The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Qiu: Models lack reasoning because the internet lacks explicit reasoning data
“And models today, they're not optimized for reasoning. It turns out that there's not actually that much explicit reasoning data on the internet.”
Qiu: Synthetic code data can improve reasoning better than human code
“Code also is a big piece of improving reasoning. So yeah generated code is not That much worse than, like, regular human written code. You might even say it could be better in a lot of ways.”
Qiu: Pure reinforcement learning cannot deliver planning and reasoning
“The second thing we learned is that reinforcement learning is not a good vehicle. Like, pure reinforcement learning is not a good vehicle for planning and reasoning.”
Kanjun Qiu: Most autonomous AI agents do not work well today
“So to your question of, like, what agents work well and what doesn't work well, like, most of the agents don't work well, and we're slowly making them work better by improving the underlying model and improving these.”
Kanjun Qiu: Chat is a skeuomorphic, primitive interface for AI agents
“Chat as an interface is skeuomorphic. So in the early days, when we made word processors on our computers, they had notepad lines because that's what we understood you know, these like objects to be chat. Like texting someone is something we understand. So tex…”
Qiu: RAG is inadequate for scientific AI reasoning and cumulative synthesis
“I don't think RAG is enough for that kind of thing. But RAG is certainly enough for, like, user preferences and things like that.”
Kanjun Qiu: Agent reliability's final 20% is as hard as self-driving cars
“Agents haven't been productized yet for, partly for this reason, is that, like, the abstractions are very leaky. You know, we can get, like, 80% of the way there, but, like, self-driving cars, like, the remaining 20% is actually really difficult.”
Qiu: RL algorithms do not work at all without a curriculum
“One is with no curriculum, RL algorithms don't work at all.”
Qiu: Code is the most explicit reasoning curriculum for AI models
“Code is the most explicit example of reasoning data on the internet. Yeah. And it's not only structured, it's actually very explicit, which is nice. You know, it says this variable means this and then it uses this variable and then the function does this. Like…”
Qiu: Recruiting software suffers high churn because success halts hiring
“Recruiting is a market that is endogenously high churn. Which means, because people start hiring, and then we hire the role for them, and they stop hiring.”
Qiu: AI will provide free intellectual energy like the Industrial Revolution
“And what's happened over the last 150 years since the Industrial Revolution is we've kind of gotten free energy. Like, energy is way more free than it was a 150 years ago. And so, as a result, we've built all these technologies, like the stove, and the dishwas…”