The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sands: Switching to o3-mini saved Stripe $3M yearly on risk task
“Or we use, like GPT-IV-O, and it was, like, kind of a little bit expensive to justify the humans that it was replacing for a particular risk-related task, but then next thing we know, like, O-three mini is out, and it's, like, you know, three million dollars a…”
Emily Glassberg Sands Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 1:03:47 The Agents Economy Backbone - with Emily Glassberg Sands, Head of Data & AI at Stripe
Assertion Supported
Packer: Sleep-time compute offers Pareto improvements across Claude 3.7 and DeepSeek
“It's like pretty consistent across like both 3.7 deep seek, three mini, which all like the way you actually scale the x-axis here is fundamentally quite different in each case with 3.7 extended thinking mode. The parameter you provide to scale it is different …”
Charles Packer Apr 21, 2025 ▶ 26:27 Sleep-Time Compute — Letta AI (Charles Packer, Charlie Snell, Kevin Lin)
Opinion
OpenAI likely reaches frontier capabilities via search, then distills into mini models
“The only way you reach the frontier with the full size models of O-one and O-three is with that stuff. And then you can distill to the minis, the O-one mini, O-three mini. So in my writeup, I said like, maybe this is the formula for O-one mini, O-three mini. T…”
Shawn Wang Jan 24, 2025 ▶ 11:05 The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Reasoning Distillation: using DeepSeek R1 to beat OpenAI o1
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brown: Reasoning effort dropdowns will disappear from chat interfaces
“I think in chat interfaces, it probably won't stick around. Like, I don't think we're always going to have the dropdown of like Oath for many and Oath for many high. That feels silly.”
Will Brown May 23, 2025 ▶ 11:45 ⚡️Multi-Turn RL for Multi-Hour Agents — with Will Brown, Prime Intellect
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