The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: Generative UI will be the killer use case for diffusion LLMs
“But I do think that's going to be the killer use case will be like this generative UI experience that doesn't exist today because the models just take too long to generate tokens.”
Logan Kilpatrick Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 6:51 [AIEWF Preview] Gemini in 2025 and Realtime Voice AI
Disclosure
Kilpatrick: Google's strategy is building Gemini as one single unified model
“Like we're here to make one model and like that model is Gemini. And like, I think you do need to just trust this point, like to make the capabilities work in some cases, like you do need to have these forks that like go off and make that capability and harde…”
Logan Kilpatrick Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 12:25 [AIEWF Preview] Gemini in 2025 and Realtime Voice AI
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: Gemini's SOTA video performance resulted from reasoning, not video engineering
“With reasoning is a great example of this where like multimodal with video understanding ended up like having this huge, like it's having this beautiful moment. The model is like soda out of the box because of all the reasoning capabilities that were baked in…”
Logan Kilpatrick Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 13:19 [AIEWF Preview] Gemini in 2025 and Realtime Voice AI
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Next billions of AI users will onboard via SMS and phone
“I don't think those people are going to come in through, you know, some front end website somewhere. Like those people are going to come in through audio from a telephone to texting to email. Like that's just the most obvious outcome.”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 20:15 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
Opinion
Embeddings will not scale for cross-session memory in real-time AI systems
“I don't think that like embeddings are going to be able to scale to, I think they work well for some of this as like kind of the MVP version of the experience, but I think you're going to need a different experience and it's Probably something like really smar…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 23:41 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
Insight
Kilpatrick: Live AI APIs create severe vendor lock-in due to bespoke infra
“I think if you look at a lot of the live API infrastructure right now, like you really do need to commit that you're like gonna, you know, there's, it's not easily interoperable between different model providers. Like everyone's infrastructure is all bespoke a…”
Logan Kilpatrick Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 9:16 [AIEWF Preview] Gemini in 2025 and Realtime Voice AI
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: Model-agnostic infrastructure will emerge for real-time live APIs
“I think hopefully there'll be like some level of like similarity and you'll get some model agnostic infrastructure to help make that, you know, make developers feel a little bit easier about being able to move between models potentially.”
Logan Kilpatrick Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 9:43 [AIEWF Preview] Gemini in 2025 and Realtime Voice AI
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: Flash models will continue surpassing previous Pro model capabilities cheaply
“We keep seeing this jump where the capabilities of the pro models get superseded by the flash models as the next generation comes. So if you look at our two point O flash model is actually on like every dimension, a stronger and better model than the previous …”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 3:29 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: Reasoning and test-time compute will scale faster medium-term
“And it feels like that is. More likely in the medium term going to be the thing that like continues to just like rapidly scale up relative to the other capabilities.”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 5:36 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
Disclosure
Kilpatrick: Google hot-swaps experimental models without allowing developers to pin old versions
“Framing it as experimental is, is really to try to signal that like one, you shouldn't use this thing in production. like it's You know, rate limits are usually the limitation to stop people from doing this, but to like the model might change. And in certain …”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 6:21 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
Assertion Supported
Noam Shazeer and Jack Rae co-lead Google DeepMind's reasoning effort
“Jack Ray. Yeah. He's been a long time deep mind research scientist, was previously a pre-training person. We actually overlapped at open AI together a little bit, and then is now back at deep mind with no co-leading the reasoning effort.”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 8:34 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: Reasoning will solve multi-item retrieval in long context
“And like, it feels like, again, like back to this, the thread around these capabilities, like it feels like long context with reasoning is like finally going to be that thing where like, it actually just like blows the lid off of it. And like, it makes the use…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 11:43 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kilpatrick: Future browsers and IDEs will integrate live multimodal AI screen sharing
“If every browser in the world doesn't have this experience in the future, I'd be surprised if every IDE in the future doesn't have the ability to like, here, let me just show the model what's happening here, share my screen, talk to it live. Like, I think that…”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 18:31 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
Opinion
Kilpatrick: Multimodal Live API provides 80% of Project Astra experience
“I think most probably like 80% of that experience you could get out of the box with the multimodal live API.”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 22:38 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
Disclosure
Kilpatrick: Gemini 2.5 Pro will allow disabling thinking in early June
“Thinking budgets coming to 2.5 pro. So, and you can also, you'll be able to disable thinking as well. So if you just want 2.5 pro is like a raw non reasoning model, we'll have that hopefully in early June”
Logan Kilpatrick Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 1:30 [AIEWF Preview] Gemini in 2025 and Realtime Voice AI
Assertion Supported
Kilpatrick: Google's implicit caching automatically passes cost savings to developers
“Explicit caching is nice. Like there's definitely use cases where it makes sense, but people want implicit caching. So I'm happy passing the cost saving on to developers. You don't have to do anything. It just works right now and you're saving money.”
Logan Kilpatrick Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 4:09 [AIEWF Preview] Gemini in 2025 and Realtime Voice AI
Assertion Supported
Google simplifies Gemini Flash pricing to flat 10 cents per million tokens
“So it went from seven and a half cents per million tokens to 10 cents. The sort of way that this was offset was we used to distinguish. I don't know if folks are familiar with this, but we used to distinguish based on input token volume. So it was like over a …”
Logan Kilpatrick Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 2:16 Gemini 2.0 Flash and Flash Thinking: the new SOTA models for the agentic era
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