why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Royzen: AI dev tools do not need to own the IDE
“Somewhere where I disagree with him is that you need to own the IDE. I think like he made kind of some good points about, you know, not having platform risk in the long term, but some of the, you know, features that were mentioned, like suggesting diffs, for e…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Developers will eventually spend 80% of their time controlling agents outside IDEs
“I think in the future, at some point, my guess is that the IDE is going to become less of the focal point and more like an app that you can launch when you need to dig in deeper, but you spend most of your time away from it. So maybe 80% of your time is in a w…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mohan: Codeium generated dynamic PNGs due to VS Code API limitations
“On VS Code, actually, the problem for us wasn't actually being able to implement the feature. We had the feature for a while. Problem was actually even to show the feature, VS Code would not expose an API for us to do this. So what we actually ended up doing w…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Slack: In-editor UI fix buttons will not matter in 6 to 12 months
“I don't think that that interaction is a really important way that people are gonna be interacting with AI in six months or 12 months.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mohan: Codeium bypassed VS Code API limits by rendering Supercomplete via PNGs
“Problem was actually even to show the feature VS code would not expose an API for us to do this. So what we actually ended up doing was dynamically generating PNGs to actually go out and showcase this.”
Opinion
Rizwan: Maintaining a VS Code fork is notoriously difficult and resource-intensive
“No, I actually like pity anybody that has to fork VS Code because Microsoft makes it like notoriously difficult to maintain these forks. So a lot of resources and efforts go into just maintaining, keeping your fork up to date with all the updates that VS Code …”
Opinion
Sobo: The ecosystem needs open agent APIs, not more VS Code forks
“Something that would make me happy is that instead of one more fork of VS code, people just had a great API for surfacing a great agent experience into a tool that was welcoming to that. We don't need to be sharp elbowed about controlling all of that.”
Insight
Ramachandran: Tracking developer trajectory allows AI to infer intent without prompting
“If we're actually being able to understand the kind of the trajectory of what developers are doing within the editor, right, if we actually are being able to see, like, oh, the developer just went and opened up this part of the directory and tried to view it, …”
What-if
Building a custom IDE would cost AI coding startups $100M
“If like Cursor or Devon would have to build their own VS code, that'd cost a hundred million dollars, you know? Call me back in five years.”
Assertion Supported
Mohan: The Windsurf Editor is a direct fork of VS Code
“It is a fork of VS Code, and yes, We do know the memes. But there wasn't a need to rebuild everything from scratch.”
Assertion Supported
Mohan: In-terminal AI commands were impossible to build in VS Code
“We literally couldn't do that. In VS Code.”
Insight
Rizwan: MCP turns Cline into a general-purpose 'everything agent'
“Even though it's a VS Code extension and a coding agent, MCP kind of lets it function as this everything agent where it can connect to, you know, whatever services and things like that. And that's really a side effect of having very general prompts just in the…”
Disclosure
Ball: Sourcegraph internal usage split 50/50 between CLI and VS Code
“We had, like, an internal poll last week at our company meetup where Beyang was asking who of you uses the CLI and who of you uses VS Code, and it was a fifty-fifty split”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hou: Codeium garnered a couple million users across editor extensions
“So we garnered a couple million users on our VS Code, JetBrains, Vim, Emacs extensions.”
Disclosure
Rizwan: Cline is expanding from VS Code to JetBrains, Neovim, and CLI
“Klein's an open source coding agent. It's a VS Code extension right now, but it's coming to JetBrains and NeoVim and CLI.”