The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Crivello: A Few Very Big Horizontal AI Agent Platforms Will Dominate
“I think AI is going to completely penetrate every category of software, but then I also think there are going to be a few very, very, very big horizontal agents that serve a lot of functions for people.”
Crivello: AI Agent Software Will Create Trillions Replacing Human Labor
“It's going to sound like an exaggeration, but it is a fact that it's going to create trillions of dollars of value in a few years, right? It's going to, for the first time, we're actually having software directly replace human labor.”
Crivello: Infinite and cheap context windows will arrive within 18 months
“Now we just assume that infinite context windows are going to be here in a year or something, a year and a half and infinitely cheap as well. And dynamic compute is going to be here. Like we just assume all of these things are going to happen.”
Crivello: Tech industry will not fix OAuth for AI agents before AGI
“I'm not optimistic On us actually patching OAuth, because I agree with you ultimately, like we would want to patch OAuth, because the new account thing is kind of a cludge. It's really a hack. You would want to patch OAuth to have more granular access control …”
Crivello: AI has 10% p(doom) and 90% chance of disease-free utopia
“My PDOOM, insofar as I can quantify it, which I cannot, But if I had to, like, my vibe is like, 10% or something like that? And so there's also like a 90% chance that we live in like a pure utopia, right? And that's awesome, right? So like, let's go after the …”
Crivello: Future businesses will operate like Factorio with thousands of AI agents
“We actually very often talk about how the business of the future is like a game of factorial. It's like you just wake up in the morning and you've got your Lindy instance. It's like Slack and you've got like 5000 Lindys in the sidebar and your job is to someho…”