The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Luan: AGI means performing any task a human can do on a computer
“I think agents are just absolutely the correct long-term direction, right? You just go to find what AGI is, right? You're like, hey, like, Well, first off, actually, I don't love AGI definitions that involve human replacement because I don't think that's actua…”
Luan: LLMs shortcut evolutionary RL by behaviorally cloning all human knowledge
“Like de novo RL is like a pretty terrible way to get there quickly. Why are we rediscovering all the knowledge about the world? Like years ago, I had a debate with a Berkeley professor as to like what will it actually take to build HCI? And his view is basical…”
Luan: Augmentation develops core AI capabilities faster than full automation
“I actually think that being an augmentation company Forces you to go develop your core AI capabilities faster than someone who's saying, ah, ok, my job is to deliver you a lights off solution for X.”
Real-world computer workflows with end-to-end API coverage are close to zero
“If you go itemize out the number of things you want to do on your computer for which every step has an API those numbers of workflows add up pretty close to zero.”
Luan: Frontier AI advantages come from unpublished, non-academic scaling knowledge
“There's a collection of really hard-wanted knowledge that you get only by being at the frontiers of scale. And that hard-wanted knowledge, a lot of it's not published. A lot of it is, like, stuff that, like, it's actually not even easily reducible to what look…”
Luan: Agent failures often stem from unreliable actuators, not models
“Everyone under values the importance of really good sensors and actuators. And actually a lot of what's helped us get a lot of reliability is like a really strong focus on like, actually, why does the model not do this thing? And the non-trivial amount of time…”