The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dean: General AI models will win out over specialized ones
“I mean, I think general models will win out over specialized ones in most cases.”
Jeff Dean Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 49:39 The AI Frontier: from Gemini 3 Deep Think distilling to Flash — Jeff Dean
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dean: Software development will shift to managing independent AI agent teams
“And so I do think there's going to be more of a style of having lots of independent software agents off doing things on your behalf and figuring out the right sort of human computer interaction model and UI and so on for, When should it interrupt you and say, …”
Jeff Dean Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 1:11:35 The AI Frontier: from Gemini 3 Deep Think distilling to Flash — Jeff Dean
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2031
Dean: AI systems will achieve 20x to 50x lower latency
“And I think, you know, in the future we'll see models that are, and underlying software and hardware systems that are 20 x lower latency than what we have today, 50 x lower latency.”
Jeff Dean Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 1:19:55 The AI Frontier: from Gemini 3 Deep Think distilling to Flash — Jeff Dean
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dean: Personalized models with full personal context will beat generic models
“A personalized model that knows you and knows all your state and is able to retrieve overall state you have access to that you opt into is going to be incredibly useful compared to a more generic model that doesn't have access to that. So like, can something a…”
Jeff Dean Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 1:21:34 The AI Frontier: from Gemini 3 Deep Think distilling to Flash — Jeff Dean
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