why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Enterprise AI skepticism will surge without clear returns within a year
“I do think that based on what we are hearing from customers, if we're not seeing returns in like a year or something, there will be more skepticism. So I think there is like a it is time bound, if you will, so.”
Insight
Hsu: Most global software engineers write internal-facing code
“Most of the software engineers in the world and most of the code-written in the world actually goes towards these internal facing applications.”
Opinion
Hsu: AI coding assistants only speed up development by 10% to 20%
“If you talk to most engineers today, like, a lot of engineers do use Copilot but if you ask them, like, how much time does Copilot save you, it's not like coding is tenx faster than before. You know, coding is maybe, like, 10% faster, maybe 20% faster, or some…”
Assertion Partly supported
Retool survey found GPT-4V NPS was around 14 vs 45 for GPT-4
“GPT-IV.V. MPS, I want to say it was, like, 14 or something, like, it was, like, not high, actually. But the GPT-IV MPS thing was, like, 45 or something like that”
Disclosure
Retool changed its north star metric from revenue to active developers
“Our growth star metric used to always be, sort of revenue-generated, or in a new AR-generated. We actually changed it to be number of developers building on the platform, actually, last year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Every internal enterprise app will be AI-infused within three years
“Practically every app, every internal app especially, is going to be AI infused over the next, like, three years.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hsu: Open-source AI infrastructure and tooling is going to win
“We think the open source movement in AI, especially when it comes to all the supporting infrastructure, is going to win.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hsu: 95% of Retool customers are developers
“Like, 95% of our customers actually are developers, actually.”
Disclosure
Retool has internal docs barring employees from using the term 'low code'
“We actually hate the low code moniker. We actually never, in fact, we have docs saying we will never use it internally. Or even to customers.”
Disclosure
Hsu: Roughly half of Retool's early 20-40 employees were former founders
“One thing we did actually early on that I think has paid a lot of dividends, especially, you know, which was a lot larger now is we hired a lot of former founders. So I want to say like when we were, I don't know, 2030, 40 people, we were probably like half fo…”
Disclosure
Hsu: Retool has 11 separate business units using its platform at Amazon
“Today at Amazon, actually, we have, I think, 11 separate business units that use Retool at this point”
Insight
Hsu: Developers prefer modular building blocks over finished end solutions
“I think one huge advantage of some of the developers is that they actually don't, like, developers don't want to be given an end solution. They want to be given the building blocks to themselves to build the end solution.”
Disclosure
Reggio: Brex built its internal operational AI management platform in Retool
“Most of the UI UX for this platform is built in retool. And so like you can basically go into retool and there's like a prompt manager, a tool manager, an eval manager.”
Disclosure
Hsu: Retool had 5-6 years of runway paying founders $30k-$40k
“I think that at that point we had raised something like maybe a million dollars, maybe a million and a half coming out of YC. So, I mean, to us to people, you know, that was a huge amount of money. I was like, wow, like how are you ever gonna spend a million a…”
Disclosure
Retool skipped its initial YC Demo Day due to having zero traction
“So we were supposed to present at the March demo day, but then we basically felt like we had nothing really going on and no traction. We had no customers. And so we're like, okay, well, why don't we, you know, take six months to go find all that before present…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hsu: Retool has never built custom features for a single customer
“We have, I think, basically never built anything specific for one customer”