Craib: Numerai's crowdsourced meta-model vastly outperforms its internal ML models
Richard Craib · Fireside Chat: Richard Craib (Founder & CEO, Numerai) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark) · Jan 31, 2022 · at 23:00
Richard Craib, Founder and CEO of Numerai, explains how crowdsourcing machine learning models creates an edge over traditional internal modeling.
0:00 / 0:22exact quote · 22.4s
▶ Watch the full episode on YouTube → 720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“If we do say a linear model just on our data, it sort of performs okay. If we do our own internal machine learning model on the data, it performs better than that. And if we use everyone's model that's being submitted to Numeri, it's way better than even that.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Richard Craib
Craib: Numerai has more data scientists than any other hedge fund
“And so we have the best modeling talent because we have much more More, many more data scientists working on Numeri than any other hedge fund in the world.”
Craib: Numerai's goal is to monopolize data and money, then decentralize it
“Numeri's mission is to kind of monopolize intelligence and monopolize data, and then monopolize money, and then decentralize the monopoly.”
Numerai fell only 1.5% during the March 2020 market crash
“And you know, for example, in March, 2020, when the market fell 30% in about 20 days we were down one and a half percent.”
Craib: Numerai paid $10 million to data scientists in 2021
“We've even, I think even just last year we paid ten million dollars. So it's so much higher than the rewards are so much higher than the other data science competitions on online by orders of magnitude.”
Craib: Traditional quant funds frequently collapse after one bad year
“What often happens with these quant funds is they have a good year, and then they have a bad year, and then they kind of die.”
Craib: A 0.5% accuracy gain in quantitative finance dramatically transforms Sharpe ratio
“Especially in the finance domain where, let's say you're currently 52% right. If you can go to 52 and a half percent right, It's like a whole different level of performance for the end investor, a whole different level of shock ratio or returns and risk.”