why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Agarwal: Filtered 9B Synthetic Data Outperforms 27B Self-Generated Data
“One thing we found consistently, so here what we had two models, nine Gemma, nine B and Gemma, 27 B, and we found consistently that actually generating data from nine B in a compute match setting is always better, even better for distilling or actually improvi…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Agarwal: Logit Distillation Can Match Giant Teacher Models on Reasoning
“My hunch is that the logic-based distillation can go even further, and you might be able to even close the gap with the biggest of the teachers you have, because I don't think you need a huge number of parameters, because the reasoning process is very, very, l…”
Insight
Agarwal: Distillation Drives Year-Over-Year AI Capability Cost Reductions
“The capability which we have right now, maybe next year will be much cheaper to have that same thing. And that likely is the result of distillation, right? Like that's, it's not just because we are doing or figured out something magical. It is because distilla…”
Insight
Agarwal: Distilling a Large Model Outperforms Direct Training on the Same Data
“This is something that people have found again and again, that basically you can train a model on some data, or you can train a bigger model on that data and distill that model to another model, and that distill model is better.”
Insight
Agarwal: Standard distillation KL loss places mass where teacher has none
“The typically what we use is this mode covering KL, the one on the left. That is the standard distillation loss that everyone uses. But you can see the behavior. And you can already see what's weird about it. It's putting a lot of mass on places where there's …”
Insight
Agarwal: Distillation KL direction dictates trade-off between diversity and performance
“There's a trade-off between diversity and performance. So on the y-axis, I'm showing performance. On the x-axis, I'm showing similarity or basically how, like one minus diversity. So more similar things are less diverse. And you can see, depending on the diver…”
Insight
Agarwal: Synthetic data distillation achieves 80% to 90% of target gains
“Try the simplest thing first, which is synthetic data distillation. That already gets you to 80% of the job or 90% of the job.”
Insight
Agarwal: Optimal Post-Training Pipeline Combines Heavy Distillation Followed by RL
“So, so I would think maybe an optimal pipeline would look like you do distillation heavily, but then you still do some RL afterwards, because maybe there's still something you can get out of your reward functions or whatever your post-training stack is.”
Assertion Supported
Agarwal: Gemma 2 Used Soft-Label Logit Distillation During Pre-Training
“GemRTool used distillation for pre-training, where they used logits, or these soft labels, which is rather than having hard zero, one tokens, which is, I want to predict this next token, they have like soft labels for all possible tokens.”
Assertion Supported
Agarwal: DeepSeek Distilled Reasoning Models Using Correctness-Filtered Synthetic Data
“What they did was they took the best model they had, they generated a bunch of samples, they filtered them based on correctness, because these were on tasks like coding, mathematical problem solving, and a bunch of those things. So they saw whatever, what are …”
Insight
Agarwal: Synthetic data distillation bypasses model vocabulary and tokenizer mismatches
“The one nice thing about this kind of distillation is it doesn't matter if you have a vocabulary mismatch, because we're not using the next token distribution or probability labels. You can distill from one model which uses some random tokenizer to another mod…”
Opinion
Agarwal: Developers should use logit distillation over synthetic data for open models
“But for open models, yeah, you can do better because you have access to logits, so why not use them? At least that's my take.”
Insight
Agarwal: Inverting KL Divergence Direction Derives On-Policy Distillation
“All you need to do, at least in math, if you just flip the direction of your KL divergence, so earlier we were minimizing KL between a teacher and student model, if we just swap that order, because KL is not symmetric, you will actually get this kind of distil…”
Assertion Supported
Agarwal: Synthetic Data Distillation Can Outperform Logits on Benchmarks
“It's not always the case that synthetic data distillation beats, oh, sorry, it's worse than logits. Like, sometimes logits can be worse off. So if you look at the T-five base, two-fifty million scenario on GSM-HK, On the last plot, you can see that synthetic d…”
Disclosure
Agarwal: Google DeepMind Used On-Policy Distillation in Gemma Post-Training
“So this kind of thing was used in Jemma DuPo's training. It's mentioned briefly, like, there's no details there, but it was used there.”
Insight
Agarwal: 50/50 mix of KL divergences usually works when goals are unclear
“The general recommendation I would give people is that maybe use a mixture of half and half. Like that's what some people have used, right? That's like saying, yeah, basically saying, I don't know what I want. I just want something to work well enough. I'll ju…”
Insight
Agarwal: Standard RLHF Infrastructure Can Be Repurposed for Model Distillation
“First step is you go to an RLHF, RLXF, whatever framework you have. You turn off the reward term. So you delete the reward part of it. All you are left is some KL term. And now you swap your KL, the anchor policy, to a bigger teacher policy. And there you go. …”
Insight
Agarwal: RLHF and LLM distillation can be combined simultaneously
“You can actually combine RLHF and distillation together, because now you're doing two things at the same time.”
Assertion Supported
Agarwal: Google AI Overviews Uses Speculative Decoding With Distilled Models
“And this was actually used, so I guess the cool application of this I can mention is the next slide, which is AI overviews at Google. I don't know if people have seen this or this kind of thing. Like, there is this thing that comes up, and that actually uses t…”
Assertion Supported
Agarwal: RL literature shows on-policy distillation beats offline methods for agents
“The other thing is in the RL literature, there are, like, results which show that actually this kind of distillation is much more optimal for agentic tasks or really long horizon tasks.”
Insight
Agarwal: Classical RL ideas from games are relevant for LLM agents
“When we are again talking about things like agents and reasoning and whatnot, I think a lot of the things are probably done on a small scale in the RL literature, in games and whatnot, and a lot of those ideas would be relevant again now.”
Insight
Agarwal: Distillation accelerates speculative decoding for large models
“Now, the thing is, the effectiveness of this method depends on how close the sampler, the small model is to the bigger model that we want to speed up, and actually distillation exactly fixes that, which is, by distillation, you can make things closer to each o…”