why aren't all 40 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Galloway: Remove Section 230 immunity for algorithmically elevated content
“I would remove section two 30 for all algorithmically elevated content.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: AI will benefit both tech giants and startups, not disrupt incumbents
“Like it isn't going to be the David and Goliath where David invents his new thing, AI, and it kind of resets the apple carts of the Goliaths that are appropriately bought into AI, which, you know, is intensely Microsoft and Google and, you know, some Amazon an…”
Insight
Hoffman: Purely click-driven algorithms inevitably optimize for base human instincts
“For example, on the Facebook side, they say, well, what people click en masse demonstrates their actual preferences, what they actually like, and so we have a democratic platform that promotes what people click on. It's a reflection of actual behavior and pref…”
Insight
Zuckerberg: Let teams run any test that won't destroy the company
“On a day-to-day basis, a lot of the decisions that I'm making are like, okay, is this going to destroy the company? Because if not, then like, let them test it, right? I mean, it's, if the cost of the test isn't going to be Super high, then in general we're go…”
Insight
Zuckerberg: Rapid imperfect software releases outperform annual feedback cycles
“Even if not every single release is perfect, I think you're going to end up doing better over a year or two than you would be if you just waited to get feedback for a year of all your ideas.”
Insight
Hoffman: Silicon Valley startup networks can take root anywhere with pay-it-forward founders
“Every successful founding team at Google, Facebook, wherever, spawns its own little network, and there's nothing magical about the networks in Silicon Valley. They can take root just about anywhere that you have a few successful entrepreneurs willing to pay it…”
Insight
Zuckerberg: Developing features during platform rewrites increases risk of failure
“Often when companies need to take Like two years or so to rewrite their whole app or software for a new platform. They believe that they can't slow down feature development. So they do two things at the same time. They try to design a new product while rewriti…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Freston: Viacom offered $1.5 million to buy Facebook in early days
“We offered to buy the Facebook for a million and a half dollars, which was a lot for us.”
Opinion
Hoffman: Meta's AI agents are not that good yet
“I don't think their agents and so forth are that good yet, but the kind of the notion of, like, how do you tie the AI stuff into the advertising system and have an alternative, really compelling advertising system How do you continue to do engagement with the …”
Opinion
Hoffman: Zuckerberg's Oculus and metaverse bets haven't worked out well
“Some of the bold bets, you know, I personally don't think work out as well. Oculus and, you know, the kind of the meta as they focus, but he's a constant infinite learner and takes bold bets.”
Insight
Vaynerchuk: Digital marketing wastes money just as easily as traditional media
“I think that I know, because I live in it every day, you can waste an ungodly amount of money on influencers, on Facebook, on Instagram, on TikTok, on Spotify just as easily as you can in a newspaper or billboard or radio.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Vaynerchuk: LinkedIn currently offers significantly more organic reach than Instagram
“Meanwhile, LinkedIn is acting like Facebook in 2015, where on LinkedIn, if you post about floral arrangements, or why you're a good option for a corporate floral, or just a one-off Valentine's Day thing, it is more likely that you will get organic reach. On Li…”
Disclosure
Zuckerberg: Meta's primary company strategy is learning quickly
“I think more than any single product that we're working on at this point, that focus on learning quickly is the strategy of the company.”
Disclosure
Zuckerberg fears missing big opportunities more than making business mistakes
“I'm much more motivated by making sure that we have the biggest impact on the world than by building a business or making sure we don't fail. I have more fear in my life that we aren't going to maximize the opportunity that we have Than that we messed somethin…”
Assertion Contradicted
Zuckerberg: Facebook froze new feature development for two years for mobile
“So we made what was a pretty hard decision at the time, which was basically no new features for two years, which is kind of a crazy thing.”
Insight
Kern Schireson argues Instagram has functioned as an AI agent for years.
“For the last 10 years, Instagram is an agentic AI creating a TV show for you about your life and your friends and what you should care about and think about, and it includes what products you should be aware of. That is a decade old AI agent, right? It really …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Advertisers spent over $1 billion on Facebook through Buddy Media's platform
“Their advertisers were spending at the time, it was early, over a billion dollars with fail, with Facebook through our platform, right?”
Disclosure
Mike Lazerow backed Scopely, Facebook, Tumblr, and eToro as early investor
“Companies like Scopely, which we were a seed investor that sold for five billion in cash, companies like eToro, and like, and originally, like, we were investors in Facebook, and Tumblr”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Buddy Media reached $50 million annual recurring revenue in three years
“We were the fastest at the time, like the fast growing company to reach fifty million in like annual recurring revenue. It took us three years on the back of Facebook.”
Assertion Supported
Liquid Death gained 80,000 followers from a $1,500 video before having product
“We made a Facebook page for liquid death long before we ever had real product. And we made a 1500 dollar funny video that got a couple million views. The page had like 80,000 followers.”
Insight
Kagan: Marketplace platforms exist because creators cannot market effectively themselves
“If Google was cheaper or Facebook was more efficient or people could do marketing themselves, like there wouldn't be AppSumo. There wouldn't be Airbnb if you could just promote your home yourself.”
Assertion Partly supported
Mackey: 350,000 people boycotted Whole Foods after 2009 WSJ op-ed
“We were, had protests all around the country, and 350,000 people, and within a couple of weeks signed a Facebook petition to boycott Whole Foods Market. Hundreds of letters were sent to our board of directors demanding that I be fired.”
Insight
Zuckerberg: Direct testing tools bypass management debates and accelerate execution
“And giving people the tools to be able to go get that data without having to argue whether their idea is good through layers of management before testing something frees people up to move quicker.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zuckerberg: Facebook runs roughly 10,000 different versions simultaneously
“At any given point in time, there isn't just one version of Facebook running, there are probably 10,000.”
Opinion
Hoffman: Common spaces are as vital to Silicon Valley as big tech HQs
“I'd argue these common spaces are just as vital to Silicon Valley as the headquarters of Facebook, Google, or LinkedIn.”
Assertion Supported
Hoffman: David Sze returned $2.5B to Greylock via LinkedIn, Facebook, Pandora
“He invested in LinkedIn. He invested in Facebook. He invested in Pandora. He personally returned two and a half billion dollars to Greylock's funds.”
Insight
Sandberg: Leaders must endlessly repeat company mission in meetings
“You have to repeat your mission and your purpose and the values you care about over and over and over and over. And sometimes you're like, doesn't everyone know this? It doesn't matter. Starting out your meetings with this is the Facebook mission. This is the …”
Assertion Supported
Hoffman: Friendster drove profile photo uploads using gray question mark placeholders
“One of the clever things that Friendster created, for those who don't know what the heck I'm talking about, this is way pre-Facebook. It's even pre-MySpace. Part of what it did to get people to put in a picture was it put a little gray question mark.”
Disclosure
Kagan: Book was partly motivated by insecurity from Facebook and Mint firings
“I think I wanted to prove that I'm smart or prove that I'm successful or prove that Facebook when they fired me and then when mint fired me, like I can do it. And I think this book was probably, probably some of that, like, hey, I want some level of attention …”
Assertion Contradicted
Kagan: Mark Zuckerberg fired me directly from Facebook
“I got fired by Facebook from Zuckerberg directly.”
Disclosure
Vaynerchuk customizes slang and vocabulary for Facebook versus TikTok
“When I make Facebook content, I'm thinking about parents. Because I know the demo's going to be older. Those are going to be different videos that I'm putting into TikTok where I know they're going to be youngsters. The words and the videos and slang and every…”
Assertion Supported
Hartz: Facebook gave Eventbrite exclusive early access to Events API
“We took our data and our findings to Facebook. We gave them to Dave Morin, and we said, hey, check this out. And in turn, he gave us the Events API key that nobody else had for Facebook Connect. So we built the bridge for event creators to be able to just one …”
Assertion Supported
Systrom: Instagram only had 5 to 6 employees for its first year
“I mean, we were like, on average, like six people for that first year. We only hired up to 13 right before we got acquired. So whenever people are like, ah, 13, I'm like, actually, it was more like five or six.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Systrom: Instagram seeded launch with 100 designer influencers cross-posting
“So we went out and we got all these influencers who were photographers and designers to sign up, and I think we had a hundred people sign up. And the day we launched, they started posting all their photos to Twitter and to Facebook, and we figured out the vira…”
Disclosure
Zuckerberg: When starting Facebook, I assumed another company would build the global platform
“I did think that someone was going to build a global social platform. I just thought that there was no chance it was going to be us.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zuckerberg: Early Facebook users resisted campus expansions before quickly accepting them
“We'd seen this funny dynamic where, you know, we talked about how we started it at Harvard, and then we'd launch at Yale, and then all the people at Harvard would be like, oh, come on, like them? And then it's like at every step along the way, you go from Yale…”
Disclosure
Zuckerberg initially believed Facebook was a project, not his real company
“And I remember we explicitly talked about One day we might start a company. And this was after we'd started Facebook. So the clear implication was one day we were going to create a company, but this was obviously not the company that we were going to create.”
Insight
Hoffman: Even Facebook and Airbnb faced existential 'valleys of the shadow'
“All startups go through a valley of the shadow. All of them, PayPal, LinkedIn, things that I've done personally, things that I've invested in, Facebook, Airbnb, all have valleys of the shadow where you're like, why did we think this was a good idea?”
Assertion Supported
Hoffman: Zuckerberg rejected $75M in 2005 and $1.5B in 2006 buyout offers
“He famously turned down a seventy five million dollar buyout offer in 2005. Followed by a 1.5 billion offer in 2006.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Partovi: iLike scaled from two to 32 servers within hours of launch
“We planned to have two servers running this to judge interest, and basically within 30 minutes we realized two servers wasn't gonna be enough, so we immediately doubled it, and then we doubled it again, and then we doubled it again until our entire server farm…”