why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ethan He: Falling inference costs will enable generative UIs for everything
“So I think as a inference cost come down, we are going to have generative UI for everything.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ethan He: LLM Video Agents Will Orchestrate Diffusion Models and Editing Tools
“Video agents, mostly language models, they'll call these generative model, either it's a separate model or a diffusion head or whatever as tool. So this model can iteratively Refine the results or even like you generate longer content through a very long trend…”
Prediction Held up
Ethan He: Video Agents Will Reach Production-Grade Quality by Year-End
“I guess by the end of this year is this is going to be a big hit. So the inflection point will be there and the videos generated by video agents can get to like production great quality. So it can be presented and it can be distributed in, in ads.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ethan He: Neural OS models can synthesize novel user interfaces
“So if you train your neural OS or neural computer on the standard screen recordings on the entire internet, the model can imagine completely new interface to interact with the computer.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ethan He: Powerful video AI will naturally learn to control physical robots
“Once these models can use computers and understand the future state of computer extremely well, the robots might be Might be one of the tools a very powerful AI can use. So the powerful AI might just be able to control the physical embodiment naturally.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ethan He predicts world models will culminate in real-time neural computers
“I think the final state will be, for example, like a video version of Playbook where you can interact with a neural computer. You move your mouse and you click on the generative interface. And it will reply to you through, through pixels generally in real time…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ethan He: RLMs and video models will dynamically pull context like humans
“But humans' contacts can, like, attention can work because we can dynamically pull in contacts from different places. The same mechanism I think it's going to happen for RLMs and video models.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ethan He: AI watermarking will remain vulnerable to reverse-engineering
“As a limitation is like the technology is, as a paper, Was out there and people can reverse engineer that how to get rid of it. And it's, I think even as it advance, it's still, still possible to reverse engineer it.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ethan He: Video Agents Will Transition to Fully Automated Video Production
“So in, in Asian, in Gorky Imagine agent mode, you can still go in there and do, do stuff by yourself. Gradually, as the model capability increase, it will be able to do everything fully automated.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ethan He: LLMs will soon become context-aware and manage context
“I think one thing pretty, pretty interesting. I think might be happening soon is the language models will be like context aware and manage its own context.”