The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Taskaya: 80% of promotional video content will be AI-generated within 12 months
“Like 12 months, I think like 80% of this is going to be generated.”
Taskaya: Training a state-of-the-art image model costs under $1M
“Like right now, like if you look, if you want to train a Sota image model, I don't think it's going to cost more than a million dollars. It's extremely cheap. It's like a matter of data engineering effort, cleaning. It's, I think it's a function of data set.”
Taskaya: Model architectures will keep churning due to researcher novelty bias
“I think the architecture is going to keep changing until this, like, paradigm of, like, you know, researchers changing stuff for the sake of changing, you know, finishes.”
Taskaya: 1,000x More Compute and Data Will Yield Accurate Physics Simulators
“It's just a matter of like data scale and like the underlying fundamental architectures. But like, I don't think it's going to change that much. We're just like, we're going to put thousand X more data, thousand X more compute, and we'll get like the best phys…”