why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Krause: AI models are not a moat in science, experiments are
“However, we think in science, models aren't remote, experiments are.”
Insight
Krause: No AI model can one-shot materials for iPhones or Starship
“And this is what's so hard is there is no one model that can one shot a new material that ends up in your iPhone or that ends up on Starship.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krause: Radical AI enables one PhD to run 10 simultaneous alloy campaigns
“We can have one PhD in metallurgy or alloys run 10 campaigns at a time. When I was in a PhD, we had 10 scientists focused on one campaign. One research problem at a time.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krause: Large Alloy Manufacturers Are Bearish on AI for Science Hype
“We do talk to a lot of companies in our field who make materials at scale in, in the alloy space who are thinking about this, and they look at it from a different lens. You know, they're not all hype on AI for science, and actually I'd say a lot of them are ki…”
Disclosure
Major instrument vendors previously refused to give Radical AI data access
“A few very big tool vendors were Not too excited about self-driving labs two years ago. They were not jumping to give us, even with payment, access to the software and pulling the data. That tone has now changed.”
Insight
Krause: Autonomous Labs Require Deep Integration, Not Just Robotic Arms
“It's not about a robot in front of a tool. Go ahead, put a robotic arm in front of a tool and then watch what happens. Everything else I just talked about will come the second you do that. Now we feel so much farther ahead from the industry on really running s…”
Insight
Krause: Physical synthesis and testing are the only ground truth in materials
“In materials, the ground truth is the material itself. You have to be able to make it, you have to be able to test it and characterize it, and then you have to really, at one point, be able to see if it can go into a real application if you're going to have it…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krause: Radical AI models explore previously unpublished alloy families
“And then we have a second overlay on that chart of where our AI scientist has gone. And it's moved into elemental families or alloy families. No one has ever published on before.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krause: Radical AI made 1,200 alloys in six months, with 300 novel
“We probably made 1200 alloys in the last five or six months. 300 of those alloys are new novel, never before seen in literature. And I'd say probably 10 of those alloys had performance that Has got us very excited on where they're going to be in the industry.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krause: Heavy industries have used the same alloys for 50 years
“And there has been, you know, for the past 50 years, the same alloys used in all these industries. And the reason why is these long discovery timelines we talked about.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Krause: Novel alloys will reach defense and space systems in 3-5 years
“I would say something on the alloy side, like aerospace, we feel good opportunity three to five year timeline. Yeah, correct. I think it'll be an application, not like manned flight. Like, I don't think it'll be a jet turbine because of the constraints there w…”
Opinion
Krause: The real opportunity in materials AI is closed-loop manufacturing integration
“That is what we think the true opportunity is for AI and autonomy in materials is linking those two together in a fully closed loop system.”
Disclosure
Krause: Radical AI developed a hafnium-free alternative to C-103 aerospace alloy
“We've worked on that problem specifically, and we have successfully done that.”
Assertion Supported
Krause: Radical AI's Matrix VLM boosts scientific reasoning by 5-16%
“Now we have actually seen this, and you can go read the publication, it's on archive, where the public data set that we used actually is showing improvements, like five to 16%, I believe, on general scientific reasoning.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krause: Radical AI generates all candidate materials via AI
“For generation, all of our materials are generated by our AI scientists today.”
Disclosure
Krause: Radical AI uses ChatGPT and Claude rather than custom LLMs
“We don't build custom LLMs. Of course, we use ChatGPT or Claude.”
Disclosure
Krause: Radical AI Custom-Built a High-Throughput Alloy Synthesis Tool
“We custom build a tool with a third party to do alloy synthesis and high throughput. That, that's, Built to do alloys. That's not built to do ceramics or polymers or any other material system today.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krause: Radical AI's Robots Autonomously Transfer Samples Across Lab Tools
“The same way a human scientist would come in, you know, look at the results, take the sample out and go to the next one. Our robots do that today.”