The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Will Brown: Academia Will Likely Be the Best Source of AI Evals

“I mean, I do think that like the best source of evals going forward is probably going to be academia.”

Will Brown May 23, 2025 ▶ 23:43 ⚡️Multi-Turn RL for Multi-Hour Agents — with Will Brown, Prime Intellect

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Brown: Reasoning effort dropdowns will disappear from chat interfaces

“I think in chat interfaces, it probably won't stick around. Like, I don't think we're always going to have the dropdown of like Oath for many and Oath for many high. That feels silly.”

Will Brown May 23, 2025 ▶ 11:45 ⚡️Multi-Turn RL for Multi-Hour Agents — with Will Brown, Prime Intellect

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The Ledger

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