why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Hong: Lean and Rust yield superior reinforcement learning convergence over Python
“If you want proof to be informal math, It's very annoying, because then that's, like, just makes objective function. Your code is something like Python, your proof is, say, natural language, math proof. You will not have very strong RL kind of performance, rig…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lattner says Mojo is 10,000x faster than Python and beats Rust
“Mojo is not just a little faster than Python, it's faster than Rust. So it's like tens of thousands of times faster than Python, and it's in the Python family.”
Opinion
Huber: No AI coding tools are particularly good at Rust
“So far we've still not found that really any AI coding tools are particularly good at rust though.”
Insight
Fredrikson: Formal software verification takes 10 to 20 times longer than Python
“The reason people don't do it is that it's not easy and it's not fun, right? It takes you like 10 or 20 times as long to like fight with the type checker, which is essentially like proving that you don't have a vulnerability as if, as it would if you just like…”
Disclosure
Colvin wrote 30,000 lines of Rust for Monty over Christmas using AI
“This is a crazy world where you can sit down over Christmas and write 30,000 lines of rust that, that is actually powerful and useful.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2028
Colvin: Rust-native data storage could yield 3x to 5x Pydantic speedup
“We have plans to move some of the, basically store the data in rust types after validation. Not convert to Python types. So then if you were doing like validation and then serialization, you would never have to go via a Python type. We reckon that can give us …”
Assertion Supported
Yang: SWE-bench Multilingual spans nine languages across roughly 40 repositories
“Yeah, multilingual, it's like nine languages across, like, 40 repos, but yeah, you got them, like, JavaScript, Rust, Java, C, you know, Ruby.”
Disclosure
Huber: Chroma is written in Rust and uses object storage
“Chrome is written in Rust. It's fully multi-tenant. We have, we use object storage as a key Assistance tier and, like, data layer for Chroma distributed in Chroma Cloud as well.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zach Lloyd: Warp relies on over one million lines of Rust code
“Warp is over a million lines of Rust code, and this is like, up until very recently, this type of agentic stuff just did not work in Warp because it's not built on any public UI framework, like we have our own internal UI framework, and so it really needs to u…”
Assertion Supported
Sobo: Zed engineered an editor from scratch to 500,000 lines of Rust
“And we've essentially engineered an entire editor from an empty repo to up to about over a half a million lines of rust.”