The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 48 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
White: Molecular dynamics and DFT are overrated in materials science
“So, I think molecular dynamics is overrated. And DFT is overrated. In fact, DFT may be even more overrated than like the dynamics.”
White: AI for Science Is Difficult in Academia and Demands Bigger Bets
“AI over science is just, I think, A, difficult to do in academia, and B, so exciting, but I think you can take bigger bets, and I think having a tenured position and writing research grants is maybe not the biggest bet you can take on, on a field.”
White: Existing LLMs Are Already Capable of Automating Much of Science
“We can actually automate so much of the scientific method, because it turns out, especially in a field like biology, which is very empirical limited, you know, the top one percent guesser of, you know, what they think will happen in experiment that, you know, …”
White: AI Science Agents Do Not Require Bespoke Automated Labs
“We don't actually have to hold their hands so much anymore, or like they don't actually need to necessarily have an automated lab. They can like write an email to a CRO or something, or they can like tell you what experiment to do. And you can take a video of …”
White: Simulating biological systems hits fundamental limits; empirical lab measurement is unavoidable
“Basically the best model whatever, Opus seven or GPT 10, like it really can only propose the first experiment, maybe slightly more clever, but at a certain point you just need information, right? Like some little calculations you can do that, like, there's mor…”
Logistics Data Matters More Than Frontier LLM Intelligence in Lab Science
“I think whether GPT, 5.2 codex max or Opus 4.5 is going to do better. It's probably doesn't matter. It's just a matter of like, which one's going to have all the information about what's in the lab and how much will it cost? How long will it take?”
White: RLHF fails on scientific hypotheses by ignoring impact and information gain
“We learned a lot about how bad our LHF is with people, just like people pay really attention to the tone, to the details, to like how many specific facts or figures on the hypothesis, right? Like actionability about like if the experiment is feasible, but what…”
White: Verifiers in the loop provide higher signal than hypothesis rankings
“I have a lot more faith in these, like verifier-in-the-loop kind of scenarios where you have either data analysis, literature search, or you're running a unit test, or whatever, you're going and running the experiment. Anything like that, I think, is going to …”
White: A world model serves as unifying glue for scientific agents
“In cosmos, we basically, we had all the pieces sitting around. We working on world models, we working on data analysis agent, working on literature agent. And then we're working on, you know, we built a platform for scientific agents. So we had things that can…”
White: ML trained on experimental data beat first-principles simulations by a large margin
“Two very well-resourced groups. They both tried different ideas, and the machine learning on experimental data beat out first principles simulation by You know, a very large margin.”
White: Synthesis routes for dangerous compounds are already available on Wikipedia
“You can go find the synthesis route for many dangerous compounds on Wikipedia. People know what are the targets in the human body that, like, are targeted by most biological weapons. It's not really that much of a mystery.”
White: New AI laboratory risk scenarios have become realistic
“To some extent, there was like a first wave that we thought this could unlock a lot of stuff and I don't think it came to pass. I think there's now an emerging sort of second wave of like, there are some actually new scenarios that were just too farfetched to …”
Andrew White: Automating scientific discovery will increase overall demand rather than displace jobs
“In science, I don't think there is a finite appetite or a finite capacity for science. I don't think science is like a scarcity thing. Like there's, you know, 100 more discoveries left to be made and then we'll be done. And so like we're displacing jobs. I thi…”
White: FutureHouse bypassed custom foundation models to focus on scientific agents
“For example, at future house, we took the opinion that scientific agents are the future, and that allows us to skip a lot of steps because a lot of other people were like, we need to build a foundation model for X. Yeah. And we just skipped all that.”
White: ChemCrow paper was presented to U.S. President in 30-minute block
“I ended up visiting the white house. I guess my paper was like the only time a preprint or peer review paper was presented to the president on like their schedule for like a 30 minute block.”
White: Co-Scientist uses LLM ranking while Robin filters with data and literature
“In co-scientists, their filtration process was other LLMs sort of ranking it with rubrics or like personas. And our filtration process was like literature search and data analysis.”
White: LLMs Filter Scientific Hypotheses as Well as Human Domain Experts
“Nowadays, I actually would argue that if you go to an LLM and you ask it to evaluate, you know, hypotheses, including some garbage ones, it will probably do as good of a job as an expert in the field and filtering them out. That's not always the case.”
White: AI hits 60-70% on Bixbench, matching human expert agreement
“We're getting to 60%, 70% correctness on Bixbench, and we found that actually we're at the point where humans disagree at this level. Like, humans only agree 70% of the analysis, and so it's true that, like, when it comes to analyzing data, like, humans do not…”
White: Medicinal chemistry is an AI-resistant field driven by superstition
“You want to know what the real modern dark arts are that like AI resistant area of the world is like a medicinal chemistry that is like, The spot where, like, you know, there's so much superstition.”
White: Simulations model boring things well but fail on interesting phenomena
“So I think this is one of the fundamental, I don't know, dichotomies of the world is that simulations stimulate really boring things really well. They don't simulate interesting things very well.”
White: A good protein folding model can be trained in ~10,000 GPU hours
“I think the numbers are now like 10,000 GPU hours you can train a good protein folding model. It's actually turned out to be barely an inconvenience.”
White: LLMs do not meaningfully accelerate physical CBRN and nuclear threats
“The classical example of nuclear is like, it's a lot of centrifugation, a lot of ultra centrifugation, a lot of high pressure or high RPMs. And so it, It's just, you can maybe get smarter about how to set up, you know, the economy of scale to do that with an L…”
Andrew White: Funding $1M+ Cash Salaries With VC Equity Is Insane
“There are some venture backed companies that are having cash salaries over a million dollars. And it's like insane to me that you would use all of your cash from your equity financing You know, in these insane salaries.”
White: Scientists will remain active producers because they are the primary consumers of science
“I think the enjoyers of science are also scientists. And so I think that it's kind of hard to imagine a scenario when there's not scientists as the consumers of science. And so I think if they're going to be consumers of science, they're also going to be some …”
White: Engineering Can Run Autonomously, but Science Requires Human Interpretation
“Engineering can exist by itself. Like if you give some kind of system, a goal of like making me a material that I can make a space elevator out of, you could be not participating in the beginning, the process of the middle, the process, and you just come by th…”
White: Natural language is the only way to connect all scientific data
“And so I think that that, for that reason, natural language is the only possible way to connect all the different pieces of data we need in biology, medicine, or any domain for that matter.”
White: Writing bulletproof RL verifiers is far harder than supervised training
“Pre-training or training transformers, you know on just data, like just supervised training where you just have the inputs and the outputs directly, very nice, relaxing, you know, like things are always robust, you know, things go pretty smoothly. When we do t…”
White: DE Shaw Research Had Similar or Greater Funding Than DeepMind
“They had, you know, similar funding to DeepMind, probably more actually.”
White: Molecular dynamics is reviving to generate simulation data
“Molecular dynamics which I think is actually suddenly becoming interesting again, as everyone's looking for ways to generate data from first principle simulation, and molecular dynamics, you know, covers basically everything that's molecules moving around in d…”
White: Maximum entropy modeling is the inverse of machine learning
“This theory called maximum entropy. And it's about like, how do you take complex simulations and match them to limited observations? And it's like the inverse of machine learning. Machine learning is like, you have simple models, you're going to a lot of data …”
White: Machine learning in chemistry centers on graphs, symmetry, and geometry
“In chemistry, it's all about graphs, right? It's all about how do you represent these graph structures. It's all about symmetry and geometry.”
White: OpenAI reached out to red team new models after reading his chemistry paper
“And then opening eye, some people there Lama was there. She saw this paper, and they reached out, like, hey, we're building this new model, and we think it'd be great to red team it to see, like, what could happen with these models if they're applied to chemis…”
White: Future House Focuses on Discovery Loops Over System Modeling
“We're trying to automate the like cognitive process of scientific discovery, making hypotheses. Choosing experiments to do, analyzing the results from experiments and using it to update your hypotheses or your confidence in those hypotheses, and then leading t…”
White: AI models struggle to capture 'scientific taste' and distinguish exciting results
“Models don't capture that so well about knowing what is an exciting result and what is a boring result. So I think that's like a scientific taste.”
White: Human expert hypothesis rankings failed to predict wet-lab success
“And one of the things that came out of the Robin paper is that the hypothesis that people thought was best was not the one that led to success in that paper.”
White: AI's advantage over humans is rapidly testing more enumerated ideas
“And I think that's the easy way to succeed in an AI over humans is you can try more ideas faster.”
White: Cosmos's 50% benchmark score stems from subjective result interpretation
“That number that was 50% that came from cosmos's interpretation of some of the analysis. So like it might go in literature and find this result. And then it would say, wow, this is super exciting. This is amazing. Or it might do data analysis, but this is a no…”
White: Frontier AI models cannot handle molecules well
“We noticed that the frontier models can't work with molecules very well. So let's make a model with intuition for medicinal chemistry. And that was what led to ether zero.”
White: A scientific agent world model is analogous to a Git repo
“Your Git repo is like a distillation of all of the work that people put into the PRs, into the commits, and so I think there's a nice analogy between a Git repo and what a world model is.”
White: AI accelerates dual-use logistics like equipment sourcing and KYC
“All those, like, sort of simple logistical things, I think, are accelerated by AI, just as, like, a consequence of AI being an accelerating technology.”
White: Future scientists will act as AI agent wranglers exploring 100 ideas simultaneously
“My vision for what a scientist would be in the future is that They will be, I don't know, like agent wranglers or cosmos wranglers of like, okay, they're exploring a hundred ideas simultaneously, or they're like working with systems like ours to make an X the …”
White: Taking strong, imperfect opinions drives faster scientific progress than optionality
“I think in my career, it's actually been better for me to take strong opinions, which in my deepest of hearts, I know that are maybe not correct or not fully correct. But once you take these strong opinions, it just, You can sort of move many steps down the ro…”
White: DE Shaw Research Hardcoded Molecular Dynamics into Custom Silicon
“They built their own silicon. They built their own clusters. They had them taped out all themselves. They burned into the silicon the algorithms to run MD.”
Andrew White Began Red-Teaming GPT-4 in August 2022
“And so I was a red teamer for GPT-IV and I was using it like nine months with me for release with August. So GPT-IV came out in March and I was using it in August.”
White: Sam Rodriques Conceived FRO Model with Schmidt and Kalil
“Sam had been talking to Eric Schmidt and Tom Khalil, who was also a National Security Counsel at the Obama Administration, about how to like, scale up these ideas. And so Sam had this concept of, like, focused research organizations”
Andrew White Resigned University Tenure to Co-Found Edison
“I did resign my tenure position when we co-founded Edison.”