The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Manning: OpenAI's Sora cannot produce compelling gameplay or persistent mechanics
“Don't think you can take Sora and produce compelling gameplay, right? If you want to have a world that you can wander around in a bit, you're good, but what are your abilities to have gameplay mechanics implemented the way you'd like them to be, and to have th…”
Chris Manning Apr 2, 2026 ▶ 52:02 Moonlake: Interactive, Multimodal World Models — with Chris Manning and Fan-yun Sun
Opinion
Fal CEO: Newer Video Models Are Now Much Better Than OpenAI's Sora
“Now we have video models that are much better than Sora.”
Gorkem Yurtseven Sep 8, 2025 ▶ 31:10 A Technical History of Generative Media
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brockman: Post-AGI humans will survive without work, but compute will differentiate capability
“And so I think that the question of exactly how, you know, if you don't do work, do you survive? I think the answer will be yes. You'll have plenty of material, your material needs met. But I think the question of Can you do more? Can you have not just generat…”
Greg Brockman Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 1:06:26 Greg Brockman on OpenAI's Road to AGI
Assertion Contradicted
OpenAI Spent $7 Billion on Compute, With $5 Billion for R&D
“This year, OpenAI spent seven billion dollars on compute. Only two of that was for all of their inference. The remaining five was R&D. So all of ChatGPT, all eight hundred million users, all of Sora, all of like, all, all the sort of like API volume, two billi…”
Shawn Wang Nov 14, 2025 ▶ 1:17:40 Anthropic, Glean & OpenRouter: How AI Moats Are Built with Deedy Das of Menlo Ventures
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