The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 124 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Hebbia aims to scale to 300-400 employees by the end of 2025
“And so we were opening SF and we've already opened a London office which is incredibly exciting with goals to end the year at 300 to 400 employees.”
George Sivulka May 29, 2025 ▶ 7:30 AI That Ends Busy Work — Hebbia CEO on “Agent Employees”
Assertion Contradicted
Palmer: Sutter Hill Ventures incubates all its portfolio companies in-house
“And where Sutter Hill's a little bit unique is that Sutter Hill doesn't invest in pre-existing companies. All the companies are incubated directly out of Sutter Hill.”
Mike Palmer May 1, 2025 ▶ 7:47 Dashboards Are Dead: Sigma’s BI Revolution for Trillion-Row Data
Assertion Contradicted
Fireworks AI was first to enable function calling for DeepSeek models
“We have been working on function for calling for a long time, and we are the first one to enable function calling for deep seek models.”
Lin Qiao Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 43:58 Why This Ex-Meta Leader is Rethinking AI Infrastructure | Lin Qiao, CEO, Fireworks AI
Assertion Contradicted
Kiela: FAIR was the first team to build a generative RAG model
“Why RAG became the way you name these things is because it's generative, right? So we were the first ones to have a generative model there.”
Douwe Kiela Mar 6, 2025 ▶ 18:38 Top AI Researcher on GPT 4.5, DeepSeek and Agentic RAG | Douwe Kiela, CEO, Contextual AI
Assertion Contradicted
Misra: Existing text-to-video AI models produce only silent B-roll
“If you look at all the video generation models today that are doing text to video, they're all silent videos, right? There's never anybody talking. It's all B-roll, right?”
Gaurav Misra Feb 20, 2025 ▶ 32:15 From Selfie to Studio: Captions CEO on AI Video for 10M Creators
Assertion Contradicted
Replit built Ghostwriter, the first GitHub Copilot alternative
“So we built the first sort of co-pilot alternative, essentially.”
Amjad Masad Feb 6, 2025 ▶ 35:14 The AI Coding Agent Revolution, The Future of Software, Techno-Optimism | Amjad Masad, CEO, Replit
Assertion Contradicted
Hitchcock: No existing database was designed for historical temporal querying
“There's not a single, really a single database out there designed in that specific way to be able to do that”
Tobie Morgan Hitchcock Oct 3, 2024 ▶ 8:03 Building The Database That Can Do It All | Tobie Morgan Hitchcock, CEO of SurrealDB
Assertion Contradicted
Kahn: Fortune prohibits journalists from using AI to write articles
“Again, in, at Fortune, we don't, we're not actually allowed to use them to write articles for us.”
Jeremy Kahn Jul 18, 2024 ▶ 45:29 An inside look at “Mastering AI” | Jeremy Kahn, Author & AI Editor, Fortune
Assertion Contradicted
Dines: Earlybird Digital East accepted common shares in UiPath seed round
“They ended up signing common shares in the end.”
Daniel Dines May 31, 2024 ▶ 21:19 From Tiny Romanian Startup to Global AI Automation Leader | Daniel Dines, CEO of UIPath
Prediction Didn’t hold up
~35 US states will enact data privacy regulations by late 2025
“I think by the end of 20, 25, something like 35 states in the US will have their own privacy regulation.”
Tomasz Tunguz May 16, 2024 ▶ 7:22 AI, Data and Blockchain: a VC perspective | Tomasz Tunguz, Founder of Theory Ventures
Assertion Contradicted
VAST Data enables native SQL querying directly on Parquet objects
“You can write a parquet object and then query it using SQL natively off of our platform without needing any higher layers on top.”
Renen Hallak May 3, 2024 ▶ 15:55 The $9B Startup Going After Snowflake and Databricks | Renen Hallak, CEO of VAST Data
Assertion Contradicted
McGuire: Roblox is the only platform allowing instant, unapproved 3D publishing
“And so it's the only platform where you can do for three D what today you can do for micro blogging, like text or images, which is one person without some sort of app store approval, without becoming a publisher, or that's, you can go and create something that…”
Morgan McGuire Apr 17, 2024 ▶ 6:47 AI at Roblox: Revolutionizing Game Creation | Morgan McGuire, Chief Scientist of Roblox
Assertion Contradicted
Sapoznik: Call center agents face an annual turnover rate near 100%
“And then agents have an average attrition rate of about a hundred percent per year, depending on the year.”
Gustavo Sapoznik Dec 13, 2023 ▶ 2:55 AI vs. Call Centers: ASAPP CEO Gustavo Sapoznik on the Future of Customer Service
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Moonhub AI will likely handle all five recruiting stages by mid-2024
“Today, you know, the AI can't do all five stages of the process I mentioned to you. It might do stage one, stage two, We'll probably get to stage five by mid next year, but in the interim, you have a human who's actually helping you with all those other stages…”
Nancy Xu Oct 18, 2023 ▶ 17:22 Moonhub’s Nancy Xu Unveils the AI Recruiter That’s Beating LinkedIn
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: Not interrupting patients is the primary driver of perceived doctor empathy
“The number one driver of whether you thought you had an empathetic doctor was did they not cut you off when you started telling your story?”
Munjal Shah Aug 23, 2023 ▶ 16:18 Hippocratic AI’s Munjal Shah: Building the First Safety-First LLM for Healthcare
Assertion Contradicted
Liu: Uber and Instabase use LlamaIndex for enterprise data applications
“We've seen people build these workflows at different settings from, for instance, like hacks on projects at startups building, for instance, like track GPT, like, plugin over, like, your Slack or your Notion all the way to kind of, like, bigger companies, for …”
Jerry Liu Jul 12, 2023 ▶ 26:58 Building LlamaIndex: Jerry Liu on Scaling Retrieval-Augmented AI
Assertion Contradicted
Wiggins: Early US computing was funded by intelligence for data processing
“That story had its own mirror on the other side of the Atlantic in Bell Labs, and how Bell Labs played a crucial role in scaling up code breaking as a computational problem that pairs Bell Labs with the nascent intelligence community, which goes on to fund IBM…”
Chris Wiggins May 31, 2023 ▶ 10:34 A Conversation with Chris Wiggins - Author of "How Data Happened"
Assertion Contradicted
Mann: GitHub Copilot is likely the most widely deployed LLM application
“So far the most widely deployed application of the large language models is probably Copilot.”
Gideon Mann Feb 2, 2023 ▶ 12:07 A Conversation on The State of AI | Melanie Kambadur, Meta & Gideon Mann, Bloomberg
Assertion Contradicted
Apache Kafka was built on prior engineering work at Yahoo
“Things like Kafka eventually came out of LinkedIn that was based on work that we had been doing at Yahoo”
Dave Burgess Apr 5, 2021 ▶ 2:38 Fireside Chat: Dave Burgess (Head of Data Engineering, Pinterest) w/ Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)
Assertion Contradicted
Anthony: Pedestrians physically punched Cruise autonomous cars in 2017
“So, in particular I think it was in 2017, the incident reports from crews, there were two or three times where somebody punched the car.”
Sam Anthony Nov 13, 2019 ▶ 8:47 Human Intuition for Machines // Sam Anthony, Perceptive Automata (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Contradicted
Companies with automated sales pipelines grow 2.2x faster than competitors
“Your average organization that builds automated sales pipelines grows 2.2 x faster than any other competitor.”
Rich Waldron Oct 22, 2019 ▶ 5:57 Empowering Superheroes at Work // Rich Waldron, Tray (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Contradicted
Chia: Google Spanner eliminates operational differences between and within shards
“And in Spanner, it's a little bit nicer in that every shard behaves the same, and because we have technologies like, ah, two-phase commit, We are, you don't really have any difference between operating within a shard or across shards, but it's not always true …”
Daniel Chia Feb 25, 2019 ▶ 5:06 Dynamic Range Sharding with Spanner // Daniel Chia, Google Spanner (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Contradicted
Oudghiri: SMB corporate registration addresses do not match physical locations
“None of their addresses and their corporate registrations are actually the addresses that the locations are in.”
Hicham Oudghiri Dec 5, 2018 ▶ 9:01 Knowledge Graphs To Understand The World // Hicham Oudghiri, Enigma (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Contradicted
Dixon: High-end VR headset prices fell 80% over three years
“The price of a high-end VR headset has gone down, I think, like, 80% over the last three years”
Chris Dixon Jun 8, 2018 ▶ 4:11 Fireside Chat: Chris Dixon, General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz (FirstMark's Data Driven)
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: Central Bank of Brazil manages $1 trillion assets using Julia
“The Brazilian National Bank uses Julia to manage all of its trillion dollars in assets.”
Viral Shah Sep 28, 2017 ▶ 14:12 A Fresh Approach to Technical Computing // Viral Shah & Stefan Karpinski, Julia Computing
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Skonnard expects Pluralsight's enterprise pricing to hold while individual pricing drops
“And so over time, I would see the enterprise price point staying where it's at, and the individual price point coming way down.”
Aaron Skonnard Feb 21, 2016 ▶ 30:49 The Role of Data in Pluralsight's Technology Learning Platform // Aaron Skonnard, Pluralsight
Assertion Contradicted
Achin: Non-data scientist advisor placed 5th in Kaggle competition using DataRobot
“One of our advisors, who's not a data scientist, knows nothing about insurance he came in fifth place. And this is out of six hundred-something people including thirty-something Liberty Mutual employees that have competed.”
Jeremy Achin Nov 23, 2015 ▶ 19:55 Black Boxes and Unicorns - DataRobot CEO Jeremy Achin
Assertion Contradicted
Bonobos was the largest U.S. retail company founded online in 2015
“And now we're the largest U.S. Retail company that was founded online.”
David Glueck Jun 19, 2015 ▶ 0:15 David Glueck, Bonobos // Data Science & Engineering at Bonobos (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Assertion Contradicted
DonorsChoose uses its classroom resource data to actively lobby US lawmakers.
“DonorsChoose is now taking these findings, and they're actually becoming an advocacy group. So they are lobbying lawmakers and decision makers to say, hey, did you know this is going on in your school systems? We have this data that once we analyze, we're able…”
Jake Porway May 28, 2015 ▶ 7:08 Jake Porway, DataKind // Data For The Greater Good (FirstMark / Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Contradicted
Brute-forcing a 10-word sentence requires one billion permutations
“For a machine to create a sentence out of 10 words, it has to go through one billion permutations.”
Sameer Maskey May 28, 2015 ▶ 3:04 Sameer Maskey, Fusemachines // Improving Customer Service (FirstMark / Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Contradicted
Crouch: D.C. is largest city with female-led police department
“D.C. Is the largest city in the world whose police department is run by a woman”
Scott Crouch Apr 20, 2015 ▶ 27:01 Scott Crouch and EJ Bensing, Mark43 // Reimagining Police Software (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Prediction Didn’t hold up
US oncology EHR adoption will reach 100% by 2017
“And in oncology that's about 90% or so, and growing. It'll be a hundred percent within the next two years.”
Zach Weinberg Feb 18, 2015 ▶ 4:53 Zach Weinberg, Flatiron Health // Using Data to Cure Cancer // Data Driven NYC (FirstMark Capital)
Assertion Contradicted
Wallach: Research shows diverse teams best facilitate rapid breakthrough innovation
“In fact, there's even substantial research in social psychology and sociology indicating that rapid breakthrough innovations are best facilitated by bringing together people with really diverse backgrounds.”
Hanna Wallach Jan 15, 2015 ▶ 6:13 Hanna Wallach, Microsoft Research // Data Driven #33 // Jan 2015 (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Most data growth to 40 zettabytes by 2020 will originate from sensors
“If you look at the, you know, the forecasts that are going from the 2.8 zettabytes to 40 zettabytes in 2020 that's, most of that data is gonna be coming from sensors, right?”
Mike Abbott Oct 16, 2014 ▶ 17:01 Mike Abbott, KPCB // Data Driven #30 // Oct 2014 (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Assertion Contradicted
Knaup: Chronos distributed system requires zero network programming due to Mesos
“It's a distributed system and it never opens a single socket. There's no network programming whatsoever in Kronos because Mesos takes care of all of that.”
Tobi Knaup Sep 22, 2014 ▶ 13:58 Tobi Knaup, Mesosphere // Data Driven #29 // Sep 2014 (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Assertion Contradicted
Volinsky: AT&T does not sell its customer mobility data
“We actually don't sell it yet at all.”
Chris Volinsky Mar 20, 2014 ▶ 20:25 Chris Volinsky, AT&T // Data Driven #25 // March 2014 (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Assertion Contradicted
The Bureau of Labor Statistics spends $250M annually collecting price data
“Two hundred fifty million dollars a year, it takes the BLS to collect this data”
Joe Reisinger Jan 16, 2014 ▶ 13:13 Joe Reisinger, Premise // Data Driven NYC 21 // Dec 2013 (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Assertion Contradicted
Wilson: 5M teachers and 70M students use Edmodo in the US
“So today, four years later, five million teachers, seventy million students are using it in the K through 12 system here in the United States.”
Fred Wilson Dec 19, 2013 ▶ 9:48 Fred Wilson, USV // Data Driven NYC #18 // Sep 2013 (interviewed by Matt Turck)
Assertion Contradicted
Mike Flowers says every major US city police department uses CompStat
“I don't know of a single police department in a large city in the United States that isn't going a ComStat model.”
Mike Flowers Dec 5, 2013 ▶ 27:13 Michael Flowers, New York City // Data Driven NYC #17 // June 2013
Assertion Contradicted
New McDonald's drive-thrus require FCC licenses, creating trackable alternative data
“Whenever a new McDonald's store opens, they have to file an FCC license for the drive-thru, ah, in order to order.”
Jeremy Bronfman Dec 5, 2013 ▶ 10:07 Jeremy Bronfman, CEO, Enigma // Data Driven NYC #17 // June 2013
Assertion Contradicted
Moody: Boulder, Colorado, has the highest PhDs per capita in America
“They're actually, per capita, have more PhDs than any other city in the United States.”
Chris Moody Dec 5, 2013 ▶ 20:49 Chris Moody, Gnip // Data Driven NYC #3 // Feb 2012
Assertion Contradicted
Walsher: Global software developer population grew 7x since 2006
“Over that time, so from, call it, 2006 all the way to now estimated about seven x growth in the number of global software developers”
David Walsher Jul 3, 2025 ▶ 3:44 AI Engineering Revolution: Winners, Chaos & What’s Next | FirstMark
Assertion Contradicted
Top three cloud providers spend $60B to $70B quarterly on CapEx
“Yeah, 60 to seventy billion per quarter now. From the top three clouds, which it's and it just keeps going up”
Tomasz Tunguz May 16, 2024 ▶ 12:39 AI, Data and Blockchain: a VC perspective | Tomasz Tunguz, Founder of Theory Ventures
Assertion Contradicted
OpenAI inference pricing drops 160x between model generations
“If you look at the pricing page for, like, OpenAI, and you look at the 4.5 turbo, and the cost per inference, and compare it to the next most recent model, there's a 160 X difference in pricing.”
Tomasz Tunguz May 16, 2024 ▶ 14:35 AI, Data and Blockchain: a VC perspective | Tomasz Tunguz, Founder of Theory Ventures
Assertion Contradicted
XtremIO reached $3 billion in sales two years after EMC acquisition
“We hit three billion dollars in two years as part of EMC, of course.”
Renen Hallak May 3, 2024 ▶ 4:55 The $9B Startup Going After Snowflake and Databricks | Renen Hallak, CEO of VAST Data
Assertion Contradicted
McGuire: Roblox releases a new AI feature every couple of weeks
“Every, every couple of weeks we're releasing a new AI powered feature.”
Morgan McGuire Apr 17, 2024 ▶ 20:19 AI at Roblox: Revolutionizing Game Creation | Morgan McGuire, Chief Scientist of Roblox
Assertion Contradicted
AssemblyAI's JAX contribution sped up Whisper model training by 10x
“We actually, I think, published like, made a contribution to Jax to make it, like, 10 times faster to train Whisper.”
Dylan Fox May 1, 2023 ▶ 26:18 Generative AI for Speech Recognition | AssemblyAI Founder & CEO, Dylan Fox
Assertion Contradicted
Berkowitz: ADP handles recruiting for 15% to 18% of US workers
“If we're paying 18% of the country, we're recruiting about 15 to 18% of the country as well through those systems, okay?”
Jack Berkowitz Nov 17, 2022 ▶ 35:02 Leveraging People Data at Scale | ADP Chief Data Officer, Jack Berkowitz
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