The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brockman: Post-AGI humans will survive without work, but compute will differentiate capability
“And so I think that the question of exactly how, you know, if you don't do work, do you survive? I think the answer will be yes. You'll have plenty of material, your material needs met. But I think the question of Can you do more? Can you have not just generat…”
Greg Brockman Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 1:06:26 Greg Brockman on OpenAI's Road to AGI
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brockman: AI models will soon get very good at CUDA kernels
“Things like Cuda kernels are a good example of a very self-contained problem that actually our models should get very good at very soon, but it's just difficult because it requires a lot of domain expertise, a lot of like real abstract thinking. But again, it'…”
Greg Brockman Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 52:14 Greg Brockman on OpenAI's Road to AGI
Prediction Held up
Brockman: Most AI compute will shift from training to inference
“We're going to move from a world where most of the compute is training the model as we've deployed these models more, you know, more of the compute goes to inferencing them and actually using them.”
Greg Brockman Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 14:13 Greg Brockman on OpenAI's Road to AGI
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brockman: Future dev architecture will combine local, remote, and multiplayer agents
“And then you have your codex infrastructure that has a local agent and a remote agent, and that is able to seamlessly, you know, interplay between the two and then is able to multiplayer. Like, this is what the future is going to look like, and it's going to b…”
Greg Brockman Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 49:48 Greg Brockman on OpenAI's Road to AGI
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