The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fredrikson: Frontier AI models fall for simulated prompt injections humans would ignore
“While in these scenarios, humans found it very difficult to prompt inject the models, like we're aware of scenarios that a human would never fall for, that like Opus four seven would, right? Like a, you know, an email that comes to your inbox and it says somet…”
Matt Fredrikson Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 22:55 AI Security After Codex and Claude Code — Zico Kolter & Matt Fredrikson, Gray Swan
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fredrikson: Gray Swan Found Jailbreaks in Every OpenClaw User Trajectory Tested
“So we just have a bunch of trajectories of actual people using OpenClaw. And tons and tons of different scenarios and just threw shade at it and like found breaks for each and every one of them, right?”
Matt Fredrikson Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 47:36 AI Security After Codex and Claude Code — Zico Kolter & Matt Fredrikson, Gray Swan
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fredrikson: Unpublicized AI security breaches have already caused real damage
“We know that it has happened and it has caused real damage. That's the factor that's driven some people to us, right? Is they want protection from that.”
Matt Fredrikson Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 1:06:54 AI Security After Codex and Claude Code — Zico Kolter & Matt Fredrikson, Gray Swan
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2026
Fredrikson: Skilled red teamers phish human participants 60% to 70% of the time
“But for a skilled, like, human red teamer, they could fish the human participants, like, with the 60 to 70% success.”
Matt Fredrikson Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 22:20 AI Security After Codex and Claude Code — Zico Kolter & Matt Fredrikson, Gray Swan
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2026
Fredrikson: Top AI browser agents yielded only a handful of successful breaks
“There were a couple of models that seemed to be very, very robust, right? Like the red teamers found just a handful of successful breaks on them.”
Matt Fredrikson Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 22:29 AI Security After Codex and Claude Code — Zico Kolter & Matt Fredrikson, Gray Swan
Assertion Supported
Fredrikson: AI capability does not correlate with prompt injection resistance
“So this scatter plot on the right, right, is essentially like looking for a correlation between capability and attack success rate. So on the X axis, how capable is the model at, you know, GPQA diamond on, on the Y axis. How, how often, you know, were people s…”
Matt Fredrikson Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 30:09 AI Security After Codex and Claude Code — Zico Kolter & Matt Fredrikson, Gray Swan
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fredrikson: Amazon excels at deploying formal software verification, Microsoft in research
“Microsoft historically has been pretty good about it too. More on the research side, Amazon is, is stellar and actually deploying a lot of this.”
Matt Fredrikson Jun 22, 2026 ▶ 42:52 AI Security After Codex and Claude Code — Zico Kolter & Matt Fredrikson, Gray Swan
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