The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,445 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 100 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Garg: Context graphs will be AI's most critical layer over next decade
“There is an intermediate abstraction Which we call context graphs, which is the accumulation of decision traces. And this incumulated abstraction, in our opinion, will be the one that will matter the most over the next decade. It's the enduring layer for the m…”
Garg: Context graph stack will eclipse modern data stack value by 10x
“Two, I think the enabling infrastructure stack for context graphs would be well-defined. And there will be variations and flavors, but, you know, I totally anticipate that this time next year we'll be writing, okay, here's, here's the way, here's the best prac…”
White: ML trained on experimental data beat first-principles simulations by a large margin
“Two very well-resourced groups. They both tried different ideas, and the machine learning on experimental data beat out first principles simulation by You know, a very large margin.”
White: Synthesis routes for dangerous compounds are already available on Wikipedia
“You can go find the synthesis route for many dangerous compounds on Wikipedia. People know what are the targets in the human body that, like, are targeted by most biological weapons. It's not really that much of a mystery.”
Andrew White: Automating scientific discovery will increase overall demand rather than displace jobs
“In science, I don't think there is a finite appetite or a finite capacity for science. I don't think science is like a scarcity thing. Like there's, you know, 100 more discoveries left to be made and then we'll be done. And so like we're displacing jobs. I thi…”
Weil: 2026 for AI in science will mirror 2025 software engineering
“I think, 2026 for ai and science is going to look a lot like what 2025 looked like for soft ai and software engineering yeah where if you go back to the beginning of 2025 if you were using ai heavily to write your code you were sort of an early adopter and lik…”
Tay: Most specialized tools will be subsumed directly into model parameters
“Then the most I can see in the future is there'll be a model then that, that is, there's something that really cannot be subsumed by a model. Then you just use a tool or something, right? But my prediction is that I think most things can be subsumed by the mod…”
Yi Tay: The Architecture That Achieves AGI Will Still Be a Transformer
“It will be a transformer, I think. Like people, it depends on what you call it, but I think unless the paradigm shifts completely, which is, I mean, as a scientist, you cannot like completely say no to like that, this would never happen. But my feeling is that…”
Reggio: Simple web research agents outperformed RL for credit underwriting at Brex
“We made this big investment. We were working with some outside, like the, like a company that specializes in this and the performance we ended up getting was inferior to just building a, like a web research agent.”
Cameron: General model intelligence does not correlate with hallucination rates
“One interesting aspect is that we've found that there's not really a, not a strong correlation between intelligence and hallucination rate. That's to say that the smarter the models are in a generalist sense isn't correlated with their ability to, when they do…”
Models perform better in custom agent harnesses than native web chatbots
“And what's really interesting is that if you compare, for instance, Claude, 4.5 Opus using the Claude web chatbot, it performs worse than the model in our Agentic harness. And so in every case, the model performs better in our agentic harness than its web chat…”
Cameron: Model performance correlates with total parameters, not active parameters
“We, in our benchmark, see a lot of performance correlated more with total parameters than active, and not that correlated with how sparse like the models are. Our accuracy benchmark is part of a omniscience. It's very correlated with total. It's not correlated…”
Frontier AI research requires up to $100B, far exceeding NSF budgets
“It was one billion dollars a year for computer science and that they're trying to cut that into half of that, but we need 10 to a hundred billion dollars to do frontier AI research.”
Arena's anonymous Nano Banana test moved Google's stock and product roadmap
“I mean, that moment alone changed Google's like roadmap. Market share. Seriously. I mean, Google stock, billions of dollars are moving because of Nano.”
McGrath: Specialized and Frontier Reasoning AI Models Will Eventually Converge
“You know, I think if you look at like deep research, the original one and GPT-Five thinking on like high reasoning today, I think you'll see that like eventually the models all sort of converge in their capabilities.”
Nair: LLM agents will hit $1T before robotics hits $10B
“It feels like LLM agents are going to be like a trillion dollar market before robotics is maybe even like a ten billion dollar market.”
Nair: AI will probably reach human-level intelligence around 2030
“And actually, you know, it is, it's somewhere in the, like, twenty-thirty-ish thing that, like, it will probably reach, like, human level intelligence.”
Nair: OpenAI already possessed a superior model during the DeepSeek release
“The feeling in OpenAI is that like, well, I think we had a better model already at the time, right?”
Catanzaro: $100M+ AI seed rounds without roadmaps happen frequently
“Like upwards of a hundred million dollars in a seed round where you have a long-term vision, but not a near-term roadmap. This is something that I'm seeing happening not just occasionally, but quite Frequently.”
Yegge: Developer tooling will become agent orchestration dashboards
“So what it's going to be is it's going to be your agent orchestration dashboard. It's you're going to walk in in the morning and be like, yo, so how's it going to do, right? It's like, oh, that one's still running. That one's running a tool. That one needs my …”
Yegge: Automated factory farming of code will arrive by summer
“We will still get to factory farming code. With today's model's capabilities, and we'll get there fast, we'll get there by summer, but the models are getting smarter so fast.”
Yegge: Open source models will match Gemini 3 by next summer
“From what I've heard, they, they're seven months behind, and that, that gap is gradually narrowing. The frontier models, which means OSS models will be as good as Gemini three next summer.”
Zhang: AI models will handle simple vision natively, using tools for complexity
“I think at least I want to bet on, you know, running their work natively together, the future for simple, I would say for simple or even intermediate difficult vision tasks. For example, kind of counting with less than 20 objects. I think for this kind of simp…”
Pliny: Anthropic added a $20k–$30k bounty but withheld jailbreak data
“That whole thing ended with no open sourcing of data, but they did add a 30,000 or 20,000 dollar bounty, which I sort of sat myself out of, let the community go for it.”
John V: AI Security Startups Scrape BASI Discord to Build Guardrails
“Multiple organizations that have like popped up in the past, I would say two or three years for, you can call them like AI security startups, right? Like actively scrape that server to build out their guardrails or their security, like their suite of products”
Mirzadegan: 38 of 40 top Kleiner Perkins portfolio executives are first-timers
“Inside the KP portfolio, ok, are top eight companies. Let's take five exec roles across the top eight companies. Companies like Rippling and Glean, ok. 38 out of 40 of those roles, ok, those executives report to the CEO for the first time in their career.”
General Intuition's foundation agent runs purely on vision without reinforcement learning
“This is just a base model. There's no RL, no fine tuning. This model sees no game states. It is purely capable, not sequence acceptance. It's purely predicting the actions from the phrase. That's it.”
General Intuition action models turn internet videos into free training data
“We transferred it over to a real world video, which means that you can use any video on the internet as free training.”
Medal holds the internet's largest action-labeled video dataset by orders of magnitude
“We have sort of the largest data set of ground truth action labeled video footage on the internet by maybe one or two orders of magnitude.”
Text and speech generation will become actions emitted by world models
“I think text prediction is just one of the actions that is going to come out of these, you know, these policies and world models. I think speech and text generation will just be one of the actions that, that can be a part of that.”
Medal has more concurrent sim-drivers than Waymo has autonomous cars
“We have more people at any given time on metal playing with steering wheels and like truck simulator and these types of games than Waymo has cars on the road. It's a ridiculous stat, but it's true.”
General Intuition aims to drive 80% of AI physical interactions by 2030
“In the atoms to atoms stage, I want, like, I want GI models to be responsible for 80% of all the atoms to atoms interactions driven by AI models and the reason for that is because we were able to unblock intelligence so quickly, and robotics, like, intelligenc…”
Johnson: Nvidia Blackwell offers roughly same performance per watt as Hopper
“Like, if you look at the numbers, like, even going from Hopper to Blackwell, like, the performance per watt is about the same. They mostly make the number of transistors go up, and they make the chip size go up, and they make the power usage go up. But even fr…”
Li: Marble is the first public high-fidelity 3D generative world model
“It's the first in-class model in the world that generates three D worlds in this level of fidelity that is in the hands of the public.”
Hezarkhani: Tenex will have engineers making over $1M cash next year
“We will probably have more than one engineer make million dollars cash next year based on this model. And that is just with story point compensation. It's very likely that we will have more than a handful of folks make more than a million dollars next year.”
Sam Altman Barred Investors Who Backed Glean From Investing in OpenAI
“Sam Altman once came out and said, if you're an investor in OpenAI and one of these five companies, including Glean, we don't want you as an investor.”
AI Labs Will Not Dedicate Engineering Talent to Deep Enterprise Search
“If you really want to go deep, I don't think you will ever dedicate the people to do it. And the last thing I'll say is you think about from an anthropic engineer's perspective, you joined a big AI lab to work on models, not to build Google drive connectors, r…”
Anthropic Is the Fastest-Growing Software Company in History
“Anthropic is the fastest growing software company of all time. I think I can say that fairly. I'm, I haven't been disproven yet.”
Diffusion Models Achieve 80% of Autoregressive Quality at One-Tenth the Cost
“Diffusion models today are, I would say, 80 to 90% of the quality at one-tenth the cost and latency.”
OpenAI Plans to Scale Compute Power Capacity to 125 Gigawatts
“For OpenAI to go from like two gigawatts of compute this year to 30 with everything they've already announced, and then there's a plan for the next 125. Like, the United States uses 300.”
Vercel's v0 added $1M MRR every 14 days after chat rewrite
“When we launched V-Zero, the chat version, or the new V-Zero, whatever you want to call it it's like, 14 days, another million MRR, 14 days, another million MRR, it was like a rocket ship after that.”
Ravisankar: Tech hiring slope and junior demographics will rebound in six months
“I predict that you're going to see a very different chart on both the slope of the hiring curve, as well as the demographic of the type of hires in the next Six-ish months.”
HackerRank: Junior developer assessments and interviews are up 20-25% year-over-year
“Are companies sending assessments to junior versus senior? How many people they are interviewing? It's grown about 20 to 25% year over year relative to all of the other, other news, news items that you see on social media, where it's like, hey, declining, ever…”
Ravisankar: AI-native companies are the least AI-forward in technical hiring processes
“The AI native or AI forward companies are the least AI forward when it comes to interviewing at high end process.”
Ravisankar: Human craft will become more valuable as AI advances
“I actually think the more AI becomes powerful, the more valuable human craft and other elements are going to become because people are going to easily determine, oh, this is all done by AI. I'm just going to attribute a lower value.”
Zuckerberg: AI could help cure all diseases long before century's end
“And I do think that at the pace that, that AI is improving things, I mean, I think it might be possible significantly sooner than that. I mean, I don't think it's necessarily worth putting a number on it or a date”
Zuckerberg: Specialized virtual cell models will merge into a biological Omni model
“I would imagine you're taking these different types of virtual cell models and eventually merging them into the equivalent of like a biological Omni model, kind of like how on the language model side, you had people that did language and then, you know, people…”