The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Medal has more concurrent sim-drivers than Waymo has autonomous cars
“We have more people at any given time on metal playing with steering wheels and like truck simulator and these types of games than Waymo has cars on the road. It's a ridiculous stat, but it's true.”
Pim de Witte Dec 6, 2025 ▶ 54:36 World Models & General Intuition: Khosla's largest bet since LLMs & OpenAI
Opinion
Schluntz: High vehicle costs make Waymo's per-car profitability doubtful
“Those cars are expensive. It's not about if you can hit profitability, it's about your cash conversion cycles. Like is building one Waymo, like how cheap can you make that compared to like how much you're earning sort of as the equivalent of what an Uber drive…”
Erik Schluntz Nov 28, 2024 ▶ 1:09:35 The new Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Computer Use, and Building SOTA Agents — with Erik Schluntz, Anthropic
Opinion
Schluntz: AI robotics today is where autonomous driving was 10 years ago
“I think where we are right now is where self-driving cars were 10 years ago. I think we have very cool demos that work. I mean, 10 years ago, you had videos of people driving a car on the highway, driving a car, you know, on a street with a safety driver, but …”
Erik Schluntz Nov 28, 2024 ▶ 1:02:19 The new Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Computer Use, and Building SOTA Agents — with Erik Schluntz, Anthropic
Disclosure
Jeff Dean: Gemini was designed to ingest Waymo LIDAR and robotics telemetry
“I think one of the things about Gemini's multimodal aspects is we've always wanted it to be multimodal from the start. And so, you know, that sometimes to people means text and images and video sort of human-like and audio, audio, human-like modalities, but I …”
Jeff Dean Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 16:56 The AI Frontier: from Gemini 3 Deep Think distilling to Flash — Jeff Dean
Opinion
Younis: Waymo is setting a high safety benchmark for autonomous vehicles
“I think companies like Waymo are doing a lot of, you know, service positively to the industry in the sense of they're setting a high benchmark and they're showing, you know, kind of in a very responsible way, how to deal with these.”
Qasar Younis Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 35:46 The $15B Physical AI Company: Simulation, Autonomy OS, Neural Sim, & 1K Engineers—Applied Intuition
Assertion Supported
Rajpal: Waymo had 20 million real-world miles versus 20 billion in simulation
“Like Waymo had twenty million miles in the real World driving, but twenty billion miles in simulation.”
Shreya Rajpal Sep 25, 2025 ▶ 2:27 ⚡️Snowglobe: Simulations for your AI
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