The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Altman: OpenAI reached Level 2 AGI with o1
“I think we clearly got to level two, or we clearly got to level two with O-one.”
Sam Altman Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 1:24:50 Building AGI in Real Time (OpenAI Dev Day 2024)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Altman: o1 is OpenAI's most aligned model ever by a lot
“And O-one is obviously our most capable model ever, but it's also our most aligned model ever by a lot.”
Sam Altman Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 1:33:35 Building AGI in Real Time (OpenAI Dev Day 2024)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: Infinite AI context windows will happen within a decade
“That obviously takes some research breakthroughs, but I assume that infinite context will happen at some point. At some point, it's like, less than a decade.”
Sam Altman Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 2:05:18 Building AGI in Real Time (OpenAI Dev Day 2024)
Prediction Held up
Altman: 10-million-token fast context windows are coming within months
“Even getting to the, like, Ten million tokens of very fast and accurate context, which I expect to measure in, like, months, something like that.”
Sam Altman Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 2:05:30 Building AGI in Real Time (OpenAI Dev Day 2024)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: AI will dynamically render custom real-time interfaces for any request
“At some point in not that many years in the future, you'll walk up to a piece of glass, you will say whatever you want they will have, like, there will be incredible reasoning models, agents connected to everything, there will be a video model streaming back t…”
Sam Altman Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 2:08:17 Building AGI in Real Time (OpenAI Dev Day 2024)
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