why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wang: L5 AI engineers can get offers in tens of millions
“You could be an L five and get an offer in the tens of millions.”
Opinion
Wang: Robotics funding prematurely assumes a 'ChatGPT moment' has happened
“It would probably be on the hardware side, actually, right, and the robotics sector, right, which is, it's, I don't want to say that it's not getting funding, because it's clearly it's sort of non-consensus to almost not invest in robotics at this point, but w…”
Insight
Wang: AI playbook is raising capital for compute, launching apps, repeating
“You raise money for compute. You pour that, or you pour the money into compute. You get some sort of breakthrough. You funnel the breakthrough into your vertically integrated application. That could be chat GPT. That could be cloud code, you know, whatever it …”
Insight
Wang: AI startups face a dilemma balancing AGI research with product revenue
“I think the best researchers in the world have this dilemma of, okay, I want to go all in on AGI, but it's the product usage revenue flywheel that keeps the revenue in the house to power all the GPUs to get to AGI. And so it does make you know, I think it sets…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wang: Compute accounts for roughly 80% of foundation model fundraises
“They have compute needs, right? That's 80% of a round that they typically raise, or typically of a round that they raise.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wang: Unnamed AI company hit tens of millions in revenue within weeks
“There's a company, I can't share the name but their product went GA in a few weeks, tens of millions of revenue, right?”
Assertion Supported
Wang: AI startups negotiate 9-figure compute deals six months in
“We talk about buying compute, but there's a huge negotiation involved there in terms of, okay, do you get equity for the compute? What sort of partner are you looking at? Is there a go-to-market? Arm to that. And these are just things on this scale, hundreds o…”
Insight
Wang: AI uniquely translates R&D capital directly into capability and demand
“This is probably also a unique time in that for the first time you can actually trace dollars to outcomes, right? Provided that scaling laws are holding and capabilities are actually moving forward. Because if you can put translate dollars into capabilities ca…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wang: Anthropic Claude Cowork automates complex customer cohort data analysis
“Like for the first time you can actually get one shot data analysis, right? Which, you know, if you're going to do a customer database, analyze a cohort retention, right? That's just stuff that you had to do by hand before. And our team, the other, it was like…”
Disclosure
Wang: a16z invested in Character.AI in January 2023 before Google deal
“So we invested in character in January, 23, which feels like eons ago. I mean, three years ago, feels like lifetimes ago, but and then they did the IP licensing deal with Google in August, 20 four.”