The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Luan: AI will converge into a universal byte model across all modalities
“Multimodal models are becoming more of a thing, we're behavioral cloning the visual world, but really what we're just going to have is this like universal byte model, right? Where like tokens of data that have high signal come in, and then all of those pattern…”
David Luan Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 6:15 Why Google failed to make GPT-3 -- with David Luan of Adept
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Luan: Future AI value will shift from base models to agents
“In a world where foundation models are looking more and more commodity. And if, and I think a huge amount of gain is going to happen from how do you use foundation models as like the, like well learned behavioral cloner to go solve agents.”
David Luan Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 23:50 Why Google failed to make GPT-3 -- with David Luan of Adept
Prediction Held up
Multimodal models will completely supplant text-only large language models
“I actually think like it's really clear today. Multimodal models are the default foundation model, right? It's just going to supplant LLMs. Like why did you just train a giant multimodal model?”
David Luan Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 28:05 Why Google failed to make GPT-3 -- with David Luan of Adept
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pure-play foundation model companies will be commoditized by Llama and big tech
“I think pure play foundation model companies are just gonna be pinched by how good The next couple of llamas are going to be, and the next, like, what next good open source thing, and then seeing the really big players put ridiculous amounts of compute behind …”
David Luan Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 42:31 Why Google failed to make GPT-3 -- with David Luan of Adept
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Luan: Training foundation models for robotics via behavioral cloning will work
“One, I'm so excited for someone to train a foundation model of robots. Like, it's just, I think it's just gonna work. Like, I will die on this hill. I mean, like, again, this whole time, like, we've been on this podcast, just continually saying, you know, like…”
David Luan Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 44:47 Why Google failed to make GPT-3 -- with David Luan of Adept
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Luan: Everyone will have an AI teammate at work within years
“I think in a couple years everyone's going to have access to, like, an AI teammate that they can delegate Arbitrary tasks do at work, and then also be able to, you know, use it to the sounding board and like just be way, way, way more productive”
David Luan Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 16:14 Why Google failed to make GPT-3 -- with David Luan of Adept
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Luan: Product-model co-evolution will drive AI progress over next years
“The number one driver of AI progress over the next couple of years is going to be the deep co-design and co-evolution of like product and users for feedback and actual technology.”
David Luan Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 4:01 Why Google failed to make GPT-3 -- with David Luan of Adept
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