The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 19 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Craib: Numerai has more data scientists than any other hedge fund
“And so we have the best modeling talent because we have much more More, many more data scientists working on Numeri than any other hedge fund in the world.”
Craib: Numerai's goal is to monopolize data and money, then decentralize it
“Numeri's mission is to kind of monopolize intelligence and monopolize data, and then monopolize money, and then decentralize the monopoly.”
Numerai fell only 1.5% during the March 2020 market crash
“And you know, for example, in March, 2020, when the market fell 30% in about 20 days we were down one and a half percent.”
Craib: Numerai paid $10 million to data scientists in 2021
“We've even, I think even just last year we paid ten million dollars. So it's so much higher than the rewards are so much higher than the other data science competitions on online by orders of magnitude.”
Craib: Traditional quant funds frequently collapse after one bad year
“What often happens with these quant funds is they have a good year, and then they have a bad year, and then they kind of die.”
Craib: A 0.5% accuracy gain in quantitative finance dramatically transforms Sharpe ratio
“Especially in the finance domain where, let's say you're currently 52% right. If you can go to 52 and a half percent right, It's like a whole different level of performance for the end investor, a whole different level of shock ratio or returns and risk.”
Craib: Numerai hedge fund is closed to all but roughly seven investors
“At the end of this process, we have a hedge fund that is basically closed to everybody except for like seven investors in the world.”
Craib: 55% success on 1,000 assets proves edge better than Bitcoin gains
“If you just put all your money in Bitcoin and for three years it went up, there's something not as good about that as if you put, if you invest in a thousand things and you got on average, 55% of them right.”
Craib: Some individual Numerai contributors have earned over $1 million
“And there's some users that have made more than a million dollars.”
Craib: Numerai users retain all source code and intellectual property
“They never give us their code. They never assigning us IP around their models. They can train them in any way they want to keep them on any server they want. The only thing they have to do is provide us the predictions every week.”
Craib: Numerai's crowdsourced meta-model vastly outperforms its internal ML models
“If we do say a linear model just on our data, it sort of performs okay. If we do our own internal machine learning model on the data, it performs better than that. And if we use everyone's model that's being submitted to Numeri, it's way better than even that.”
Craib: Token staking serves to measure data scientist confidence in model generalization
“The whole point of staking is to get an assessment of how much they believe their model will Generalize.”
Craib: Numerai spends over $1M per year buying data
“We probably spend more than a million dollars a year on data.”
Craib: A top Numerai participant works at NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab
“We have one really good user who works at NASA Jet Propulsion Lab and who's really strong at data science. And he's actually working on a mission to one of Jupiter's moons.”
Numerai builds meta-model using stake-weighted average of 5,000 global equity signals
“So everyone's providing signals on all 5000 stocks in global equities, and we take the stake weighted average of all those signals.”
Numerai rewards accurate models with NMR tokens and burns failing stakes
“And if your model performs well on Nimri, we'll give you more NMR tokens. And if your model performs badly, we can burn your stake.”
Craib: Numerai currently has over $15 million in crypto staked
“That's why I think we have, yeah, about right now over fifteen million dollars at stake.”