The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Pullen: CoScene's Genie outperforms OpenAI o1 out of the box on SWE-bench
“So it was obviously great to see, like, we still are better than O-one out of the box. You know, even with an older model, and I'm sure that that, that Delta will continue to grow once we're able to train O-one and once we've done more work on our dataset usin…”
Alistair Pullen Oct 4, 2024 ▶ 1:13:04 Building AGI in Real Time (OpenAI Dev Day 2024)
Assertion Supported
Shawn Lewis: o1 agent achieves 57% single-pass, 64% with parallel rollouts
“It solves, like, something like 57% of problems with a single Rollout and then using parallel rollouts and selecting the best one. With other techniques, we get something like 64%.”
Shawn Lewis Jan 28, 2025 ▶ 15:04 Beating OpenAI and Anthropic by Looking At Data: the new #1 on SWE-Bench w/ W&B CTO Shawn Lewis
Assertion Partly supported
Swyx: Claude Sonnet and Gemini Outperform o1-Preview in Coding
“Claude Sonnet so far is beating O-one on coding tasks without At least one preview without being a reasoning model and same for Gemini pro or Gemini two point O.”
Shawn Wang Jan 1, 2025 ▶ 37:15 2024 Year in Review: The Big Scaling Debate, the Four Wars of AI, Top Themes and the Rise of Agents
Assertion Supported
Cosine's fine-tuned GPT-4o scored higher on SWE-bench than OpenAI's original o1
“And then we also on this podcast, we interviewed Cosign that actually fine tune four O to, on three bench, sorry to achieve data on three bench. And that score was actually higher than O one when it came out.”
Shawn Wang Jan 24, 2025 ▶ 19:35 The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Reasoning Distillation: using DeepSeek R1 to beat OpenAI o1
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