why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Taskaya: NSFW content makes up less than 1% of Fal traffic
“Moderation is optional to a level where, like, illegal content is moderated, and we also track, like, the non-illegal content NSFW moderation, and, like, we haven't seen, like, we haven't seen more than one percent.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taskaya: 80% of promotional video content will be AI-generated within 12 months
“Like 12 months, I think like 80% of this is going to be generated.”
Prediction Held up
Taskaya: Training a state-of-the-art image model costs under $1M
“Like right now, like if you look, if you want to train a Sota image model, I don't think it's going to cost more than a million dollars. It's extremely cheap. It's like a matter of data engineering effort, cleaning. It's, I think it's a function of data set.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taskaya: Model architectures will keep churning due to researcher novelty bias
“I think the architecture is going to keep changing until this, like, paradigm of, like, you know, researchers changing stuff for the sake of changing, you know, finishes.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Taskaya: 1,000x More Compute and Data Will Yield Accurate Physics Simulators
“It's just a matter of like data scale and like the underlying fundamental architectures. But like, I don't think it's going to change that much. We're just like, we're going to put thousand X more data, thousand X more compute, and we'll get like the best phys…”