Richard Craib

Founder & CEO, Numerai · 1 appearance on the record.

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founderexecutiveinvestor@richardcraib ↗LinkedIn ↗numer.ai ↗

Richard Craib founded Numerai in 2015, an AI-run quantitative hedge fund that aggregates encrypted stock-market predictions built by a global network of data scientists. He also created Numeraire, an Ethereum-based token used by tournament participants to stake value on the performance of their models.

19statements → 8claims → 2claims resolved → 4/5average certainty → 1.79/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated →

2 supported 0 partly supported 0 contradicted 1 not yet assessed 5 not checkable as stated how the 8 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

8 assertions · 4 insights · 7 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 8 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 2 are resolved, 1 is not yet assessed, and 5 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Richard argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported

Craib: Numerai paid $10 million to data scientists in 2021

“We've even, I think even just last year we paid ten million dollars. So it's so much higher than the rewards are so much higher than the other data science competitions on online by orders of magnitude.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 18:49 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

How they sound: speaking style how? →

227 words/min while actually speaking · 47 um and uh per 1k words

No argument clarity score for Richard Craib: only 6 usable question→answer exchanges on raw tape (a fair score needs 8+). We do not score a sample that small. Roundtable and news formats yield far fewer direct exchanges than interviews. Their coarse estimate from 6 raw tape exchanges is ≈4.5/5, shown at half point precision because the sample is small.

Measured by listening to the audio itself: 4,046 words across 1 episode of raw-level tape, transcribed verbatim with every um and uh kept, each one attributed only where the alignment onto our timed stream is unambiguous. These are measurements of speaking style. We do not rank them: across this corpus, fluency and argument quality are nearly uncorrelated (ρ≈0.2), and smooth talking does not signal clear thinking. How it's measured →

What they said19 Episodes1

Everything Richard Craib said on the MAD Podcast that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Craib: Numerai has more data scientists than any other hedge fund

“And so we have the best modeling talent because we have much more More, many more data scientists working on Numeri than any other hedge fund in the world.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 1:42 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Disclosure

Craib: Numerai's goal is to monopolize data and money, then decentralize it

“Numeri's mission is to kind of monopolize intelligence and monopolize data, and then monopolize money, and then decentralize the monopoly.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 12:08 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Numerai fell only 1.5% during the March 2020 market crash

“And you know, for example, in March, 2020, when the market fell 30% in about 20 days we were down one and a half percent.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 3:28 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Assertion Supported

Craib: Numerai paid $10 million to data scientists in 2021

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 18:49 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Insight

Craib: Traditional quant funds frequently collapse after one bad year

“What often happens with these quant funds is they have a good year, and then they have a bad year, and then they kind of die.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 20:58 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Insight

Craib: A 0.5% accuracy gain in quantitative finance dramatically transforms Sharpe ratio

“Especially in the finance domain where, let's say you're currently 52% right. If you can go to 52 and a half percent right, It's like a whole different level of performance for the end investor, a whole different level of shock ratio or returns and risk.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 23:28 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Craib: Numerai hedge fund is closed to all but roughly seven investors

“At the end of this process, we have a hedge fund that is basically closed to everybody except for like seven investors in the world.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 25:50 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Insight

Craib: 55% success on 1,000 assets proves edge better than Bitcoin gains

“If you just put all your money in Bitcoin and for three years it went up, there's something not as good about that as if you put, if you invest in a thousand things and you got on average, 55% of them right.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 32:08 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Assertion Not publicly verifiable

Craib: Some individual Numerai contributors have earned over $1 million

“And there's some users that have made more than a million dollars.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 19:03 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Disclosure

Craib: Numerai users retain all source code and intellectual property

“They never give us their code. They never assigning us IP around their models. They can train them in any way they want to keep them on any server they want. The only thing they have to do is provide us the predictions every week.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 21:50 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Craib: Numerai's crowdsourced meta-model vastly outperforms its internal ML models

“If we do say a linear model just on our data, it sort of performs okay. If we do our own internal machine learning model on the data, it performs better than that. And if we use everyone's model that's being submitted to Numeri, it's way better than even that.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 23:00 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Insight

Craib: Token staking serves to measure data scientist confidence in model generalization

“The whole point of staking is to get an assessment of how much they believe their model will Generalize.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 28:13 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Disclosure

Craib: Numerai spends over $1M per year buying data

“We probably spend more than a million dollars a year on data.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 7:09 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Craib: A top Numerai participant works at NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab

“We have one really good user who works at NASA Jet Propulsion Lab and who's really strong at data science. And he's actually working on a mission to one of Jupiter's moons.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 9:44 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Disclosure

Numerai builds meta-model using stake-weighted average of 5,000 global equity signals

“So everyone's providing signals on all 5000 stocks in global equities, and we take the stake weighted average of all those signals.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 13:32 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Disclosure

Numerai rewards accurate models with NMR tokens and burns failing stakes

“And if your model performs well on Nimri, we'll give you more NMR tokens. And if your model performs badly, we can burn your stake.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 14:52 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Assertion Supported

Craib: Numerai currently has over $15 million in crypto staked

“That's why I think we have, yeah, about right now over fifteen million dollars at stake.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 19:50 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Disclosure

Craib: Numerai charges institutional investors standard 2 and 20 fees

“A big investor could come and give us a hundred million dollars and we would charge two and 20 on the investment.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 20:27 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Disclosure

Craib: Numerai trades around 1,000 stocks with 500 long, 500 short

“So we trade about A thousand stocks at a time. 500 long, 500 short.”

Richard Craib Jan 31, 2022 ▶ 31:31 Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)

Appearances (1)

Episode	Date	Speaking time
Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)	Jan 31, 2022	22m

Richard Craib

The record, in short

Their most notable supported claim

How they sound: speaking style how? →

Appearances (1)

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