The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: Generative UI will be the killer use case for diffusion LLMs
“But I do think that's going to be the killer use case will be like this generative UI experience that doesn't exist today because the models just take too long to generate tokens.”
Logan Kilpatrick Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 6:51 [AIEWF Preview] Gemini in 2025 and Realtime Voice AI
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Next billions of AI users will onboard via SMS and phone
“I don't think those people are going to come in through, you know, some front end website somewhere. Like those people are going to come in through audio from a telephone to texting to email. Like that's just the most obvious outcome.”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 20:15 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: Model-agnostic infrastructure will emerge for real-time live APIs
“I think hopefully there'll be like some level of like similarity and you'll get some model agnostic infrastructure to help make that, you know, make developers feel a little bit easier about being able to move between models potentially.”
Logan Kilpatrick Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 9:43 [AIEWF Preview] Gemini in 2025 and Realtime Voice AI
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: Flash models will continue surpassing previous Pro model capabilities cheaply
“We keep seeing this jump where the capabilities of the pro models get superseded by the flash models as the next generation comes. So if you look at our two point O flash model is actually on like every dimension, a stronger and better model than the previous …”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 3:29 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: Reasoning and test-time compute will scale faster medium-term
“And it feels like that is. More likely in the medium term going to be the thing that like continues to just like rapidly scale up relative to the other capabilities.”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 5:36 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: Reasoning will solve multi-item retrieval in long context
“And like, it feels like, again, like back to this, the thread around these capabilities, like it feels like long context with reasoning is like finally going to be that thing where like, it actually just like blows the lid off of it. And like, it makes the use…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 11:43 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: Future browsers and IDEs will integrate live multimodal AI screen sharing
“If every browser in the world doesn't have this experience in the future, I'd be surprised if every IDE in the future doesn't have the ability to like, here, let me just show the model what's happening here, share my screen, talk to it live. Like, I think that…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 18:31 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
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