The Ledger
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why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Krause: AI models cannot qualify new aerospace alloys without physical experiments
“A model can't figure out your way through the qualification pipeline for a new alloy for a jet turbine. You have to do experiments to do that”
DeepMind, Microsoft, and Meta are building or using physical science labs
“You see people like Google DeepMind, Microsoft, other places like Meta, either building their own lab or running experiments at someone else's lab to get that data back.”
Krause: Commercial airplanes still use alloys from the 1950s to 1970s
“The alloys that are in the plane I flew here on, the 19 fifties, 19 sixties, 19 seventies, they might be coated with some CMZs from the late 19 nineties.”
Krause: Hafnium prices surged 10x to 15x due to Chinese supply dominance
“Hafnium, 10 to 15 X in price, because China owns a majority of the supply chain, things like refractories, tampium, niobium.”
Krause: Radical AI's Matrix VLM boosts scientific reasoning by 5-16%
“Now we have actually seen this, and you can go read the publication, it's on archive, where the public data set that we used actually is showing improvements, like five to 16%, I believe, on general scientific reasoning.”