The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 36 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 36 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Misaligned AI will competently scheme and take over in 2029
“And then it turned out that somewhere along this transition, so at some point in 20, 29, you went from AIs that were kind of misaligned and reward hacky and sloppy and weren't really trying to do the right thing to AIs that are like competently scheming agains…”
Patel: AI software industry could hit $100 billion ARR this year
“I think the industry could hit a hundred billion ARR by the end of this year, like 45, 50 for open AI, like 35, 40 for anthropic.”
Douglas: AI industry will reach human-level computer capabilities in 2-3 years
“Which is that in the next two or three years, given the right feedback loops, given the right compute, given the right, you know, elbow grease and this kind of stuff, we think that we as the AI industry are all on track to create something that is at least as …”
Software engineering within AI companies will be fully automated by 2028
“But then that actually really happens by sort of early in 20, 28, like SWE is fully automated. SWE within AI companies is fully automated.”
Prince predicts bot traffic will be 1,000x human traffic within five years
“I think that if you extrapolate this out, you know, in five years, I think you'll see a thousand times more bot traffic than human traffic. And if I had to take kind of an over under bet on that, I'd take the over bet that it's just going to, it's growing at s…”
Prince: There will never be a 14th DNS root server
“There will never be a 14th root server, and the organizations that run them will probably never change as well”
Levie: AI compute cost reductions will take 5 to 10 years
“The data center providers, the labs, et cetera, have pricing power. They don't need to lower their prices on anything. So you're not seeing the typical things that drive down the cost of compute. I'm highly optimistic that that happens over the next five to 10…”
Levie: Average enterprise will use half a dozen AI models
“I think what's going to happen is you're going to have a mosaic of models in the enterprise. I think the average enterprise will certainly be using, you know, half a dozen models in their organization.”
Axiom's proof verifier is 100 times faster than open-source alternatives
“So a lot of the sort of like verify, verify proof is actually, you know, one of our prover tools that's about to be released, and that's actually a hundred times faster than The other counterparts that are the open source, like effort, cloud comparator.”
Dylan Patel: AMD will remain in single-digit percentage AI market share
“I don't think they'll Go beyond, like, I think they'll stay in single digits market share, single digit percentage market share.”
Patel: Data center power consumption will grow from 2% to 10% of US grid
“And then you've got data centers now all of a sudden coming online and going from two percent to 10% of the U S grid in just a handful of years.”
Patel: Data centers will use under 1% of US water by 2030
“So the U.S. Grid will get to, like, 10% of power by, like, 28, 27, is data centers. For water consumption, it's not even gonna crack one percent. By the end of the decade.”
Some countries will abandon AI sovereignty to declare AI neutrality
“Some countries will basically abandon their efforts to achieve AI sovereignty and declare AI neutrality.”
Crespo: Microsoft Excel will still be actively used in ten years
“I have a prediction that Excel will still be here in five years. And there is a good reason. You can keep that. In five years, Excel will still be there. And in 10 years, Excel will still be there.”
Gomez: Discrete diffusion models will not replace the Transformer
“Now there are these discrete diffusion models, which do diffusion, which has been super popular for, like, image understanding, image generation. It's doing that same process for language models, but I still don't see that replacing the transformer.”
Murchison: Ada will autonomously ship product updates from customer service inquiries
“I fully expect that in collaboration with some of the code generation agents, for example, Ada will be able to go from customer inquiry To new product being shipped fully autonomously.”
Masad predicts Replit will eventually reach one billion users
“Our vision, again, it's like, I think we're going to be able to get to, at some point, like a billion users.”
OpenAI aims to reach $100B in ARR by 2029
“The company has extraordinary ambitions to be at a hundred billion dollar in ARR in 29”
Azeem Azhar: 75% of people will use AI daily by 2029
“I think you have to be making quite a bold and, you know, heterodox claim to say that we won't all, by which I mean, 75% of us, be using these things daily in less than seven years from when ChatGPT launched, which was November the 22. And, ah, and that means …”
Ezra expects to offer $500, 10-minute full-body MRIs within three years
“And we're currently at the 13 50 scan, and within two to three years, With a lot more AI we think we're gonna get to a 500 dollar 10 minute full body MRI.”
AI will increase demand for human radiologists over the next decade
“If I am to fast forward five to 10 years, We will need more radiologists than we have now because we will need more medical imaging than we do now.”
Azhar: Mobile data growth should reach 90,000-fold over the next 20 years
“Over the next 20 years, which is two lots of 10 years, we should, if it was, if it grew at the rate it grew over the last decade, it would grow 90,000 times, 300 squared. So if you think it's going to be less than a 90,000 fold growth, you have to have quite a…”
Quantum and optical computing remain 10 to 15 years away from production
“We think that because that's primary research, that, that's a good, ah, 10 to 15 years out, whereas what we looked to do was to take, ah, pre, ah, technology we could manufacture, maybe difficult, but all achievable, so we weren't trying to invent any new law …”
Nguyen: Energy bounds put human-level AI compute 50 years away
“And if you compute the equivalent energy required per neuron, and extrapolating that, it'll take about 50 years to get the equivalent human brain.”
Nguyen: Cost parity for human-brain level AI will arrive in 16 years
“There's another metric you look at in terms of traverse edges per second. And when you look at that, and you say, well, when would it take for it to become human in terms of cost? That's in about 16 years.”
Nanduri predicts 2.5 billion people will be knowledge workers by 2030
“By 2030, there'll be five billion middle class human beings, of which at least half of them will be knowledge workers.”
Stewart: A tech company will become a top 10 global financial institution
“I'd be willing to go out on a limb and say that there is a top 10 global financial institution that is not today, ah, is, is thought of as a internet or non-bank type company.”
Evans: Microsoft Bing will never catch up with Google in search
“Doesn't matter how much money and how hard Microsoft works, Bing will never catch up with Google.”
ByteDance is taking over 1 GW of Oracle data center capacity in Malaysia
“It's instead being built in Malaysia, and Oracle has over a gigawatt of capacity in Malaysia that ByteDance is gonna take, right?”
Patel: Hyperscaler capex will reach roughly $500 billion this year
“Hyperscalers capex is going to be like five hundred billion dollars this year or something like this.”
Lamini switches across 1,000 fine-tuned models in three milliseconds
“With the technology that we've used with parameter efficient fine tuning and just like efficiency, different efficiency methods, that time to switch across a thousand models is three milliseconds”
State of AI Report predicts a fully AI-generated app will hit top 50 App Store charts
“This year we predicted that there would be some kind of like blockbuster app, like call it, I don't know, like Apple store top 100 or top 50 that was like fully written with, in a generative fashion.”
Deep learning systems outperform humans at classifying QR codes
“If I show you QR codes and ask you to classify QR codes, humans will completely fail, whereas deep learning systems will succeed.”
Dixon: Cost of Wi-Fi Linux computers will fall to $1
“You can get a five dollar, you know, Linux It's a computer now with Wi-Fi. It's Wi-Fi enabled. That's going to go to a dollar.”