective and, you know, you can get blindsided a million different ways. And so I like to be around the younger people to help broaden my perspective because, you know, we always say in …”
Van Trump: Daily agricultural newsletter is written by just two people
“Well, I have a girl who used to work from the Kansas State Board of Trades, Stacey Craig. She's out in LA and she helps me with a lot of the content and a lot of the things. I write corn, beans, wheat. I write the up top comments. She helps with those. And the…”
Van Trump: The Van Trump Report operates with about four staff members
“There's about four of us on our staff here. A friend of mine that used to be a golf pro buddy that I went to school with, Stacey out in California and my son Jordan on this side of the fence. My wife does a bookkeeping with accounting team, but that's really i…”
Van Trump: The Van Trump Report has 30,000 to 40,000 paid subscribers
“We've got several. Congressmen, senators, a lot of big trading groups, hedge fund people, and yeah, about 35, we're probably in the 30 to 40,000 range on, on paid subscribers.”
Van Trump: Agricultural newsletter reached 45 countries with zero advertising
“We've never advertised and
We're about 45 countries now, and.”
Van Trump: AgSwag will generate $25M to $30M in revenue in 2024
“And I think they're going to do, he said somewhere between 25 and thirty million this year.”
Van Trump: High-volume enterprise clients permanently destroy high-margin business models
“What you have to understand in all businesses, you're always going to be pulled to the right. So you're always going to be pulled to the high user and low gross. They're going to try to get you over there. If people like what you have, they like what you're do…”
Van Trump: Fewer trades consistently led to far better annual performance
“The more trades we made, the worst year we had, it seemed like. The fewer trades, by far the better of the year.”
Van Trump: Held 30,000 Amazon shares early on and sold at breakeven
“I was trading when Amazon first came out and we had 30,000 shares of Amazon, like right out of the hole. And I went negative on it. I'll never forget story. My wife and I shit, we didn't have enough money to pay attention at the time. And we were sitting there…”
Van Trump: Real estate and farmland have been biggest investment winners
“Buying real estate, you know, we have everything from commercial properties to single families that we've turned into various Airbnbs land, farmland, regular land. Those have been our biggest winners.”
Van Trump: US faces over two-billion-bushel corn supply glut
“We have a pretty burdensome supply of corn. We're over two billion bushel supply of corn. You know, we got about five hundred million bushel supply of beans coming down the pipe.”
Van Trump: China has booked zero US new-crop soybean cargoes
“Brazil's got a little bit of, they're down from a little bit, but China, like, so China right now hasn't been a buyer of U.S. New crop beans, haven't booked any cargos, which is unusual.”
Van Trump: Midwest farmland is being rapidly bought for data centers
“We're seeing a big push through the Midwest on companies wanting to build these massive data centers really through the glut of the Midwest. And we think it's kind of like Cushing's Oklahoma, where we store our oil. Now we think data is going to be kind of the…”
Van Trump: About 80% of farms are owned by people over 60
“80% of the farms are owned by people over 60, you know, and it's a really aging demographic.”
Van Trump: Adjacent farmers pay large premiums for contiguous farmland
“The person whose farm butts up against you, they're going to be willing to pay a big premium because the land may only come available once in their lifetime. And so they're going to be bidding heavily. So whoever's in close proximity, because as you know, driv…”
Van Trump: Lost money attempting to raise PBR rodeo bulls
“I lost a good chunk of money, not a big chunk, but I did what you said. Some buddies of mine said, hey, let's start raising these bulls to be PBR bulls, you know, rodeo bulls. Shit. I don't think I ever cashed one check.”
Van Trump: Farms Will Adopt Blockchain-Level Traceability for Inputs
“We think you're going to blockchain the farm is what we're calling in our world. You know, you're going to blockchain a farm, meaning the fertilizer companies and the input companies are going to have to report all that. And you're going to know what was put o…”
Van Trump: Alternative meat will continue to gain market share
“I think there will be a segment of the space that continues to grow. And I think you're going to see it continue to gain market share.”
Van Trump: Rural drivers will eventually adopt electric vehicles
“I think eventually, yes, I think they'll see it have better torque, you know, better low end get up and go out of the hole. And I think you'll see a lot more transition.”
Van Trump: Attending obscure, out-of-industry conferences yields high-return business ideas
“So I just always have the kids looking for new, crazy, weird conferences or things to go to. And from there I'd make myself go the last couple of years, I didn't want to go. And I'm like, but each time I went, I took away several little gold nuggets that we, I…”