The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Swix: OpenAI will issue a cryptocurrency token to fund compute
“There is still one more shoe to drop, which is the non sovereign wealth funding that open AI needs to get, which they've promised to drop by the end of this year. And my money is on, they have to do a coin. Like it's, I'm not a crypto guy at all, but like, y…”
Shawn Wang Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 49:13 Why RL Won — Kyle Corbitt, OpenPipe (acq. CoreWeave)
Assertion Contradicted
All major US AI labs stopped publishing research after OpenAI closed
“Whereas in the United States, since OpenAI closed their doors and stopped publishing, so did all the other labs.”
Andy Konwinski Dec 31, 2025 ▶ 19:25 [State of Research Funding] Beyond NSF, Slingshots, Open Frontiers — Andy Konwinski, Laude Institute
Assertion Contradicted
OpenAI Spent $7 Billion on Compute, With $5 Billion for R&D
“This year, OpenAI spent seven billion dollars on compute. Only two of that was for all of their inference. The remaining five was R&D. So all of ChatGPT, all eight hundred million users, all of Sora, all of like, all, all the sort of like API volume, two billi…”
Shawn Wang Nov 14, 2025 ▶ 1:17:40 Anthropic, Glean & OpenRouter: How AI Moats Are Built with Deedy Das of Menlo Ventures
Assertion Contradicted
Martin: OpenDeep Research is the top-ranked open-source Deep Research agent
“OpenDeep Research is a deep research agent that I've been working on for about a year, and it's now, according to Deep Research Spence, the best performing Deep Research agent at least on that particular benchmark. So it's pretty good. Listen, it's not as good…”
Lance Martin Sep 11, 2025 ▶ 8:32 Context Engineering for Agents - Lance Martin, LangChain
Assertion Contradicted
No commercial products augmented GPT models with custom data pre-ChatGPT
“Like I saw some people doing demos, but like in like a CLI or something like that, but there was no product doing like this model, but with additional data on top of it.”
Yasser Elsaid May 2, 2026 ▶ 2:59 ⚡️ Competing with ChatGPT and Sierra, building a $10M ARR company — Yasser Elsaid, Founder, Chatbase
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Swyx: OpenAI will always release both general and Codex model variants
“I'm pretty, like, have pretty high confidence that basically OpenAI will always release a GPT-V and a GPT-V codex.”
Shawn Wang Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 36:15 Inside AI’s $10B+ Capital Flywheel — Martin Casado & Sarah Wang of a16z
Assertion Contradicted
Brockman: OpenAI's Dota AI used only 300 million parameters
“And by the way, Dota was like a three hundred million parameter neural net. Tiny, tiny little insect brain, right?”
Greg Brockman Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 15:20 Greg Brockman on OpenAI's Road to AGI
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